6 ms·

Ray Dalio ran Bridgewater like the global strongmen he admired

54 points by rwmj 3y ago

civilitty 3y ago
Discussion from a similar article six days ago: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38181408 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38181408 There must be an ongoing PR push.
- keep_reading 3y ago
  Ray Dalio may be a slimeball, but he's not wrong about macroeconomics. Someone wants you to not like him and not listen to his advice.
  - piva00 3y ago
    Or someone just wants to tell the world he's a fucking slimeball. It doesn't need a larger conspiracy, sometimes just selling a compelling story can be enough.
  - beebmam 3y ago
    This is easy to rebut. He is wrong about macroeconomics. But that's because every macroeconomic theory is wrong by design. It is impossible to come up with a macroeconomic model that perfectly describes reality because economic realities are far too complex to be modelled. That doesn't mean there is zero truth or value to these models, but it means they are certainly wrong, and that is is healthy to approach all macroeconomic analysis with a critical mind.
    - toomuchtodo 3y ago
      And some emotional models attempt/desire to attribute skill to what was luck, converting that to status. If you’re wealthy, what else do you have left to chase? You can't buy it, but the money helps (Michael Bloomberg spent $900M attempting to become POTUS and still failed [1], for example). [1] https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/488767-bloomberg-spent-over-900-million-on-presidential-campaign/ https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/488767-bloomberg-spent...
    - keep_reading 3y ago
      You're correct, it is impossible to design a model which is why we need to kill the central banks as they think they do have a model that is trustworthy.
  - jackcosgrove 3y ago
    I tried to understand his money pump model, but could not. On the other hand I can better understand neoclassical macroeconomic models. Maybe Ray's model is going over my head, but at this point I would trust what is taught in the textbooks rather than what Dalio says whenever the two diverge.
  - cko 3y ago
    Here's a rebuttal of his analysis on China, for example: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s1iv0q_SW3E https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s1iv0q_SW3E
  - rurp 3y ago
    There's no need for conspiracy theories when there's a clear and mundane explanation. The PR push for a new book generated a lot of interest which has resulted in a number of articles and conversations. That's it. At some point the cycle will move on and attention on Dalio will settle back near the level it was at a year ago.
- alangibson 3y ago
  There's a new book out about Dalio and his "principles"
GreedClarifies 3y ago
There are various interviews with the author (Rob Copeland). It sounds like Dalio killed his puppy. I don't know what happened but Copeland seems to hate him. In interviews he mostly seems level headed, but intermittently he lets the façade drop. I do wonder how he is getting the funds for such a media blitz. Does he have a tremendous number of friends in the media, is he independently wealthy, or is someone backing him?
- renewiltord 3y ago
  He’s releasing a new book. Anyone promoting this is just a host for a parasitic meme. Stop the spread.
- 6stringmerc 3y ago
  Uh, Ray Dalio has been known to be a "piece of work" even in the finance industry for well over a decade. He was making headlines for being a self-important pseudo-intellectual-swami back when I was working munis around 2008. It's not just this author - ahem, I'll take a crack at it: Ray Dalio is a perfect example of a person being analytically and synthetically successful and otherwise covering for severe character defects like Steve Jobs and in the big picture guys look like him are a fucking joke and anybody who takes them seriously as "leaders" should be smacked around a few times with a hardcover biography of Teddy Roosevelt. Dalio might not be able to juggle but he's still a clown who gets clicks.
  - michtzik 3y ago
    Saying Ray Dalio is a "fucking joke" like Steve Jobs isn't the burn you think it is.
    - 6stringmerc 3y ago
      No, Steve was a textbook sociopath and I'm glad that motherfucker is dead so he can't steal any more livers from deserving people. Steve isn't really a joke unless you like "That isn't my daughter" and "Haha I conspire to keep wages down" and "fuck musicians I need a yacht" is comedy. I can go on and on because I'm glad he never got to see that yacht. He was a cancer. Intellectual cancer.
karaterobot 3y ago
> In a posh New York apartment, Lee Kuan Yew was discussing global affairs when his dinner companion asked the former Singaporean prime minister whose governing model he most admired. Lee gave an unlikely answer: Vladimir Putin, who had stabilized Russia after the chaotic collapse of the Soviet Union. > To Ray Dalio, sitting across the table, the analogy would have been seamless. There's been a few really good, long-form articles on Ray Dalio and Bridgewater recently. It's reassuring to see there's room for one that's not as good as them to also make it onto the front page of HN. For the sake of completeness, if nothing else, and because maybe they'll interest people in reading those better articles, and the book they are in service of.
