Ouch, this is painfully accurate. Although I think communities can go in a few different directions after stage 3. Another common outcome seems to be: arriving

Ouch, this is painfully accurate. Although I think communities can go in a few different directions after stage 3. Another common outcome seems to be: arriving at an imperfect but reasonable compromise between the needs of new users and core contributors, which keeps the community relatively stable but maybe not quite as fun as it used to be.