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> A shortage of skilled labor could derail efforts to "electrify everything." The same could be said from car mechanics when the first Ford Model T's started r

> A shortage of skilled labor could derail efforts to "electrify everything." The same could be said from car mechanics when the first Ford Model T's started rolling off the lines. If the electrification saves money, then people will happily pay up for a technician, and I don't see why nobody would want to become an electrician. Capitalism has a way of solving these things.

haliskerbas 3y ago
> If the electrification saves money this being the key point! time + money are important factors
georgeburdell 3y ago
> and I don't see why nobody would want to become an electrician I have a 70-year old relative who was a lifelong electrician, and he basically can't move now without significant pain due to the lack of cartilage. Electrician work, especially in the home, involves a lot of awkward angles.
- toomuchtodo 3y ago
  Physical labor has a shelf life as the body ages. Need a way to give folks a path to skill and earn and eventually transition to less physical work as they age, using what they've learned to contribute in more knowledge based roles (staff electrician, etc).
- huijzer 3y ago
  As anecdotal counter-evidence, I have a dozen relatives who are lifelong farmers and they are doing pretty good for their ages even though farming is statistically a very dangerous job. Also, office workers often get carpal tunnel syndrome, low back pain, finger injuries. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the incidence rates of nonfatal occupational injuries and illnesses for "Electrical contractors and other wiring installation contractors" don't seem too bad [1]. "Motor vehicle manufacturing", "Office furniture (including fixtures) manufacturing", and "Wholesale trade" seem to do much worse. [1]: https://www.bls.gov/web/osh/table-1-industry-rates-national.htm https://www.bls.gov/web/osh/table-1-industry-rates-national....
  - mschuster91 3y ago
    > "Motor vehicle manufacturing", "Office furniture (including fixtures) manufacturing", and "Wholesale trade" seem to do much worse. The reasons for why these jobs in particular have higher injury rates are easy to take a guess... manufacturing of vehicles and furniture involves a lot of heavy machinery and robotics as well as very repetitive work, and I'd take a guess that "wholesale trade" involves running forklifts, a field that's very notorious for employers skimping on workplace safety and for employees to break even common sense rules out of complacency or perverse incentives. In contrast, farmers do a very VERY diverse work, so the usual problems associated with repetitive work don't appear.
Almondsetat 3y ago
There is just one slight difference: electrification has become an imposed urgency. Sure, cars were cool, but nobody really felt like a Damocles sword was dangling above their head just because they were sticking with horses for a few more years. The car revolution was a lot more organic than what is now electrification
- verisimi 3y ago
  > imposed This is a world of difference. If you want to spend your money to gain extra travel (by buying a model T), great! If you are forced to pay for this, because the other options are made artificially more expensive, because of taxation etc, this is only a deterioration of life. You get less (or the same) but pay more.
  - thfuran 3y ago
    Oil usage has always been artificially cheap due to failure to price in the externalities.
- jstarfish 3y ago
  It's not going to end well either. See also the urgent push to switch everyone to electric from natural gas. Up until now, energy sources were diverse (oil, gas, renewable). Literally everything is going to depend on a centralized grid for energy delivery. Can't drive, cook, work, or do much else anymore without electricity from The Grid. Your solar panels feed the grid before they feed you. We haven't seen warfare on our home turf since the 1800s and never really had to consider what happens when infrastructure gets attacked. We're only now starting to learn what happens when supply chains are compromised.
  - Almondsetat 3y ago
    The energy sources might be diverse, but to think that the gas coming to your house or the petrol reaching the local station is anything but centralized and globalized is extremely naive
  - 3y ago
sokoloff 3y ago
> If the electrification saves money, then people will happily pay up for a technician That’s the problem: it often doesn’t. I’d have an air-to-water heat pump heating my house today if the quotes I got were remotely cost-competitive with a replacement gas boiler. A payback of “never” or “not within the projected lifespan of the equipment”, coupled with far fewer people who can service the equipment and far less likelihood that any part you need will be right on the truck, means that a lot of houses, including my own, have a gas boiler installed and maybe will electrify in 20 years if it’s competitive then. I’d have even paid a small premium ($3-6 thousand? Sure! But not well into five figures) to go air-to-water, but not 2-2.5x as much to buy into a possibly hard-to-service (due to lack of experienced techs with non-standard equipment, not because the equipment itself is a problem). The UK is so far ahead of the US in air-to-water that it’s crazy to think we share a planet.
- notjtrig 3y ago