- dmix 3y ago
  > It's reassuring to see there's room for one that's not as good It's not necessarily bad to seek inspiration from strong leader archetype when it's applied to business though (even though comparing someone to Putin on social media is like calling them Hitler today, but IRL there's more nuance). Companies aren't democracies. Even companies with experimental decentralized structures like Valve still ultimately have a single person at the top making important calls. Of course the overtly-negative stuff like not tolerating dissent is another question. But most people don't seek to draw inspiration from other famous leaders by trying to copy their worst negative traits. You tend to take the cream from the top from multiple people, ditch the negative attributes, and assemble a new whole.
  - rurp 3y ago
    Putin's whole system is enforced through limiting civil liberties, murdering people he doesn't like, and other behavior that is widely considered abhorrent. I don't really see how you can learn much from the other parts of the system without considering the foundation they are built on.
6stringmerc 3y ago
...and yet he's still a chump compared to Ren Tech. Dalio reminds me of Timothy Leary high on his own supply and probably the kind of person I avoid in social situations. Who do I admire? Check out the MSRB leadership, Bond Dealers Association...you know, folks who build schools and roads. Dalio's legacy is like Ozymandias but near as I can tell that windbag ain't built shit.
- hprotagonist 3y ago
  Not even any shattered remains of statuary.
- qeternity 3y ago
  > ...and yet he's still a chump compared to Ren Tech. I mean, they are completely different beasts.
  - 6stringmerc 3y ago
    Right, Renaissance is built on some smart people getting together in private and doing their work. Dalio's appeal is the same as Cohen and Rajat because hype and image work around a bunch of easily conned geeks. I'll go all in - Ray Dalio is a legally legitimate version of Lou Pearlman without the Boy Bands. BONUS: Ray's "be a prick and call it constructive" philosophy spread. I know this because I interviewed with Vari. FKA a startup known as VariDesk. Maybe some here know about it? So they talked big about their new office furniture pivot - names like Goldman Sachs - and I did some research. You know, legit players in the business. This is Dallas. Serious money is here serious people are here. Well at Vari they are sure to mention they embrace the Dalio inspired communication technique... "Oh? Honestly, they're not even on my radar - they're not even close to being a player. Their quality is awful and their SKU list? Nope, Goldman Sachs would laugh them out of the room." So after Vari ghosted me I made sure to give them the legit treatment: "Here in Texas, we would call your pitch a bunch of happy horse shit."
Eumenes 3y ago
Was invited to interview at Bridgewater 10 years ago and the HR person said the interviews are recorded via video. I noped TF out of that fast.
V__ 3y ago
> [Asked] “How do you deal with this war criminal?” > Don’t be so simpleminded, Dalio replied. He told her to keep her emotions in check, as The Principles prescribed. “If you’re so smart,” he sniffed, “why aren’t you rich?” It was a line Dalio had used countless times before. I enjoyed reading his principles and his newsletter has some interesting insights but then you read something like this and you wonder how people walk the line between idiot and smart so freely.
- pixl97 3y ago
  >how people walk the line between idiot and smart so freely. Lack of immediate repercussions, is what I've seen in my life.
- mlinhares 3y ago
  I think the problem here is that we assume that people that are "smart" in one thing are smart in everything and this is not true at all. People "smarts" seem to be very specific and the myth of the "Renaissance man/polymath genius" is very uncommon.
- xyzelement 3y ago
  I can explain this as a former BW employee who knows the people involved. Ray's whole thing is intellectual humility: “Before I begin telling you what I think, I want to establish that I’m a “dumb shit” who doesn’t know much relative to what I need to know. Whatever success I’ve had in life has had more to do with my knowing how to deal with my not knowing than anything I know.” [0] One of the concepts for dealing with this is "believability weighting." ie: you may think we should do X, and I think we should do Y, but if out of the two of us, you're the one who's solved this problem - we weigh your opinion more. So what Ray is doing here, is reminding Karen to be intellectually humble - in response to her asserting an opinion. Kinda like "don't believe everything you think." He's saying it in this way because logically "if you knew everything, you'd win every single trade and be ridiculously rich" (to be clear, Karen was co-head of research at the time and quite wealthy) [0] https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/9871858-before-i-begin-telling-you-what-i-think-i-want https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/9871858-before-i-begin-tell...
