5 ms·

> Still, NuScale has produced more than one million pages of documentation to get their SMR design approved by the NRC. One can imagine they also put a lot of t

> Still, NuScale has produced more than one million pages of documentation to get their SMR design approved by the NRC. One can imagine they also put a lot of thinking in the economic viability of the project. Just because the pile of sh*t is massive doesn’t mean there’s a pony somewhere underneath it.

credit_guy 3y ago
You mean the docs they sent the NRC? That's not a pile of shit. The NRC is one of the most conservative regulatory bodies anywhere in the world, you can't send them garbage. Oklo tried that stunt and fell flat on their face [1]. [1] https://www.nrc.gov/reactors/new-reactors/large-lwr/col/aurora-oklo.html https://www.nrc.gov/reactors/new-reactors/large-lwr/col/auro...
- _aavaa_ 3y ago
  No, I mean the economics. Oklo's issue was, and I quote, that they "repeatedly failed to provide substantive information [...] on the maximum credible accident (MCA) for the Aurora design, the safety classification of structures, systems, and components (SSCs), and other issues needed for the NRC staff to establish a schedule and complete its technical review." The NRC denied them, without prejudice might I add, a license based on an evaluation of the technical merits and safety of the reactor, not on its economics.
  - credit_guy 3y ago
    In that case you are right. I don't know what NuScale's economic argument was, and there's a (pretty good) chance that it will not work out. But, imagine that whenever you want a new car, the car company sent a crew to your house and builds the car in your backyard. All the parts needed will be shipped to your address, and workbenches, tools, machinery, too. They put the car together, paint it, dry it, and voila, the car is yours. Would it surprise you if it was 10 times more expensive than if it came from an assembly line?
    - _aavaa_ 3y ago
      Again, I am not disagreeing with you, building nuclear plants on a conveyer belt would allow you to decrease the per unit price as you make more of it. My issue with the approach is that the prices for those first (100) units, even before the inevitable order of magnitude cost overruns, results in more expensive electricity than the one off projects they aim to replace. This is coupled by the twin problems of a) alternative tech which is constantly benefiting from wrights law, and b) a lot of competition in the field fighting over a small number of reactors. Not much to do about a), so if this technology were to succeed, the government would have to play kingmaker and pick only one company such that they actually go through enough units to drop down the price curve. This might work domestically, but I foresee political difficulties when trying to convince other countries to abandon their homegrown tech in favour of yours.
      - credit_guy 3y ago
        You keep mentioning Wright's law, but SMRs are not about that. Changing the location of the manufacturing from on site to inside a factory will not have an impact of 10-20% on the cost, but rather a reduction by a factor of 10 or 20. Wright's law is about subsequent reductions.
        _aavaa_ 3y ago
        Let me even grant you that it works that way in theory. By what factor has this project gone over budget, 10x? What’s the next project we can look at to see how it fares? My other points still stand, especially the one about competition.
        credit_guy 3y ago
        I don't know the factor, I think it was about 3x. But, NuScale has no experience building anything. It's just a startup. It's a miracle they got their reactor design approved. BWXT however is the company that builds the Navy's naval nuclear reactors. They are cooperating with GE and Hitachi [1] to build a 300 MWe SMR. All 3 of these companies have plenty of experience delivering on numerous types of projects, including nuclear ones. I do think they have a chance. [1] https://www.bwxt.com/news/2023/03/21/BWXT-Awarded-Engineering-Contract-from-GE-Hitachi-for-BWRX-300-Small-Modular-Reactor https://www.bwxt.com/news/2023/03/21/BWXT-Awarded-Engineerin...

credit_guy 3y ago

You mean the docs they sent the NRC? That's not a pile of shit. The NRC is one of the most conservative regulatory bodies anywhere in the world, you can't send them garbage. Oklo tried that stunt and fell flat on their face [1]. [1] https://www.nrc.gov/reactors/new-reactors/large-lwr/col/aurora-oklo.html https://www.nrc.gov/reactors/new-reactors/large-lwr/col/auro...

_aavaa_ 3y ago
No, I mean the economics. Oklo's issue was, and I quote, that they "repeatedly failed to provide substantive information [...] on the maximum credible accident (MCA) for the Aurora design, the safety classification of structures, systems, and components (SSCs), and other issues needed for the NRC staff to establish a schedule and complete its technical review." The NRC denied them, without prejudice might I add, a license based on an evaluation of the technical merits and safety of the reactor, not on its economics.
- credit_guy 3y ago
  In that case you are right. I don't know what NuScale's economic argument was, and there's a (pretty good) chance that it will not work out. But, imagine that whenever you want a new car, the car company sent a crew to your house and builds the car in your backyard. All the parts needed will be shipped to your address, and workbenches, tools, machinery, too. They put the car together, paint it, dry it, and voila, the car is yours. Would it surprise you if it was 10 times more expensive than if it came from an assembly line?
  - _aavaa_ 3y ago
    Again, I am not disagreeing with you, building nuclear plants on a conveyer belt would allow you to decrease the per unit price as you make more of it. My issue with the approach is that the prices for those first (100) units, even before the inevitable order of magnitude cost overruns, results in more expensive electricity than the one off projects they aim to replace. This is coupled by the twin problems of a) alternative tech which is constantly benefiting from wrights law, and b) a lot of competition in the field fighting over a small number of reactors. Not much to do about a), so if this technology were to succeed, the government would have to play kingmaker and pick only one company such that they actually go through enough units to drop down the price curve. This might work domestically, but I foresee political difficulties when trying to convince other countries to abandon their homegrown tech in favour of yours.
    - credit_guy 3y ago
      You keep mentioning Wright's law, but SMRs are not about that. Changing the location of the manufacturing from on site to inside a factory will not have an impact of 10-20% on the cost, but rather a reduction by a factor of 10 or 20. Wright's law is about subsequent reductions.
      - _aavaa_ 3y ago
        Let me even grant you that it works that way in theory. By what factor has this project gone over budget, 10x? What’s the next project we can look at to see how it fares? My other points still stand, especially the one about competition.
        credit_guy 3y ago
        I don't know the factor, I think it was about 3x. But, NuScale has no experience building anything. It's just a startup. It's a miracle they got their reactor design approved. BWXT however is the company that builds the Navy's naval nuclear reactors. They are cooperating with GE and Hitachi [1] to build a 300 MWe SMR. All 3 of these companies have plenty of experience delivering on numerous types of projects, including nuclear ones. I do think they have a chance. [1] https://www.bwxt.com/news/2023/03/21/BWXT-Awarded-Engineering-Contract-from-GE-Hitachi-for-BWRX-300-Small-Modular-Reactor https://www.bwxt.com/news/2023/03/21/BWXT-Awarded-Engineerin...