  Because of this, a mini split is becoming a very common DIY project, the tool kit goes for $250 on Amazon, from what I understand you'll get a better install doing it yourself because you can purge the lines for the recommend 24 hours.
  - sokoloff 3y ago
    Purging the lines is done to eliminate moisture and other non-compressibles. The 24-hour standing vac test is a way (but not the only way) to prove a lack of leaks. Particularly if you're going to flood with nitrogen (as the pros commonly do) and do a positive pressure decay test, there's absolutely no need to take overnight IMO. Taking overnight is a compensation mechanism that DIYers use to avoid buying the N2 bottle/regulator (which the pros already have because of their need to braze every so often). I think DIYers can get as good a result as the pros, but I don't think the 24 hour vac test makes for a better result than a methodical pro will get.
- mschuster91 3y ago
  > That’s the problem: it often doesn’t. I’d have an air-to-water heat pump heating my house today if the quotes I got were remotely cost-competitive with a replacement gas boiler. Factor in the expected cost rises of natural gas and suddenly the economics change. Russia's invasion of Ukraine permanently killed the 5ct/kWh we had in Germany, the upcoming CO2 surcharge in 2024 will increase the price even more, and on top of that a lot of natural gas (and helium!) production is an often enough even unwanted side effect of oil production... so as the oil consumption of the world goes down, the availability of gas will drop as well.
jillesvangurp 3y ago
The lack of trained electricians is a short term hurdle. But there will be a surplus of people with all sorts of skills related to gas and oil based heating systems that can retrain to become electricians. And a shortage usually means the money is good. So, that's an incentive.
jonhohle 3y ago
I don’t understand why people don’t understand this. We put solar panels on our roof not because we love the environment or civilization or are worried about saving the planet but because it ultimately would save us money on utilities. For everyone else on our local electric monopoly who didn’t lock in rates with a buyback agreement, they are now paying more for electricity, installation of solar panels costs about the same, but their break even period is nearly twice as long. We are a lot less retro-fit solar installations now. Would I like an electric car? Probably, but the economics don’t work for us. 15 years ago I estimated gas would need to be above $5/gallon for years to justify the cost of a hybrid, let alone a full EV. We got close to that in the last year, but now fuel is back around $3.50 and once again the economics don’t work. When compact fluorescent came out, I bought them to reduce lighting costs by 50%, and then did the same with LEDs. I’ve replaced 1000W servers in my house with systems that can run in dozens of watts. I can deal with a 3-10 year pay back on long term items (stove, heaters, etc.). Our electric company, however, cannot be trusted, so I do everything in my power to reduce what I use from them. Unfortunately (or fortunately), our NatGas provider has not screwed people over so thoroughly. I have no intention on replacing gas appliances only to be more beholden to the electric company.
- huijzer 3y ago
  Then don't do it and then there is no issue with a lack of workers either. My point was that the lack of workers is not the problem because the article seems to suggest that.
- CapstanRoller 3y ago
  >We put solar panels on our roof not because we love the environment or civilization or are worried about saving the planet but because it ultimately would save us money on utilities. Who is "we"? There are plenty of people who make conscious choices to make the world a better place, because it feels good to help others and see a happier healthier society. This includes possibly futile personal choices like driving and flying less, consuming less, etc. Not everyone sees the world purely through such an economic lens. Did the capitalist market incentivize the Civil Rights movement, for example?
notthemessiah 3y ago
In the traditional theory of capitalism everybody is a perfectly rational agent, markets have perfect information, the bargaining game is convex (no holes or loops), prices/wages are never sticky, and there is zero friction/hurdles between local extrema (in the optimization landscape). I think if we are looking to metaphors, it might be better to look at chemistry, where many reactions need catalysts to overcome the activation energy. As with many public goods/utilities, there may not be a viable profit incentive for providing or creating such a catalyst. I also see many other career paths have similar or worse problems (such as the pilot shortage).
sundvor 3y ago
It's one profession that's just about guaranteed to be safe from AI replacing them, ie an in demand hands on skillset that just cannot be automated. Just had a gas cooktop replaced with induction, the whole switchboard had to be replaced and it was a big job. Guy didn't have training on installing a Tesla charger, so I guess he was busy enough as it was. He said people just love induction. (Got my EV 1.5 years ago, I'm just using the mobile charger for now; works well enough at up to 9A/240v - but trying to line up an upgrade nonetheless, as I currently can't take advantage of peak PV on really sunny days. Garage shares a 15A with the drier etc.)
throwaway892238 3y ago
> Capitalism has a way of solving these things. Just depends on what kind of "solution" you allow for. Job shortages may be filled by illegal workers, unqualified workers, or workers cutting corners.