solidsnack9000 3y ago
Dalio offered to set up a similar system for the Russians. Gref expressed intrigue and suggested that he might be able to introduce Dalio to Putin at the Russian leader’s palace in the resort town of Sochi. Expressed "intrigue"?
- esafak 3y ago
  Interest.
tempsy 3y ago
I don't really understand their portfolio at all. 700+ positions (comically overdiversified), top 2 holdings is the S&P and an emerging markets ETF that make up 11% of the portfolio. Why does anyone pay a premium for this over holding the S&P or a total world ETF. https://hedgefollow.com/funds/Bridgewater+Associates https://hedgefollow.com/funds/Bridgewater+Associates
- smallnamespace 3y ago
  If you think they are good at picking winners at scale then many small bets makes sense, like a VC fund. Of course it's harder to tell if they're doing any work since they're not private investments, but many VC funds also ride coattails without adding much alpha.
  - toomuchtodo 3y ago
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oFPMvlLlkyY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oFPMvlLlkyY Less than five minutes, but gets the point across. Skip to 2:50 for visual.
  - tempsy 3y ago
    This is not anything like a VC fund. 700+ positions in mostly large mature companies is so overly diversified that it would be near impossible to deviate too far from S&P or a world index.
- yieldcrv 3y ago
  in my experience investing in hedge funds, there is no accurate way to tell what an individual investor actually gets the reference performance from fund inception is a pretty poor proxy if you were not a limited partner from inception side pockets can be the greatest of all time
pavlov 3y ago
The survivorship bias effect is so strong, there doesn’t seem to be any point in admiring hedge fund managers. We have millions of people professionally throwing dice in the stock market. A few of them will be very successful and become billionaires. But there’s not much benefit to society, and nothing interesting to emulate. The best thing might be to ignore these people who seem to endlessly crave attention and respect for their purported achievements.
spaceman_2020 3y ago
I don’t see a problem with a private company being run according to the whims and fancies of its founder - as long as no workers were exploited or laws broken
- adfgjiuobniou 3y ago
  It's just stupid. The resources this guy controls could do some real good in the world. Instead they're being squandered.
  - voldacar 3y ago
    What does he owe you?
  - spaceman_2020 3y ago
    Same could be said for any number of billionaires
- compiler-guy 3y ago
  He can run it however he wants as long as it's legal, but that doesn't free him from analysis and criticism.
  - spaceman_2020 3y ago
    That’s true too. That analysis is also important in case anyone wants to learn how to (or how NOT to) run a company
- rurp 3y ago
  I don't think I have seen any comments saying that he should be legally barred from running his own company this way. It's more about people commenting on what a weird toxic environment it sounds like there and speculating that Dalio probably isn't nearly as skilled an investor as he thinks he is.
spir 3y ago
I admire Ray Dalio's principles and his effort to promote public education around his principles and macroeconomics. If more rich successful people tried help educate the public the way Ray does, the world would be a better place.
- throw0101c 3y ago
  > I admire Ray Dalio's principles and his effort to promote public education around his principles and macroeconomics. Are his principles actually true? Accurate? I ask because Bridgewater does not use them in any of their trading strategies.
  - spir 3y ago
    For one thing, he wrote a picture book of his principles, and I think it's terrific https://www.amazon.com/Principles-Success-Ray-Dalio/dp/1982147210 https://www.amazon.com/Principles-Success-Ray-Dalio/dp/19821...
xyzelement 3y ago
As a former BW employee, it's amusing to see an article every day because this guy wrote a book about the fund. It's definitely a Gell-Mann amnesia type thing[0]. Imagine you're someone who does cross-fit and you read an article about "a group of people being forced to get up at 5 in the morning to rapidly lift heavy things until they are exhausted" - you'd go "wow that sounds horrible" but then "wait, I chose to do this and I love what it does for me." Bridgewater is a super rigorous place to work where you know exactly where you stand due to direct feedback and practices that hold up failure as a fodder for learning (different than punishment.) That's not for everyone - even I had trouble "metabolizing" it at times but overall it's a great way to operate. BW is a great place to work for the right people. I loved my few years there and I say this even though I got fired eventually. It has made me much stronger and set me up for ongoing success elsewhere. [0]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Crichton#Gell-Mann_amnesia_effect https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Crichton#Gell-Mann_amn...
- chikitabanana 3y ago
