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>I'm curious: Do you think there is a realistic chance for another computer maker to catch up and overtake IBM in the computer space in the next few years or is
by Mistletoe 3y ago
>I'm curious: Do you think there is a realistic chance for another computer maker to catch up and overtake IBM in the computer space in the next few years or is their lead and expertise insurmountable at this point?
Nothing is insurmountable. :)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Innovator's_Dilemma https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Innovator's_Dilemma
>It describes how large incumbent companies lose market share by listening to their customers and providing what appears to be the highest-value products, but new companies that serve low-value customers with poorly developed technology can improve that technology incrementally until it is good enough to quickly take market share from established business.
- wolframhempel 3y agoI'm aware, but I'd argue that in addition to the competitive moats described by Hamilton Helmer (7 powers guy) there is a real moat in unique technological expertise in the chip industry. E.g. the chip making machines that ASML makes or the 3nm chips that TSMC produces have reached a level of sophistication that will take 3+ years for competitors to replicate, thus granting them a sort of quasi monopoly for the foreseeable future.
- huijzer 3y agoI‘s say those are covered by Helmer with scale power. Spending millions on tiny process optimizations or other research is possible due to the large revenue streams that are coming in. For example, in terms of scale economies, only when you sell thousands high end GPUs per month you can hire people to write highly optimized compilers.
- wolframhempel 3y agoMaybe - though I think it's more of a cornered resource. You have specialized knowledge that attracts specialized people which create more specialized knowledge. Creates a sorta feedback loop.