haliskerbas 3y ago

> If the electrification saves money this being the key point! time + money are important factors

georgeburdell 3y ago

> and I don't see why nobody would want to become an electrician I have a 70-year old relative who was a lifelong electrician, and he basically can't move now without significant pain due to the lack of cartilage. Electrician work, especially in the home, involves a lot of awkward angles.

toomuchtodo 3y ago
Physical labor has a shelf life as the body ages. Need a way to give folks a path to skill and earn and eventually transition to less physical work as they age, using what they've learned to contribute in more knowledge based roles (staff electrician, etc).
huijzer 3y ago
As anecdotal counter-evidence, I have a dozen relatives who are lifelong farmers and they are doing pretty good for their ages even though farming is statistically a very dangerous job. Also, office workers often get carpal tunnel syndrome, low back pain, finger injuries. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the incidence rates of nonfatal occupational injuries and illnesses for "Electrical contractors and other wiring installation contractors" don't seem too bad [1]. "Motor vehicle manufacturing", "Office furniture (including fixtures) manufacturing", and "Wholesale trade" seem to do much worse. [1]: https://www.bls.gov/web/osh/table-1-industry-rates-national.htm https://www.bls.gov/web/osh/table-1-industry-rates-national....
- mschuster91 3y ago
  > "Motor vehicle manufacturing", "Office furniture (including fixtures) manufacturing", and "Wholesale trade" seem to do much worse. The reasons for why these jobs in particular have higher injury rates are easy to take a guess... manufacturing of vehicles and furniture involves a lot of heavy machinery and robotics as well as very repetitive work, and I'd take a guess that "wholesale trade" involves running forklifts, a field that's very notorious for employers skimping on workplace safety and for employees to break even common sense rules out of complacency or perverse incentives. In contrast, farmers do a very VERY diverse work, so the usual problems associated with repetitive work don't appear.

Almondsetat 3y ago

There is just one slight difference: electrification has become an imposed urgency. Sure, cars were cool, but nobody really felt like a Damocles sword was dangling above their head just because they were sticking with horses for a few more years. The car revolution was a lot more organic than what is now electrification

verisimi 3y ago
> imposed This is a world of difference. If you want to spend your money to gain extra travel (by buying a model T), great! If you are forced to pay for this, because the other options are made artificially more expensive, because of taxation etc, this is only a deterioration of life. You get less (or the same) but pay more.
- thfuran 3y ago
  Oil usage has always been artificially cheap due to failure to price in the externalities.
jstarfish 3y ago
It's not going to end well either. See also the urgent push to switch everyone to electric from natural gas. Up until now, energy sources were diverse (oil, gas, renewable). Literally everything is going to depend on a centralized grid for energy delivery. Can't drive, cook, work, or do much else anymore without electricity from The Grid. Your solar panels feed the grid before they feed you. We haven't seen warfare on our home turf since the 1800s and never really had to consider what happens when infrastructure gets attacked. We're only now starting to learn what happens when supply chains are compromised.
- Almondsetat 3y ago
  The energy sources might be diverse, but to think that the gas coming to your house or the petrol reaching the local station is anything but centralized and globalized is extremely naive
- 3y ago

sokoloff 3y ago

> If the electrification saves money, then people will happily pay up for a technician That’s the problem: it often doesn’t. I’d have an air-to-water heat pump heating my house today if the quotes I got were remotely cost-competitive with a replacement gas boiler. A payback of “never” or “not within the projected lifespan of the equipment”, coupled with far fewer people who can service the equipment and far less likelihood that any part you need will be right on the truck, means that a lot of houses, including my own, have a gas boiler installed and maybe will electrify in 20 years if it’s competitive then. I’d have even paid a small premium ($3-6 thousand? Sure! But not well into five figures) to go air-to-water, but not 2-2.5x as much to buy into a possibly hard-to-service (due to lack of experienced techs with non-standard equipment, not because the equipment itself is a problem). The UK is so far ahead of the US in air-to-water that it’s crazy to think we share a planet.