  I don't think you should've been downvoted. The articles covering this topic all seem intent on painting Bridgewater as the Branch Davidians of Wall St. (a view I somewhat agree with), so it's nice to see another perspective. If you have some time, can you answer my questions: - How was your time there? - What was your role at the company? - What was the interview process like? - Can you describe what a normal day looked like for you? - How often did you interact with RD? - What was the book's biggest mischaracterization/exaggeration of RD/BW? - What was the book's most accurate assessment? - Why did you get fired? What was the firing process like (any NDAs/noncompetes)?
  - xyzelement 3y ago
    Happy to answer your questions in general: // How was your time there? I found it challenging but worthwhile. Bridgewater drowns you in feedback even if you're an amazing performer, so you're constantly aware of your good and bad patterns. Obviously some of that stuff is hard to hear because your ego fights it being true, but I found a few areas where I really embraced the feedback and improved myself not just as an employee but as a person. EG, I am more decisive, more aware of my propensity to over-analyze and the real impact it can have on things, etc. Some of the stuff was deeper but too much context to explain. // - What was your role at the company? I was brought in as a senior tech IC with an eye to take the space on as a manager. // - What was the interview process like? I think it was fairly specific to me and my role to be honest. One big thing obviously is the firm is very focused on screening out people who are not interested in operating in this culture of growth and transparency. // - Can you describe what a normal day looked like for you? In terms of time allocation, not that different than my prior job at a fintech or subsequent FAANG. Every colleague was very smart and communication was very high-bandwidth. I really appreciated being able to say "you are confusing me" or "this doesn't make sense to do because X" -- and have people say this stuff to me -- without hesitation. It was very good to know where you stand and have no barrier to let others know what you are thinking. // - How often did you interact with RD? I was in a few large meetings where he was in and otherwise had a chat w him at a picnic table outside the office on a sunny day. I think he was sitting there smoking a pipe before I came to say hi. // What was the book's biggest mischaracterization/exaggeration of RD/BW? I didn't read the book and based on the articles I see coming from it, I have zero interest. But mainly, BW culture is legitimately not for everybody and not even for most people. The mistake people make it hearing about how it works and instead of deciding "wow, that's not for me" - they decide "wow, that's terrible." An analogy I have is something like - imagine someone told you about an olympian's training regiment, diet, etc. You'd probably go "wow what a horrible life" - but the olympian loves it because that type of rigor is necessary for the kind of performance they seek to attain. Obviously working at BW is not the olympics but as an analogy it works. // - What was the book's most accurate assessment? Similar to above, it sounds like the book describes certain processes and attributes of the culture and then tells you "and that's terrible" whereas the folks who work there love these aspects of the culture and connect it to their personal growth, company success, etc. // Why did you get fired? What was the firing process like (any NDAs/noncompetes)? When COVID hit, we downsized the tech department of my business. I was legitimately the weakest person of my role in my area so it was right for me to go. I don't say this as false modesty, I am good at what I do but the other people were even better. The firing was super respectful, I got to pick my exit date and had very generous severance. BW has a fairly standard non-compete that I signed when I joined (I had thought about it for a while and decided it was a worthwhile risk.) Mainly, if I wanted to go to another fund for a similar role, they were likely to block it. The further afield I went, the less of an issue there was. I had two jobs in the non-compete period (2 years) and BW signed off on both within the same day. Happy to share anything else
boeingUH60 3y ago
[flagged]
dilyevsky 3y ago
My favorite part is when dalio setup the “trustworthiness score” that worked a bit like PageRank but then some lowly employees ended up with higher “trustworthiness” than dalio himself. So he made them change the scoring such that it’s always capped at your manager. Principles my ass
bawana 3y ago
Very scary. He comes across as grandpa but in there is a lurking stalin struggling to get out. We all have bad and good in us. Even trump. Biden reminds me of Chamberlain and unfortunately the pain in America will elect more ‘dynamic’ and controlling politicians to stand up to the rising tide of the new fascism
MR4D 3y ago
Ray's style has merits but I think he takes it way too far. It might end up being his downfall. He has a pathological drive for getting to cause & effect decisions that humans aren't built for. At some point, he's going be start studying the East German security apparatus due to it's ability to know everything about it's people. Maybe he already has.

