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These articles are so tiresome. If a shortage actually materializes, the market will incentivize people to enter this profession. And if it doesn’t, it won’t. F

These articles are so tiresome. If a shortage actually materializes, the market will incentivize people to enter this profession. And if it doesn’t, it won’t. For a few years there will be a premium those workers earn as new entrants get trained. The government trying to predict demand, and students deciding to enter professions based on said predictions, is risky and is why central planning is inefficient - we simply don’t know. It’s better to wait for the market to demand something, show increased prices, and then let the market solve it. Similarly, perennial shortages now of employees in XYZ profession are always because pay is too low to match the undesirability of the job, or the government is preventing new entrants (i.e. we need more doctors but licensing and the monopoly on training doctors).

bertil 3y ago
I don’t mind the catastrophism: it tells parents to tell their 16-year-old that this could be an option. If enough kids trade peace around the dinner table with some financial support, we’ll get electricians before there’s a dire shortage. The shorter the training time, the faster we can react: two-year vocational training, mainly on the job, isn’t too bad. Still, it typically requires some light panic first and then a few articles about increasing demand and salaries for the offer to catch up.
erikw 3y ago
To continue on your point, the apprenticeship model of construction means that anyone can decide to get on the path to becoming an electrician today- starting on the lowest rung, but getting paid pretty well from day 0. In contrast to becoming a doctor… insane opportunity cost.
JumpCrisscross 3y ago
> If a shortage actually materializes, the market will incentivize people to enter this profession My friend makes backflow valves in Arizona. They pay $110k+ for backflowvalve technicians, a certification that takes two weeks and $1,000 to get. They will pay for the certification. Technicians set their own schedules and typically work 25 hours a week. He struggles to find candidates who can pass a drug test, and is making do by paying those close to retiring bonuses to keep working. Meanwhile, down the road, ASU prints communications majors who earn half that [1] at a cost of at least 16x more [2] and 100x longer. I doubt any of them could tell you what a backflow-valve technician does. (Were it not for my friend, I couldn’t either.) There is a signalling problem between the trades and high-school graduates. [1] https://www.collegesimply.com/colleges/arizona/arizona-state-university/outcomes/ https://www.collegesimply.com/colleges/arizona/arizona-state... [2] https://admission.asu.edu/cost-aid/resident-first-year https://admission.asu.edu/cost-aid/resident-first-year assuming in-state tuition, financial aid, zero living expenses and ignoring opportunity cost
- richardw 3y ago
  And ChatGPT can’t do the trade… until Tesla figures out the robots.
- takoid 3y ago
  Firstly, regarding drug testing: It's worth considering a more modern approach to this issue. In a world where many regions are relaxing their laws and attitudes towards substances like marijuana, sticking to strict drug testing policies might be excluding a significant portion of the workforce that is otherwise skilled and capable. If the concern is about workplace safety and performance, it might be more effective to focus on testing only when there's reasonable suspicion of impairment at work. This approach respects the privacy of employees and what they do in their free time, as long as it doesn't impact their work performance. Secondly, about the salary structure: It seems counterintuitive to pay higher bonuses to those nearing retirement instead of offering more attractive starting salaries to new hires. In a market where there's a clear demand and shortage of skilled labor, offering competitive or even premium starting salaries could be a more effective strategy. This not only attracts more candidates but also sends a message that the company values and invests in its new employees. It could be more beneficial in the long term to invest in attracting fresh talent and training them, rather than relying on an aging workforce.
  - JumpCrisscross 3y ago
    > stop drug testing potential hires (as long as they come to work sober, why does he care what his employees do in their free time?) State law. And it’s apparently a decent predictor for whether they’ll show up to appointments. > pay more That’s the retention bonus. If someone asked for more, he’d pay it. (His clients are willing to pay thousands of dollars in expedition fees per visit. Did I mention technicians get a double-digit fraction of their production as commission?) The problem isn’t pay. It’s availability of willing candidates. (I suggested he look into sponsoring a visa. I think he's going to sell off the maintenance part of the business to focus on manufacturing the valves, which can be automated more readily.)
- monero-xmr 3y ago
  A part time job that pays $90 an hour with no set schedule and 2 weeks of training, and the only qualification is to have blood free of narcotics? Either something isn’t adding up or this is the single worst recruiter in America

