4 ms·

But you just a described a scenario where demand increases in these locations. It enhances, not limits, the ability to raise rent prices.

bryanlarsen 3y ago
People moving from an expensive city to a poor city do not increase overall demand -- letting go of an apartment in a rich city to rent one in an inexpensive city does not effect overall demand. But what does have an impact on prices is the elasticity of demand. If you're willing and able to move to get a cheaper apartment you increase elasticity of demand, lowering prices. OTOH, if you're stuck in your apartment because it's the only one close to your job...
- listenallyall 3y ago
  Rents are regional, "overall" (by which I assume you mean either national or global) demand is irrelevant. If the government provides a program that incents people to move to low-COL areas (low, because there are no employment opportunities), rents in those areas will increase.
  - bryanlarsen 3y ago
    And, more significantly, rents in the high-COL areas will decrease. net win.
    - listenallyall 3y ago
      That's simply incorrect. Imagine 5000 people decide to leave Manhattan (1.6 million) to move to beautiful Saratoga Springs (28,000). It will have no noticeable effect on Manhattan rents, but will vastly increase Saratoga rents. It's amplified because people who were forced to share a housing unit in Manhattan due to economics can live alone thanks to lower COL in Saratoga combined with the government subsidy. So total housing demand increases. This phenomenon is clearly demonstrated every summer when people flood Saratoga during racing season, and every hotel room and Airbnb doubles, maybe triples, in price. Your entire hypothesis relies on you being blind (by choice, it appears) to some easily-observable realities of the world.
      - bryanlarsen 3y ago
        Unrealistic scenario is unrealistic. 5000 people didn't move from Saratoga Springs to NYC. And 5000 people on UBI aren't going to from NYC to Saratoga Springs, it already has expensive rent. No, if you're on a marginal UBI you aren't going to move to attractive places, you're going to move too someplace where you can stretch your money -- aka someplace cheap and someplace where you have support, AKA family. People moved from tens of thousands of different American towns to NYC, and lots of people in NYC would love to move back to those tens of thousands of different towns. And if you move back to where you came from, it means that you're not going to stretch the capacity of where you're moving to. 5 people moving from NYC to 10,000 different towns is far more realistic than your scenario. And 50,000 moving from NYC is likely going to affect rents there more than 5 people moving elsewhere.
        listenallyall 3y ago
        > 50,000 moving from NYC is likely going to affect rents there You're just making things up. Despite losing 10-20,000 people every 3 months, NYC rent increased steadily. Rents did drop initially at the start of the pandemic when outflows were 40-50,000+ per quarter, but even as the outflows remain greater than 30,000 per quarter, rents have fully recovered and continued increasing to record levels. And you believe that handing out money freely is going to lower the rent? Come on man. net outflow chart: https://www.crainsnewyork.com/economy/are-people-leaving-new-york-migration-trends-show-recovery https://www.crainsnewyork.com/economy/are-people-leaving-new... rent price chart: https://nypost.com/2023/04/13/manhattan-median-rents-reach-an-all-time-high-of-4175-month/ https://nypost.com/2023/04/13/manhattan-median-rents-reach-a...

bryanlarsen 3y ago

People moving from an expensive city to a poor city do not increase overall demand -- letting go of an apartment in a rich city to rent one in an inexpensive city does not effect overall demand. But what does have an impact on prices is the elasticity of demand. If you're willing and able to move to get a cheaper apartment you increase elasticity of demand, lowering prices. OTOH, if you're stuck in your apartment because it's the only one close to your job...

listenallyall 3y ago
Rents are regional, "overall" (by which I assume you mean either national or global) demand is irrelevant. If the government provides a program that incents people to move to low-COL areas (low, because there are no employment opportunities), rents in those areas will increase.
- bryanlarsen 3y ago
  And, more significantly, rents in the high-COL areas will decrease. net win.
  - listenallyall 3y ago
    That's simply incorrect. Imagine 5000 people decide to leave Manhattan (1.6 million) to move to beautiful Saratoga Springs (28,000). It will have no noticeable effect on Manhattan rents, but will vastly increase Saratoga rents. It's amplified because people who were forced to share a housing unit in Manhattan due to economics can live alone thanks to lower COL in Saratoga combined with the government subsidy. So total housing demand increases. This phenomenon is clearly demonstrated every summer when people flood Saratoga during racing season, and every hotel room and Airbnb doubles, maybe triples, in price. Your entire hypothesis relies on you being blind (by choice, it appears) to some easily-observable realities of the world.
    - bryanlarsen 3y ago
      Unrealistic scenario is unrealistic. 5000 people didn't move from Saratoga Springs to NYC. And 5000 people on UBI aren't going to from NYC to Saratoga Springs, it already has expensive rent. No, if you're on a marginal UBI you aren't going to move to attractive places, you're going to move too someplace where you can stretch your money -- aka someplace cheap and someplace where you have support, AKA family. People moved from tens of thousands of different American towns to NYC, and lots of people in NYC would love to move back to those tens of thousands of different towns. And if you move back to where you came from, it means that you're not going to stretch the capacity of where you're moving to. 5 people moving from NYC to 10,000 different towns is far more realistic than your scenario. And 50,000 moving from NYC is likely going to affect rents there more than 5 people moving elsewhere.
      - listenallyall 3y ago
        > 50,000 moving from NYC is likely going to affect rents there You're just making things up. Despite losing 10-20,000 people every 3 months, NYC rent increased steadily. Rents did drop initially at the start of the pandemic when outflows were 40-50,000+ per quarter, but even as the outflows remain greater than 30,000 per quarter, rents have fully recovered and continued increasing to record levels. And you believe that handing out money freely is going to lower the rent? Come on man. net outflow chart: https://www.crainsnewyork.com/economy/are-people-leaving-new-york-migration-trends-show-recovery https://www.crainsnewyork.com/economy/are-people-leaving-new... rent price chart: https://nypost.com/2023/04/13/manhattan-median-rents-reach-an-all-time-high-of-4175-month/ https://nypost.com/2023/04/13/manhattan-median-rents-reach-a...