54 points by rwmj 3y ago

Discussion from a similar article six days ago: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38181408 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38181408 There must be an ongoing PR push.

keep_reading 3y ago
Ray Dalio may be a slimeball, but he's not wrong about macroeconomics. Someone wants you to not like him and not listen to his advice.
- piva00 3y ago
  Or someone just wants to tell the world he's a fucking slimeball. It doesn't need a larger conspiracy, sometimes just selling a compelling story can be enough.
- beebmam 3y ago
  This is easy to rebut. He is wrong about macroeconomics. But that's because every macroeconomic theory is wrong by design. It is impossible to come up with a macroeconomic model that perfectly describes reality because economic realities are far too complex to be modelled. That doesn't mean there is zero truth or value to these models, but it means they are certainly wrong, and that is is healthy to approach all macroeconomic analysis with a critical mind.
  - toomuchtodo 3y ago
    And some emotional models attempt/desire to attribute skill to what was luck, converting that to status. If you’re wealthy, what else do you have left to chase? You can't buy it, but the money helps (Michael Bloomberg spent $900M attempting to become POTUS and still failed [1], for example). [1] https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/488767-bloomberg-spent-over-900-million-on-presidential-campaign/ https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/488767-bloomberg-spent...
  - keep_reading 3y ago
    You're correct, it is impossible to design a model which is why we need to kill the central banks as they think they do have a model that is trustworthy.
- jackcosgrove 3y ago
  I tried to understand his money pump model, but could not. On the other hand I can better understand neoclassical macroeconomic models. Maybe Ray's model is going over my head, but at this point I would trust what is taught in the textbooks rather than what Dalio says whenever the two diverge.
- cko 3y ago
  Here's a rebuttal of his analysis on China, for example: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s1iv0q_SW3E https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s1iv0q_SW3E
- rurp 3y ago
  There's no need for conspiracy theories when there's a clear and mundane explanation. The PR push for a new book generated a lot of interest which has resulted in a number of articles and conversations. That's it. At some point the cycle will move on and attention on Dalio will settle back near the level it was at a year ago.
alangibson 3y ago
There's a new book out about Dalio and his "principles"

GreedClarifies 3y ago

There are various interviews with the author (Rob Copeland). It sounds like Dalio killed his puppy. I don't know what happened but Copeland seems to hate him. In interviews he mostly seems level headed, but intermittently he lets the façade drop. I do wonder how he is getting the funds for such a media blitz. Does he have a tremendous number of friends in the media, is he independently wealthy, or is someone backing him?

renewiltord 3y ago
He’s releasing a new book. Anyone promoting this is just a host for a parasitic meme. Stop the spread.
6stringmerc 3y ago
Uh, Ray Dalio has been known to be a "piece of work" even in the finance industry for well over a decade. He was making headlines for being a self-important pseudo-intellectual-swami back when I was working munis around 2008. It's not just this author - ahem, I'll take a crack at it: Ray Dalio is a perfect example of a person being analytically and synthetically successful and otherwise covering for severe character defects like Steve Jobs and in the big picture guys look like him are a fucking joke and anybody who takes them seriously as "leaders" should be smacked around a few times with a hardcover biography of Teddy Roosevelt. Dalio might not be able to juggle but he's still a clown who gets clicks.
- michtzik 3y ago
  Saying Ray Dalio is a "fucking joke" like Steve Jobs isn't the burn you think it is.
  - 6stringmerc 3y ago
    No, Steve was a textbook sociopath and I'm glad that motherfucker is dead so he can't steal any more livers from deserving people. Steve isn't really a joke unless you like "That isn't my daughter" and "Haha I conspire to keep wages down" and "fuck musicians I need a yacht" is comedy. I can go on and on because I'm glad he never got to see that yacht. He was a cancer. Intellectual cancer.

karaterobot 3y ago

> In a posh New York apartment, Lee Kuan Yew was discussing global affairs when his dinner companion asked the former Singaporean prime minister whose governing model he most admired. Lee gave an unlikely answer: Vladimir Putin, who had stabilized Russia after the chaotic collapse of the Soviet Union. > To Ray Dalio, sitting across the table, the analogy would have been seamless. There's been a few really good, long-form articles on Ray Dalio and Bridgewater recently. It's reassuring to see there's room for one that's not as good as them to also make it onto the front page of HN. For the sake of completeness, if nothing else, and because maybe they'll interest people in reading those better articles, and the book they are in service of.