notjtrig 3y ago
Because of this, a mini split is becoming a very common DIY project, the tool kit goes for $250 on Amazon, from what I understand you'll get a better install doing it yourself because you can purge the lines for the recommend 24 hours.
- sokoloff 3y ago
  Purging the lines is done to eliminate moisture and other non-compressibles. The 24-hour standing vac test is a way (but not the only way) to prove a lack of leaks. Particularly if you're going to flood with nitrogen (as the pros commonly do) and do a positive pressure decay test, there's absolutely no need to take overnight IMO. Taking overnight is a compensation mechanism that DIYers use to avoid buying the N2 bottle/regulator (which the pros already have because of their need to braze every so often). I think DIYers can get as good a result as the pros, but I don't think the 24 hour vac test makes for a better result than a methodical pro will get.
mschuster91 3y ago
> That’s the problem: it often doesn’t. I’d have an air-to-water heat pump heating my house today if the quotes I got were remotely cost-competitive with a replacement gas boiler. Factor in the expected cost rises of natural gas and suddenly the economics change. Russia's invasion of Ukraine permanently killed the 5ct/kWh we had in Germany, the upcoming CO2 surcharge in 2024 will increase the price even more, and on top of that a lot of natural gas (and helium!) production is an often enough even unwanted side effect of oil production... so as the oil consumption of the world goes down, the availability of gas will drop as well.

jillesvangurp 3y ago

The lack of trained electricians is a short term hurdle. But there will be a surplus of people with all sorts of skills related to gas and oil based heating systems that can retrain to become electricians. And a shortage usually means the money is good. So, that's an incentive.

jonhohle 3y ago

I don’t understand why people don’t understand this. We put solar panels on our roof not because we love the environment or civilization or are worried about saving the planet but because it ultimately would save us money on utilities. For everyone else on our local electric monopoly who didn’t lock in rates with a buyback agreement, they are now paying more for electricity, installation of solar panels costs about the same, but their break even period is nearly twice as long. We are a lot less retro-fit solar installations now. Would I like an electric car? Probably, but the economics don’t work for us. 15 years ago I estimated gas would need to be above $5/gallon for years to justify the cost of a hybrid, let alone a full EV. We got close to that in the last year, but now fuel is back around $3.50 and once again the economics don’t work. When compact fluorescent came out, I bought them to reduce lighting costs by 50%, and then did the same with LEDs. I’ve replaced 1000W servers in my house with systems that can run in dozens of watts. I can deal with a 3-10 year pay back on long term items (stove, heaters, etc.). Our electric company, however, cannot be trusted, so I do everything in my power to reduce what I use from them. Unfortunately (or fortunately), our NatGas provider has not screwed people over so thoroughly. I have no intention on replacing gas appliances only to be more beholden to the electric company.

huijzer 3y ago
Then don't do it and then there is no issue with a lack of workers either. My point was that the lack of workers is not the problem because the article seems to suggest that.
CapstanRoller 3y ago
>We put solar panels on our roof not because we love the environment or civilization or are worried about saving the planet but because it ultimately would save us money on utilities. Who is "we"? There are plenty of people who make conscious choices to make the world a better place, because it feels good to help others and see a happier healthier society. This includes possibly futile personal choices like driving and flying less, consuming less, etc. Not everyone sees the world purely through such an economic lens. Did the capitalist market incentivize the Civil Rights movement, for example?

notthemessiah 3y ago

In the traditional theory of capitalism everybody is a perfectly rational agent, markets have perfect information, the bargaining game is convex (no holes or loops), prices/wages are never sticky, and there is zero friction/hurdles between local extrema (in the optimization landscape). I think if we are looking to metaphors, it might be better to look at chemistry, where many reactions need catalysts to overcome the activation energy. As with many public goods/utilities, there may not be a viable profit incentive for providing or creating such a catalyst. I also see many other career paths have similar or worse problems (such as the pilot shortage).

sundvor 3y ago

It's one profession that's just about guaranteed to be safe from AI replacing them, ie an in demand hands on skillset that just cannot be automated. Just had a gas cooktop replaced with induction, the whole switchboard had to be replaced and it was a big job. Guy didn't have training on installing a Tesla charger, so I guess he was busy enough as it was. He said people just love induction. (Got my EV 1.5 years ago, I'm just using the mobile charger for now; works well enough at up to 9A/240v - but trying to line up an upgrade nonetheless, as I currently can't take advantage of peak PV on really sunny days. Garage shares a 15A with the drier etc.)

throwaway892238 3y ago

> Capitalism has a way of solving these things. Just depends on what kind of "solution" you allow for. Job shortages may be filled by illegal workers, unqualified workers, or workers cutting corners.