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I like the accelerationist story and I don't think I came to that opinion through manipulation. If I did it was by the club of Rome. The way I see it is - you'

I like the accelerationist story and I don't think I came to that opinion through manipulation. If I did it was by the club of Rome. The way I see it is - you're in a car heading for a cliff. You can go all in on the brakes and hope you stop in time, or all in on the gas and hope you can jump the gap. We don't really have enough data to know which is better, it comes down to feeling. And the time to slam the breaks was probably about 40 years ago. Since people back then elected Reagan instead, I'm of the opinion it's worth keeping the gas all the way down, just in case it works.

I_Am_Nous 3y ago
The issue I take with this philosophy is it's all or nothing. Sam Bankman-Fried admitting to being willing to flip a coin that saves or kills humanity points to this. Either we give all of our hope and money to tech billionaires to save us, or we'll just _________ and then humanity will perish. Also we need to trust tech billionaires who have shown plenty of times that they shouldn't be trusted to save humanity, so I'm not inclined to do that. Especially when it's these same tech billionaires who are informing us about the risks in the first place.
- neilk 3y ago
  Tyler Cowen found the rationalist/EA people impressive. But was skeptical that anybody had enough information and wisdom to see thousands of years into the future. After the fall of FTX he pointed out that they couldn't even predict the consequences of their own actions even one year into the future. Why should we trust longtermism (or TESCREAL or whatever we're calling it now)? (I'm left-wing so I normally find Cowen's perspective rather dismal. But I think the best part of conservative philosophy is the skepticism that any small group of experts knows best or can direct the course of history for the long term. And here he is resoundingly correct.)
  - I_Am_Nous 3y ago
    This is kind of hard to discuss since it seems like SBF didn't engage in EA "in good faith" and we can't really know if other billionaires are either. It does make it easy to discount EA because of the FTX debacle, but I guess if it was so easy to discount then maybe EA true believers weren't actually doing anything to offset that black eye. More than anything it seems like billionaires are trying to convince us to let them hold future monopolies because we just should, ok? >I think the best part of conservative philosophy is the skepticism that any small group of experts knows best or can direct the course of history for the long term It's a double edged sword for sure. On one hand, if "conservatism" is about resisting change for the sake of change alone it can restrict our growth as a society. On the other hand, changing something on the basis of the newest group of "experts" deciding we should is something that DOES need pushback in many cases. It really just underscores how society needs all kinds of people coming to consensus to be functional. As long as society attempts to come together and reach consensus on important things, I don't think we need to be saved by billionaires :)
    - Galacta7 3y ago
      > This is kind of hard to discuss since it seems like SBF didn't engage in EA "in good faith" and we can't really know if other billionaires are either. I wonder if EA could ever be implemented in a way that proves or disproves it as a viable strategy? It seems to me that the inherent problem is that people will always behave in subtle and not-subtle self-interested ways that make "true" altruistic behavior devilishly difficult to carry out in the real world (especially under the conditions that arise granting you the billions to carry the philosophy out). And therefore almost impossible to falsify. Sort of reminds me of the old adage, "Communism cannot fail, it can only be failed." With some people today exclaiming that true Marxism has never been tried. But I can't imagine what perfect conditions could exist that would allow either communism or EA to be carried out, without having to account for human nature in the end.
      - gnramires 3y ago
        I think the best interpretation of EA is still "Effective altruism is a question" (which I believe is more or less the original interpretation): how can you do the most (in my opinion, reasonable) good (within a budget)? It's trying to separate feeling good about doing a small act, versus simply pausing to think about what is effective. Sure, people will converge on claimed solutions to that question. But you can give your own solution[1] (I myself am an EA and disagree on some points, including giving locally in my third world country, and volunteering). The perspective is really valuable I think. Now that said indeed, don't try to make money at all costs in order to donate. First that can easily fail and be a direct net negative, and second there are secondary effects like losing trust and unexpected side effects on other people. Being honest and trustworthy is a really good idea. [1] Recently Give Directly dropped out of Givewell's top charities, for probably understandable reasons; I still like Give Directly and still give. Just get informed and give well! (to Givewell or not :P)
neilk 3y ago
You should look into how Futurism, the cultural movement, preceded fascism. Our era may seem frustrating. I guarantee that accelerating the causes of pain does not lessen the pain. Giving the reins to strongmen, to technology-enriched businessmen, to impersonal processes of capital investment and profit - there is no chance we end up anywhere good. I would rather not go through another World War to prove this idea wrong again. https://www.wired.com/story/italy-futurist-movement-techno-utopians/ https://www.wired.com/story/italy-futurist-movement-techno-u...
- suoduandao3 3y ago
  Technology can also empower the individual though. Look at the gunpowder revolution [1]. [1] https://www.britannica.com/technology/military-technology/The-gunpowder-revolution-c-1300-1650 https://www.britannica.com/technology/military-technology/Th...
BobaFloutist 3y ago
I think that's a very good metaphor, because, statistically speaking, there are very very few cliffs where pressing the gas gives you higher chances of survival than trying to brake and turn. And on top of that, "well we're already aimed at the cliff and going to fast" is a very good way for the people that put us in that situation to force the issue in the direction they want. "Well how bad can it be? You can't know it's going to be bad until we try it." -> "Ok, it's looking a little scary, but let's get a little closer." -> "Ok, this is probably a bad idea, but it's not an emergency yet, so let's chill out, ok?" -> "Ok there's still time to turn stop freaking out." -> "Ok now it's an emergency but it's too late to turn so we might as well go full speed ahead and hope it works out."
- suoduandao3 3y ago
  Yeah, with a car and a cliff hitting the brakes is a good decision. Civilizations have a lot more momentum than cars though. There's an analysis saying that if the Titanic had hit the iceberg head on, it wouldn't have sunk. I like the car analogy because there's opportunities for passengers to bail and thereby lighten the car for those who want to clear the cliff, but in terms of ability to turn or stop an ocean liner is probably the better metaphor.