dmix 3y ago
> It's reassuring to see there's room for one that's not as good It's not necessarily bad to seek inspiration from strong leader archetype when it's applied to business though (even though comparing someone to Putin on social media is like calling them Hitler today, but IRL there's more nuance). Companies aren't democracies. Even companies with experimental decentralized structures like Valve still ultimately have a single person at the top making important calls. Of course the overtly-negative stuff like not tolerating dissent is another question. But most people don't seek to draw inspiration from other famous leaders by trying to copy their worst negative traits. You tend to take the cream from the top from multiple people, ditch the negative attributes, and assemble a new whole.
- rurp 3y ago
  Putin's whole system is enforced through limiting civil liberties, murdering people he doesn't like, and other behavior that is widely considered abhorrent. I don't really see how you can learn much from the other parts of the system without considering the foundation they are built on.

6stringmerc 3y ago

...and yet he's still a chump compared to Ren Tech. Dalio reminds me of Timothy Leary high on his own supply and probably the kind of person I avoid in social situations. Who do I admire? Check out the MSRB leadership, Bond Dealers Association...you know, folks who build schools and roads. Dalio's legacy is like Ozymandias but near as I can tell that windbag ain't built shit.

hprotagonist 3y ago
Not even any shattered remains of statuary.
qeternity 3y ago
> ...and yet he's still a chump compared to Ren Tech. I mean, they are completely different beasts.
- 6stringmerc 3y ago
  Right, Renaissance is built on some smart people getting together in private and doing their work. Dalio's appeal is the same as Cohen and Rajat because hype and image work around a bunch of easily conned geeks. I'll go all in - Ray Dalio is a legally legitimate version of Lou Pearlman without the Boy Bands. BONUS: Ray's "be a prick and call it constructive" philosophy spread. I know this because I interviewed with Vari. FKA a startup known as VariDesk. Maybe some here know about it? So they talked big about their new office furniture pivot - names like Goldman Sachs - and I did some research. You know, legit players in the business. This is Dallas. Serious money is here serious people are here. Well at Vari they are sure to mention they embrace the Dalio inspired communication technique... "Oh? Honestly, they're not even on my radar - they're not even close to being a player. Their quality is awful and their SKU list? Nope, Goldman Sachs would laugh them out of the room." So after Vari ghosted me I made sure to give them the legit treatment: "Here in Texas, we would call your pitch a bunch of happy horse shit."

Eumenes 3y ago

Was invited to interview at Bridgewater 10 years ago and the HR person said the interviews are recorded via video. I noped TF out of that fast.

V__ 3y ago

> [Asked] “How do you deal with this war criminal?” > Don’t be so simpleminded, Dalio replied. He told her to keep her emotions in check, as The Principles prescribed. “If you’re so smart,” he sniffed, “why aren’t you rich?” It was a line Dalio had used countless times before. I enjoyed reading his principles and his newsletter has some interesting insights but then you read something like this and you wonder how people walk the line between idiot and smart so freely.

pixl97 3y ago
>how people walk the line between idiot and smart so freely. Lack of immediate repercussions, is what I've seen in my life.
mlinhares 3y ago
I think the problem here is that we assume that people that are "smart" in one thing are smart in everything and this is not true at all. People "smarts" seem to be very specific and the myth of the "Renaissance man/polymath genius" is very uncommon.
xyzelement 3y ago
I can explain this as a former BW employee who knows the people involved. Ray's whole thing is intellectual humility: “Before I begin telling you what I think, I want to establish that I’m a “dumb shit” who doesn’t know much relative to what I need to know. Whatever success I’ve had in life has had more to do with my knowing how to deal with my not knowing than anything I know.” [0] One of the concepts for dealing with this is "believability weighting." ie: you may think we should do X, and I think we should do Y, but if out of the two of us, you're the one who's solved this problem - we weigh your opinion more. So what Ray is doing here, is reminding Karen to be intellectually humble - in response to her asserting an opinion. Kinda like "don't believe everything you think." He's saying it in this way because logically "if you knew everything, you'd win every single trade and be ridiculously rich" (to be clear, Karen was co-head of research at the time and quite wealthy) [0] https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/9871858-before-i-begin-telling-you-what-i-think-i-want https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/9871858-before-i-begin-tell...

