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We have no way of exploring the multiverse or running the same election more than once, so there isn't any evidence that the payout from a prediction market mat
by not2b 3y ago
We have no way of exploring the multiverse or running the same election more than once, so there isn't any evidence that the payout from a prediction market matches the probability of something happening. It's just collecting the predictions of people who are willing to bet money, weighted by how much they spend, and calling that the prediction. I don't think rich people are necessarily better than not-so-rich people in predicting something not related to their expertise, but prediction markets are weighted according to how much was bet.
- johnfn 3y agoIs this a response to the metaculus track record, which is an aggregate of the accurate of all predictions ever made on the platform, and shows that predictions fall close to accurate probabilities? Which part of the track record do you find fault with?
- not2b 3y agoI looked at it. Their FAQ says that they aren't a prediction market, and they operate differently. People aren't placing bets, so it isn't weighted in favor of the wealthy. They weight people based on past prediction success. So, maybe their approach works better. See https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/ https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/