I think you have an unrealistic and unfair set of expectations here. Most climate change models are designed to try and predict certain events over others - i.

I think you have an unrealistic and unfair set of expectations here. Most climate change models are designed to try and predict certain events over others - i.e. sea level rise, overall temperature change, etc. It doesn't really make sense to expect the IPCC to produce a model that accurately predicts drought in Panama (and no one is claiming they have?). There are a bunch of broad-stroke descriptions about climate change. Generalizations about what it may change. Those are what I invoked. We expect droughts to get worse. Specifically, though it's hard to say how or where or what, we should expect to see more 'rare' events (that are probably not 'rare' anymore but we kind of lack the data to check). I guess I would ask you if you apply this level of skepticism to any other predictive practice. Pairing general predictions ("more drought") with targeted models (estimates for sea level rise) is a pretty common practice.