You can build trees of likely scenarios, branching from the now and calculate what capability traversal does to the likelihood of all scenarios if you have a fu

You can build trees of likely scenarios, branching from the now and calculate what capability traversal does to the likelihood of all scenarios if you have a full human behavior model and thus a society model. And it gives you quite surprising answers: Root hardening is op. If a capability increases the risk of societal decline (nukes e.g.) you can increase societies abilities to recover from that by creating a video archive of your civilization techniques aka YouTube. And by increasing the ability to approach scenarios again and again, the likelihood of stable traversal to a scenario with more capabilities increases enormously. The root aka now is hardened against a negative outcome that is likely. Longtermism with good models and no biases is a plus.