One good reason not to is that a 100/1 PE ratio is very high if your assuming $1b profit and a $100b cap. In comparison Google has a P/E of 20, and Microsoft 1

One good reason not to is that a 100/1 PE ratio is very high if your assuming $1b profit and a $100b cap. In comparison Google has a P/E of 20, and Microsoft 11. Those reasons you have given are basically a gamble on the assumptions that: - Facebook can earn a lot more money (5x - 20x more) - Facebook hasn't done it yet because they haven't figured it out - They will figure it out within 3 years (your exit window) It does seem like an overly simplified argument. I don't think monetising Facebook to the levels you think possible in a 3 year window is as easy as people think, and it might not actually be possible. You're also ignoring the possibility that this gamble isn't already priced into the stock.