bertil 3y ago

I don’t mind the catastrophism: it tells parents to tell their 16-year-old that this could be an option. If enough kids trade peace around the dinner table with some financial support, we’ll get electricians before there’s a dire shortage. The shorter the training time, the faster we can react: two-year vocational training, mainly on the job, isn’t too bad. Still, it typically requires some light panic first and then a few articles about increasing demand and salaries for the offer to catch up.

erikw 3y ago

To continue on your point, the apprenticeship model of construction means that anyone can decide to get on the path to becoming an electrician today- starting on the lowest rung, but getting paid pretty well from day 0. In contrast to becoming a doctor… insane opportunity cost.

JumpCrisscross 3y ago

> If a shortage actually materializes, the market will incentivize people to enter this profession My friend makes backflow valves in Arizona. They pay $110k+ for backflowvalve technicians, a certification that takes two weeks and $1,000 to get. They will pay for the certification. Technicians set their own schedules and typically work 25 hours a week. He struggles to find candidates who can pass a drug test, and is making do by paying those close to retiring bonuses to keep working. Meanwhile, down the road, ASU prints communications majors who earn half that [1] at a cost of at least 16x more [2] and 100x longer. I doubt any of them could tell you what a backflow-valve technician does. (Were it not for my friend, I couldn’t either.) There is a signalling problem between the trades and high-school graduates. [1] https://www.collegesimply.com/colleges/arizona/arizona-state-university/outcomes/ https://www.collegesimply.com/colleges/arizona/arizona-state... [2] https://admission.asu.edu/cost-aid/resident-first-year https://admission.asu.edu/cost-aid/resident-first-year assuming in-state tuition, financial aid, zero living expenses and ignoring opportunity cost

richardw 3y ago
And ChatGPT can’t do the trade… until Tesla figures out the robots.
takoid 3y ago
Firstly, regarding drug testing: It's worth considering a more modern approach to this issue. In a world where many regions are relaxing their laws and attitudes towards substances like marijuana, sticking to strict drug testing policies might be excluding a significant portion of the workforce that is otherwise skilled and capable. If the concern is about workplace safety and performance, it might be more effective to focus on testing only when there's reasonable suspicion of impairment at work. This approach respects the privacy of employees and what they do in their free time, as long as it doesn't impact their work performance. Secondly, about the salary structure: It seems counterintuitive to pay higher bonuses to those nearing retirement instead of offering more attractive starting salaries to new hires. In a market where there's a clear demand and shortage of skilled labor, offering competitive or even premium starting salaries could be a more effective strategy. This not only attracts more candidates but also sends a message that the company values and invests in its new employees. It could be more beneficial in the long term to invest in attracting fresh talent and training them, rather than relying on an aging workforce.
- JumpCrisscross 3y ago
  > stop drug testing potential hires (as long as they come to work sober, why does he care what his employees do in their free time?) State law. And it’s apparently a decent predictor for whether they’ll show up to appointments. > pay more That’s the retention bonus. If someone asked for more, he’d pay it. (His clients are willing to pay thousands of dollars in expedition fees per visit. Did I mention technicians get a double-digit fraction of their production as commission?) The problem isn’t pay. It’s availability of willing candidates. (I suggested he look into sponsoring a visa. I think he's going to sell off the maintenance part of the business to focus on manufacturing the valves, which can be automated more readily.)
monero-xmr 3y ago
A part time job that pays $90 an hour with no set schedule and 2 weeks of training, and the only qualification is to have blood free of narcotics? Either something isn’t adding up or this is the single worst recruiter in America