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If prediction markets could tell the future one would imagine the first person to harness them would now be the most wealthy and powerful person to have ever li
by erulabs 3y ago
If prediction markets could tell the future one would imagine the first person to harness them would now be the most wealthy and powerful person to have ever lived.
So, you know, DOUBT.
- gruez 3y ago>If prediction markets could tell the future one would imagine the first person to harness them would now be the most wealthy and powerful person to have ever lived. 1. It's unclear how you or any person in particular would be "the most wealthy and powerful person to have ever lived", because other people would also be able to exploit it 2. Many predictions are hard to act upon, even if you know they're accurate. https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2023/10/30/what-a-third-world-war-would-mean-for-investors https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2023/10/30/w...
- verteu 3y agoThe stock market is quite similar to a prediction market (on the future valuation of companies), and it's made plenty of people wealthy and powerful.
- qznc 3y agoPrediction markets are not perfect but they are better than the usual alternatives like asking experts.