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My grid is not quite 50% natural gas powered now with oil-burning plants making around 30% during peak demand days in the winter. Changing from local, first-pa

My grid is not quite 50% natural gas powered now with oil-burning plants making around 30% during peak demand days in the winter. Changing from local, first-party burning of natural gas to remote, third-party burning of natural gas doesn't isolate me from increasing gas prices.

mschuster91 3y ago
> Changing from local, first-party burning of natural gas to remote, third-party burning of natural gas doesn't isolate me from increasing gas prices. It doesn't, but the percentage of fossil fuels used to generate the electricity powering your heater is only going down as solar, wind and other forms of renewable electricity generation enter the field, so the effects of price hikes there will get lower and lower over a very short timeframe. Even nuclear can't compete against that any more on price, which is why just last week a project got shuttered in the US.
- sokoloff 3y ago
  For obvious reasons, there is perfect anti-correlation between the months with the highest solar generation potential and the months with the highest heating demands on my house.
  - mschuster91 3y ago
    So what, that's what wind, water and geothermal are for. And even then, solar isn't completely out of the picture - as long as it's not pitch black from a storm, panels will still run 10-30% of their rated capacity.
ThatPlayer 3y ago
Part of the price of gas to your home is also the infrastructure. At least around here, that cost is based around how much gas you use. So when gas usage goes down, but the cost to maintain infrastructure stays the same, they raise those prices too. And as gas prices go up, I do expect more people to look at ways to reduce usage, whether that be electrification, or even just more efficient gas appliances. That'll be a feedback loop to lower usage, raise prices, which gets consumers to lower usage.
- sokoloff 3y ago
  We have similar setup here as well (and I think that makes sense). I pay about $10/mo for the meter and then the gas is split into supply (the gas) and distribution (the transport). On a random month last winter (Jan 2023), distribution was 55% of the variable part of the bill and supply 45%. Last month, supply was $0.63 of a $32.54 variable part of the bill, owing to very little usage and a supply cost of only $0.0233/therm.

mschuster91 3y ago

> Changing from local, first-party burning of natural gas to remote, third-party burning of natural gas doesn't isolate me from increasing gas prices. It doesn't, but the percentage of fossil fuels used to generate the electricity powering your heater is only going down as solar, wind and other forms of renewable electricity generation enter the field, so the effects of price hikes there will get lower and lower over a very short timeframe. Even nuclear can't compete against that any more on price, which is why just last week a project got shuttered in the US.

sokoloff 3y ago
For obvious reasons, there is perfect anti-correlation between the months with the highest solar generation potential and the months with the highest heating demands on my house.
- mschuster91 3y ago
  So what, that's what wind, water and geothermal are for. And even then, solar isn't completely out of the picture - as long as it's not pitch black from a storm, panels will still run 10-30% of their rated capacity.

ThatPlayer 3y ago

Part of the price of gas to your home is also the infrastructure. At least around here, that cost is based around how much gas you use. So when gas usage goes down, but the cost to maintain infrastructure stays the same, they raise those prices too. And as gas prices go up, I do expect more people to look at ways to reduce usage, whether that be electrification, or even just more efficient gas appliances. That'll be a feedback loop to lower usage, raise prices, which gets consumers to lower usage.

sokoloff 3y ago
We have similar setup here as well (and I think that makes sense). I pay about $10/mo for the meter and then the gas is split into supply (the gas) and distribution (the transport). On a random month last winter (Jan 2023), distribution was 55% of the variable part of the bill and supply 45%. Last month, supply was $0.63 of a $32.54 variable part of the bill, owing to very little usage and a supply cost of only $0.0233/therm.