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> ...and expected Australian imports to come flooding back in but almost nobody bit that hook due to the amount of time and money export companies had spent arr

> ...and expected Australian imports to come flooding back in but almost nobody bit that hook due to the amount of time and money export companies had spent arranging relationships with other countries instead of China in the wake of the ban. Do you have a source for this? I feel it's very generalised and doesn't take into account the individual industries. Take Australian red wine for instance, domestic producers haven't found a new export market to take the volume China did. It's negatively impacted the industry significantly and I'm quite certain once Australian wine producers can gain non-tariffed access to the Chinese market again the oceans of red will once again flow.

coffeecantcode 3y ago
This is what I based my original take off of, which then led to some independent research on the topic over the course of the week. Interestingly enough the article discusses the wine exports as you have mentioned as well. https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/china-says-australias-exporters-can-come-back-some-say-no-thanks-5bcf5d27?st=4k1y248zy6iw4rh&reflink=article_copyURL_share https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/china-says-australias-exporte...
- plugger 3y ago
  In that research did you watch this video? https://www.abc.net.au/news/programs/the-business/2023-11-06/where-to-next-for-the-australia-china-trade/103071680 https://www.abc.net.au/news/programs/the-business/2023-11-06... I kinda think if you want honest appraisals of the Australia/China relationship you'd probably want to look at domestic Australia sources when compared to the wsj.
  - coffeecantcode 3y ago
    In all transparency no, it wouldn’t load then and it still won’t now for some reason. Despite that it seems that the previous Australian ambassador believes that the relationship will remain strong between the two countries, I don’t doubt that. But you can’t deny that there is probably some lasting damage if not with financials then at the very least with reputation for these private companies that now find themselves in some awkward positions with suppliers and import/export regulations. Feel free to summarize the video if you’d like I don’t have a pessimistic outlook on the whole thing, I just think that China has their fingers in too many pies right now if you catch my drift.
    - deleted 3y ago
      [deleted]
    - plugger 3y ago
      Basically Australia has balanced national security via FVEY/US backing with a huge economic upswing delivered off the back of China's rise globally for a couple decades now. Australia is effectively a parasitic passenger on the back of China from an economic growth perspective. When ScoMo called for the Covid investigation back in 2020, China responded with a raft of tariffs which seemed designed to incur maximum political pain for domestic Australian politicians. And while some industries found new markets for their products, others were left holding the bag domestically. Wine and rock lobsters are good examples of this.* AFR report on rock lobster woes from last year https://www.afr.com/companies/agriculture/lobster-will-be-cheap-this-christmas-but-maybe-not-for-much-longer-20221115-p5bykp https://www.afr.com/companies/agriculture/lobster-will-be-ch... The Guardian article on the Australian wine glut from Sept this year https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/sep/18/australian-wine-industry-sales-china-india https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/sep/18/austr... And while I do acknowledge that the relationships have been damaged, I also recognise these specific industries have been taking an absolute bath financially from this now gone export market. Australian businesses have bore the financial brunt of these decisions, not the Chinese. Australians have experience logistically with the Chinese market, contacts on the ground, and the desire to move product that historically has sold very well into that market. And when faced with continued financial pain due to a lack new markets being developed (come to find out that's quite hard for some things like wine and lobster) I suspect these industries will welcome the return of exports to China with open arms, primarily as they're probably on life support as I type this and desperately need those free cash flows for solvency. * I live in Perth, Western Australia, safe to say "we've" been talking about this issue pretty much since the tariffs were announced
      - defrost 3y ago
        Adding to the above comment which I'm happy to endorse there are two streams of Australian exports to China: * bulk raw materials: iron ore, thermal coal, other minerals, etc * (rock lobster, wines)^N - AKA aspirational middle class foreign luxuries The raw materials are lifeblood to China and not easily replaced, they are inputs to Chinese industry and generate wealth for China after processing, sale and export in addition to providing infrastructure for growth. The fancy goods for the chinese middle class is not a small market either; demographically China now has a middle class with disposable income that is larger than the entire population (all classes) of the USofA. This is not the Red China the McCarthy era foaming anti communists warned us about, this is a country within another country that wants fine fibre merino wool suits, ethical cotton, nearly organic wheat, hand massaged beef, etc. As much as the Xi faction enjoyed dropping the hammer on fine goods from Australia as payback for ScoMo rushing in with ill considerd comments from his National Party cheer squad they also faced some push back at home from disgruntled chinese consumers. The demand is still there for the fine goods, once the political gates drop a little the spice will flow again.

