> Max has over 95 million monthly subscribers, and one has to imagine that ~2% of the subscribers would pay for a single month of Max in order to see this movie

> Max has over 95 million monthly subscribers, and one has to imagine that ~2% of the subscribers would pay for a single month of Max in order to see this movie. But what already-paying subscribers /would/ do buys you no beans. You need to find 2% of the current subscriber base who would cancel except for this movie being released, or 2% new subscribers from this release. Which besides being implausibly large to begin with, isn’t going to happen without massive marketing investment — the non-customers who value this at $13 are already less likely than the average person to know it exists, being non-customers.