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From what I've read so far, the data doesn't really support that argument. Even in my circles, the richer the couple, the less likely they have kids and so on.

by kredd 3y ago

From what I've read so far, the data doesn't really support that argument. Even in my circles, the richer the couple, the less likely they have kids and so on. I don't think it's just "if you have money you'll have babies" scenario anymore. All the countries that have tried to be super-pro-baby, so far, have failed to reverse the trend as well.

starttoaster 3y ago
"The data" doesn't really mean much to me, especially without context. By all metrics, I'm pretty well off now. 3 bedroom house, stable job with better income than anyone in my family ever dreamt of. But I spent the last 10-12 years digging myself out of poverty from homelessness. My wife and I don't have kids because we see them as a potential anchor back into poverty and the scare of going back literally haunts us. So I'm curious about your data, but I'm an anecdotal example of someone with money that is not having kids due to the cost. Besides that, haven't you ever heard before that the richer you get, the more parsimonious you become?
- kredd 3y ago
  Fair enough. My point was, in developed world, if you’re poor you might not have kids because of its costs. If you’re rich, why would you have a kid if they might experience extreme problems in the near future? And it’s also hard for me to imagine to have ~3 kids, even though that’s needed to sustain the population. But yeah, might be a big problem in the future, appreciate your input.
ponector 3y ago
Because there are no countries super pro-baby. Some countries have better policies, but still babies are really expensive to rise. Of course if you want them to grow in decent environment, with separate room for each child, good school, hobbies etc. Year or two of maternity leave helps, but parents will struggle untill school starts. Few hundred euro per month will help, but not too much, will not cover the difference in rent of bigger apartment. Career? Forget about promotions for few years.
Tade0 3y ago
France has had some success and while they're still below replacement, it's going to be a glide to population decline, not a hard crash like it's going to be with some other European countries. I mean, they had protests against increasing the age of retirement to 62 from 60, while in countries like the Netherlands the same figure will be 67 starting next year.
- corobo 3y ago
  Here in the UK my retirement age (can claim state pension) is currently 68. Work and personal pension age still seems to be 55. UK folks can find theirs here https://www.gov.uk/state-pension-age https://www.gov.uk/state-pension-age As for the on-topic I doubt I'll be able to afford a family in this lifetime haha, given up on that one as a goal a while back along with getting on the property ladder. Maybe if a relative or two leave an inheritence I can reconsider.
bryanlarsen 3y ago
From what I've read, it's a vaguely U shaped curve. The poor and the very rich have more babies than the middle class. That jives with my experience. Surgeon friends of my wife are both more likely to have 4+ kids and to have 0 kids than middle and upper-middle class friends who almost invariably stop at 2 unless the second baby turns out to be twins. The uptick in the rich is very small and insignificant but it is interesting. It's not enough to have any real impact on the birth rate, but it does provide evidence that people will have more kids if financial circumstances are favorable.
xhrpost 3y ago
This is 2018 but it states that women on average want to have 2.7 children. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/13/upshot/american-fertility-is-falling-short-of-what-women-want.html https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/13/upshot/american-fertility...
hotpotamus 3y ago
As far as I know, the biggest correlation to fertility is religion, which makes some sense to me as a non-religious person; I'm not willing to put children through this existence.
autoexec 3y ago
Polls have shown that people want more children than they're having. People can't afford the children they wish they could have.

by kredd 3y ago

starttoaster 3y ago

"The data" doesn't really mean much to me, especially without context. By all metrics, I'm pretty well off now. 3 bedroom house, stable job with better income than anyone in my family ever dreamt of. But I spent the last 10-12 years digging myself out of poverty from homelessness. My wife and I don't have kids because we see them as a potential anchor back into poverty and the scare of going back literally haunts us. So I'm curious about your data, but I'm an anecdotal example of someone with money that is not having kids due to the cost. Besides that, haven't you ever heard before that the richer you get, the more parsimonious you become?

kredd 3y ago
Fair enough. My point was, in developed world, if you’re poor you might not have kids because of its costs. If you’re rich, why would you have a kid if they might experience extreme problems in the near future? And it’s also hard for me to imagine to have ~3 kids, even though that’s needed to sustain the population. But yeah, might be a big problem in the future, appreciate your input.

ponector 3y ago

Because there are no countries super pro-baby. Some countries have better policies, but still babies are really expensive to rise. Of course if you want them to grow in decent environment, with separate room for each child, good school, hobbies etc. Year or two of maternity leave helps, but parents will struggle untill school starts. Few hundred euro per month will help, but not too much, will not cover the difference in rent of bigger apartment. Career? Forget about promotions for few years.

Tade0 3y ago

France has had some success and while they're still below replacement, it's going to be a glide to population decline, not a hard crash like it's going to be with some other European countries. I mean, they had protests against increasing the age of retirement to 62 from 60, while in countries like the Netherlands the same figure will be 67 starting next year.

corobo 3y ago
Here in the UK my retirement age (can claim state pension) is currently 68. Work and personal pension age still seems to be 55. UK folks can find theirs here https://www.gov.uk/state-pension-age https://www.gov.uk/state-pension-age As for the on-topic I doubt I'll be able to afford a family in this lifetime haha, given up on that one as a goal a while back along with getting on the property ladder. Maybe if a relative or two leave an inheritence I can reconsider.

bryanlarsen 3y ago

From what I've read, it's a vaguely U shaped curve. The poor and the very rich have more babies than the middle class. That jives with my experience. Surgeon friends of my wife are both more likely to have 4+ kids and to have 0 kids than middle and upper-middle class friends who almost invariably stop at 2 unless the second baby turns out to be twins. The uptick in the rich is very small and insignificant but it is interesting. It's not enough to have any real impact on the birth rate, but it does provide evidence that people will have more kids if financial circumstances are favorable.

xhrpost 3y ago

This is 2018 but it states that women on average want to have 2.7 children. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/13/upshot/american-fertility-is-falling-short-of-what-women-want.html https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/13/upshot/american-fertility...

hotpotamus 3y ago

As far as I know, the biggest correlation to fertility is religion, which makes some sense to me as a non-religious person; I'm not willing to put children through this existence.

autoexec 3y ago

Polls have shown that people want more children than they're having. People can't afford the children they wish they could have.