coffeecantcode 3y ago

This is what I based my original take off of, which then led to some independent research on the topic over the course of the week. Interestingly enough the article discusses the wine exports as you have mentioned as well. https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/china-says-australias-exporters-can-come-back-some-say-no-thanks-5bcf5d27?st=4k1y248zy6iw4rh&reflink=article_copyURL_share https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/china-says-australias-exporte...

plugger 3y ago
In that research did you watch this video? https://www.abc.net.au/news/programs/the-business/2023-11-06/where-to-next-for-the-australia-china-trade/103071680 https://www.abc.net.au/news/programs/the-business/2023-11-06... I kinda think if you want honest appraisals of the Australia/China relationship you'd probably want to look at domestic Australia sources when compared to the wsj.
- coffeecantcode 3y ago
  In all transparency no, it wouldn’t load then and it still won’t now for some reason. Despite that it seems that the previous Australian ambassador believes that the relationship will remain strong between the two countries, I don’t doubt that. But you can’t deny that there is probably some lasting damage if not with financials then at the very least with reputation for these private companies that now find themselves in some awkward positions with suppliers and import/export regulations. Feel free to summarize the video if you’d like I don’t have a pessimistic outlook on the whole thing, I just think that China has their fingers in too many pies right now if you catch my drift.
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]
  - plugger 3y ago
    Basically Australia has balanced national security via FVEY/US backing with a huge economic upswing delivered off the back of China's rise globally for a couple decades now. Australia is effectively a parasitic passenger on the back of China from an economic growth perspective. When ScoMo called for the Covid investigation back in 2020, China responded with a raft of tariffs which seemed designed to incur maximum political pain for domestic Australian politicians. And while some industries found new markets for their products, others were left holding the bag domestically. Wine and rock lobsters are good examples of this.* AFR report on rock lobster woes from last year https://www.afr.com/companies/agriculture/lobster-will-be-cheap-this-christmas-but-maybe-not-for-much-longer-20221115-p5bykp https://www.afr.com/companies/agriculture/lobster-will-be-ch... The Guardian article on the Australian wine glut from Sept this year https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/sep/18/australian-wine-industry-sales-china-india https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/sep/18/austr... And while I do acknowledge that the relationships have been damaged, I also recognise these specific industries have been taking an absolute bath financially from this now gone export market. Australian businesses have bore the financial brunt of these decisions, not the Chinese. Australians have experience logistically with the Chinese market, contacts on the ground, and the desire to move product that historically has sold very well into that market. And when faced with continued financial pain due to a lack new markets being developed (come to find out that's quite hard for some things like wine and lobster) I suspect these industries will welcome the return of exports to China with open arms, primarily as they're probably on life support as I type this and desperately need those free cash flows for solvency. * I live in Perth, Western Australia, safe to say "we've" been talking about this issue pretty much since the tariffs were announced
    - defrost 3y ago
      Adding to the above comment which I'm happy to endorse there are two streams of Australian exports to China: * bulk raw materials: iron ore, thermal coal, other minerals, etc * (rock lobster, wines)^N - AKA aspirational middle class foreign luxuries The raw materials are lifeblood to China and not easily replaced, they are inputs to Chinese industry and generate wealth for China after processing, sale and export in addition to providing infrastructure for growth. The fancy goods for the chinese middle class is not a small market either; demographically China now has a middle class with disposable income that is larger than the entire population (all classes) of the USofA. This is not the Red China the McCarthy era foaming anti communists warned us about, this is a country within another country that wants fine fibre merino wool suits, ethical cotton, nearly organic wheat, hand massaged beef, etc. As much as the Xi faction enjoyed dropping the hammer on fine goods from Australia as payback for ScoMo rushing in with ill considerd comments from his National Party cheer squad they also faced some push back at home from disgruntled chinese consumers. The demand is still there for the fine goods, once the political gates drop a little the spice will flow again.