‘’’ Overall, it’s clear that: Average wage growth since the pandemic has outpaced inflation, though cumulatively real wages are likely a bit below where one wo

‘’’ Overall, it’s clear that: Average wage growth since the pandemic has outpaced inflation, though cumulatively real wages are likely a bit below where one would expect in the absence of COVID-19 The real wage distribution has compressed—that is, lower-wage workers have seen proportionally larger gains than higher-wage workers, although this effect is lessened by the fact that low-income households have faced greater inflation than high-income households. Real wage growth is likely to hold up if the labor market remains strong and the US is able to stick the “soft landing” where inflation normalizes without a recession. Yet it remains at significant risk of cooling or stagnating if the slowing labor market we’ve seen over the last two years worsens substantially. ‘’’