solidsnack9000 3y ago

Dalio offered to set up a similar system for the Russians. Gref expressed intrigue and suggested that he might be able to introduce Dalio to Putin at the Russian leader’s palace in the resort town of Sochi. Expressed "intrigue"?

esafak 3y ago
Interest.

tempsy 3y ago

I don't really understand their portfolio at all. 700+ positions (comically overdiversified), top 2 holdings is the S&P and an emerging markets ETF that make up 11% of the portfolio. Why does anyone pay a premium for this over holding the S&P or a total world ETF. https://hedgefollow.com/funds/Bridgewater+Associates https://hedgefollow.com/funds/Bridgewater+Associates

smallnamespace 3y ago
If you think they are good at picking winners at scale then many small bets makes sense, like a VC fund. Of course it's harder to tell if they're doing any work since they're not private investments, but many VC funds also ride coattails without adding much alpha.
- toomuchtodo 3y ago
  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oFPMvlLlkyY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oFPMvlLlkyY Less than five minutes, but gets the point across. Skip to 2:50 for visual.
- tempsy 3y ago
  This is not anything like a VC fund. 700+ positions in mostly large mature companies is so overly diversified that it would be near impossible to deviate too far from S&P or a world index.
yieldcrv 3y ago
in my experience investing in hedge funds, there is no accurate way to tell what an individual investor actually gets the reference performance from fund inception is a pretty poor proxy if you were not a limited partner from inception side pockets can be the greatest of all time

pavlov 3y ago

The survivorship bias effect is so strong, there doesn’t seem to be any point in admiring hedge fund managers. We have millions of people professionally throwing dice in the stock market. A few of them will be very successful and become billionaires. But there’s not much benefit to society, and nothing interesting to emulate. The best thing might be to ignore these people who seem to endlessly crave attention and respect for their purported achievements.

spaceman_2020 3y ago

I don’t see a problem with a private company being run according to the whims and fancies of its founder - as long as no workers were exploited or laws broken

adfgjiuobniou 3y ago
It's just stupid. The resources this guy controls could do some real good in the world. Instead they're being squandered.
- voldacar 3y ago
  What does he owe you?
- spaceman_2020 3y ago
  Same could be said for any number of billionaires
compiler-guy 3y ago
He can run it however he wants as long as it's legal, but that doesn't free him from analysis and criticism.
- spaceman_2020 3y ago
  That’s true too. That analysis is also important in case anyone wants to learn how to (or how NOT to) run a company
rurp 3y ago
I don't think I have seen any comments saying that he should be legally barred from running his own company this way. It's more about people commenting on what a weird toxic environment it sounds like there and speculating that Dalio probably isn't nearly as skilled an investor as he thinks he is.

spir 3y ago

I admire Ray Dalio's principles and his effort to promote public education around his principles and macroeconomics. If more rich successful people tried help educate the public the way Ray does, the world would be a better place.

throw0101c 3y ago
> I admire Ray Dalio's principles and his effort to promote public education around his principles and macroeconomics. Are his principles actually true? Accurate? I ask because Bridgewater does not use them in any of their trading strategies.
- spir 3y ago
  For one thing, he wrote a picture book of his principles, and I think it's terrific https://www.amazon.com/Principles-Success-Ray-Dalio/dp/1982147210 https://www.amazon.com/Principles-Success-Ray-Dalio/dp/19821...

xyzelement 3y ago

As a former BW employee, it's amusing to see an article every day because this guy wrote a book about the fund. It's definitely a Gell-Mann amnesia type thing[0]. Imagine you're someone who does cross-fit and you read an article about "a group of people being forced to get up at 5 in the morning to rapidly lift heavy things until they are exhausted" - you'd go "wow that sounds horrible" but then "wait, I chose to do this and I love what it does for me." Bridgewater is a super rigorous place to work where you know exactly where you stand due to direct feedback and practices that hold up failure as a fodder for learning (different than punishment.) That's not for everyone - even I had trouble "metabolizing" it at times but overall it's a great way to operate. BW is a great place to work for the right people. I loved my few years there and I say this even though I got fired eventually. It has made me much stronger and set me up for ongoing success elsewhere. [0]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Crichton#Gell-Mann_amnesia_effect https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Crichton#Gell-Mann_amn...

