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Same response I gave the other guy - you can go look up the market here rather than conjecturing [1]. It was about 25% the day before. In any case, it seems ver

by johnfn 3y ago

Same response I gave the other guy - you can go look up the market here rather than conjecturing [1]. It was about 25% the day before. In any case, it seems very silly to discount prediction markets because the probability didn't work the way you expected it to in a single event. The whole point of probability is that it's probabilistic! [1]: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/1413/Will-the-UK-vote-to-leave-the-EU-by-year-end-2016 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/1413/Will-the-UK-vo...

blibble 3y ago
> In any case, it seems very silly to discount prediction markets because the probability didn't work the way you expected it to in a single event. prediction markets participants are idiots with no underlying knowledge betting according to their bias they are no different to the "markets" created at the dog track
- johnfn 3y ago
  If that were true then the results of prediction markets wouldn't closely track the actual results that happen, as the link I provided shows that they do. Also, you could be making tons of money right now! How's that going?
  - blibble 3y ago
    > Also, you could be making tons of money right now! How's that going? as someone who has spent most of their career working on trading floors watching professional traders do their jobs I'm perfectly happy staying the hell away from prediction "markets", thank you very much
    - johnfn 3y ago
      I've heard this argument before: you're fully capable of making tons of money, but not particularly interested in proving it for some reason.
      - blibble 3y ago
        > I've heard this argument before: you're fully capable of making tons of money, but not particularly interested in proving it for some reason. you have completely misunderstood I have zero interest in losing money by "investing" in outcomes of events that are essentially random because it's not investing, it's gambling
        qznc 3y ago
        It is something of both. Like playing Poker can be gambling, yet one can also play it seriously and systematically earn money. The difference is that a Poker tournament is just entertainment for the audience. With prediction markets there is the very useful side effect of accurate forecasts.

by johnfn 3y ago

blibble 3y ago

> In any case, it seems very silly to discount prediction markets because the probability didn't work the way you expected it to in a single event. prediction markets participants are idiots with no underlying knowledge betting according to their bias they are no different to the "markets" created at the dog track

johnfn 3y ago
If that were true then the results of prediction markets wouldn't closely track the actual results that happen, as the link I provided shows that they do. Also, you could be making tons of money right now! How's that going?
- blibble 3y ago
  > Also, you could be making tons of money right now! How's that going? as someone who has spent most of their career working on trading floors watching professional traders do their jobs I'm perfectly happy staying the hell away from prediction "markets", thank you very much
  - johnfn 3y ago
    I've heard this argument before: you're fully capable of making tons of money, but not particularly interested in proving it for some reason.
    - blibble 3y ago
      > I've heard this argument before: you're fully capable of making tons of money, but not particularly interested in proving it for some reason. you have completely misunderstood I have zero interest in losing money by "investing" in outcomes of events that are essentially random because it's not investing, it's gambling
      - qznc 3y ago
        It is something of both. Like playing Poker can be gambling, yet one can also play it seriously and systematically earn money. The difference is that a Poker tournament is just entertainment for the audience. With prediction markets there is the very useful side effect of accurate forecasts.