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No, they aren't. The actual observations are that the climate is warming more slowly than the models predict--to the point where the actual warming is outside t
by pdonis 3y ago
No, they aren't. The actual observations are that the climate is warming more slowly than the models predict--to the point where the actual warming is outside the low end of the 95% confidence interval of the model predictions. Science has a term for models like that: "falsified".
- hotpotamus 3y agoExxon's models have proved fairly accurate https://m.xkcd.com/2500/ https://m.xkcd.com/2500/
- pdonis 3y agoDepends on which dataset you compare them to. The NOAA dataset in the xkcd shows about 0.6 C warming over Munroe's lifetime--but satellite datasets, for example this one [1], show only about half that. Also, the Exxon predictions are significantly less severe than the ones the alarmists are using. So if the Exxon predictions are taken as reasonably accurate, they are a reason to be less alarmist, not more. (And if the Exxon predictions are acknowledged to be overpredicting, then we have even less reason to be alarmist.) [1] https://judithcurry.com/2015/12/17/climate-models-versus-climate-reality/ https://judithcurry.com/2015/12/17/climate-models-versus-cli...