chikitabanana 3y ago
I don't think you should've been downvoted. The articles covering this topic all seem intent on painting Bridgewater as the Branch Davidians of Wall St. (a view I somewhat agree with), so it's nice to see another perspective. If you have some time, can you answer my questions: - How was your time there? - What was your role at the company? - What was the interview process like? - Can you describe what a normal day looked like for you? - How often did you interact with RD? - What was the book's biggest mischaracterization/exaggeration of RD/BW? - What was the book's most accurate assessment? - Why did you get fired? What was the firing process like (any NDAs/noncompetes)?
- xyzelement 3y ago
  Happy to answer your questions in general: // How was your time there? I found it challenging but worthwhile. Bridgewater drowns you in feedback even if you're an amazing performer, so you're constantly aware of your good and bad patterns. Obviously some of that stuff is hard to hear because your ego fights it being true, but I found a few areas where I really embraced the feedback and improved myself not just as an employee but as a person. EG, I am more decisive, more aware of my propensity to over-analyze and the real impact it can have on things, etc. Some of the stuff was deeper but too much context to explain. // - What was your role at the company? I was brought in as a senior tech IC with an eye to take the space on as a manager. // - What was the interview process like? I think it was fairly specific to me and my role to be honest. One big thing obviously is the firm is very focused on screening out people who are not interested in operating in this culture of growth and transparency. // - Can you describe what a normal day looked like for you? In terms of time allocation, not that different than my prior job at a fintech or subsequent FAANG. Every colleague was very smart and communication was very high-bandwidth. I really appreciated being able to say "you are confusing me" or "this doesn't make sense to do because X" -- and have people say this stuff to me -- without hesitation. It was very good to know where you stand and have no barrier to let others know what you are thinking. // - How often did you interact with RD? I was in a few large meetings where he was in and otherwise had a chat w him at a picnic table outside the office on a sunny day. I think he was sitting there smoking a pipe before I came to say hi. // What was the book's biggest mischaracterization/exaggeration of RD/BW? I didn't read the book and based on the articles I see coming from it, I have zero interest. But mainly, BW culture is legitimately not for everybody and not even for most people. The mistake people make it hearing about how it works and instead of deciding "wow, that's not for me" - they decide "wow, that's terrible." An analogy I have is something like - imagine someone told you about an olympian's training regiment, diet, etc. You'd probably go "wow what a horrible life" - but the olympian loves it because that type of rigor is necessary for the kind of performance they seek to attain. Obviously working at BW is not the olympics but as an analogy it works. // - What was the book's most accurate assessment? Similar to above, it sounds like the book describes certain processes and attributes of the culture and then tells you "and that's terrible" whereas the folks who work there love these aspects of the culture and connect it to their personal growth, company success, etc. // Why did you get fired? What was the firing process like (any NDAs/noncompetes)? When COVID hit, we downsized the tech department of my business. I was legitimately the weakest person of my role in my area so it was right for me to go. I don't say this as false modesty, I am good at what I do but the other people were even better. The firing was super respectful, I got to pick my exit date and had very generous severance. BW has a fairly standard non-compete that I signed when I joined (I had thought about it for a while and decided it was a worthwhile risk.) Mainly, if I wanted to go to another fund for a similar role, they were likely to block it. The further afield I went, the less of an issue there was. I had two jobs in the non-compete period (2 years) and BW signed off on both within the same day. Happy to share anything else

boeingUH60 3y ago

[flagged]

dilyevsky 3y ago

My favorite part is when dalio setup the “trustworthiness score” that worked a bit like PageRank but then some lowly employees ended up with higher “trustworthiness” than dalio himself. So he made them change the scoring such that it’s always capped at your manager. Principles my ass

bawana 3y ago

Very scary. He comes across as grandpa but in there is a lurking stalin struggling to get out. We all have bad and good in us. Even trump. Biden reminds me of Chamberlain and unfortunately the pain in America will elect more ‘dynamic’ and controlling politicians to stand up to the rising tide of the new fascism

MR4D 3y ago

Ray's style has merits but I think he takes it way too far. It might end up being his downfall. He has a pathological drive for getting to cause & effect decisions that humans aren't built for. At some point, he's going be start studying the East German security apparatus due to it's ability to know everything about it's people. Maybe he already has.