I_Am_Nous 3y ago

The issue I take with this philosophy is it's all or nothing. Sam Bankman-Fried admitting to being willing to flip a coin that saves or kills humanity points to this. Either we give all of our hope and money to tech billionaires to save us, or we'll just _________ and then humanity will perish. Also we need to trust tech billionaires who have shown plenty of times that they shouldn't be trusted to save humanity, so I'm not inclined to do that. Especially when it's these same tech billionaires who are informing us about the risks in the first place.

neilk 3y ago
Tyler Cowen found the rationalist/EA people impressive. But was skeptical that anybody had enough information and wisdom to see thousands of years into the future. After the fall of FTX he pointed out that they couldn't even predict the consequences of their own actions even one year into the future. Why should we trust longtermism (or TESCREAL or whatever we're calling it now)? (I'm left-wing so I normally find Cowen's perspective rather dismal. But I think the best part of conservative philosophy is the skepticism that any small group of experts knows best or can direct the course of history for the long term. And here he is resoundingly correct.)
- I_Am_Nous 3y ago
  This is kind of hard to discuss since it seems like SBF didn't engage in EA "in good faith" and we can't really know if other billionaires are either. It does make it easy to discount EA because of the FTX debacle, but I guess if it was so easy to discount then maybe EA true believers weren't actually doing anything to offset that black eye. More than anything it seems like billionaires are trying to convince us to let them hold future monopolies because we just should, ok? >I think the best part of conservative philosophy is the skepticism that any small group of experts knows best or can direct the course of history for the long term It's a double edged sword for sure. On one hand, if "conservatism" is about resisting change for the sake of change alone it can restrict our growth as a society. On the other hand, changing something on the basis of the newest group of "experts" deciding we should is something that DOES need pushback in many cases. It really just underscores how society needs all kinds of people coming to consensus to be functional. As long as society attempts to come together and reach consensus on important things, I don't think we need to be saved by billionaires :)
  - Galacta7 3y ago
    > This is kind of hard to discuss since it seems like SBF didn't engage in EA "in good faith" and we can't really know if other billionaires are either. I wonder if EA could ever be implemented in a way that proves or disproves it as a viable strategy? It seems to me that the inherent problem is that people will always behave in subtle and not-subtle self-interested ways that make "true" altruistic behavior devilishly difficult to carry out in the real world (especially under the conditions that arise granting you the billions to carry the philosophy out). And therefore almost impossible to falsify. Sort of reminds me of the old adage, "Communism cannot fail, it can only be failed." With some people today exclaiming that true Marxism has never been tried. But I can't imagine what perfect conditions could exist that would allow either communism or EA to be carried out, without having to account for human nature in the end.
    - gnramires 3y ago
      I think the best interpretation of EA is still "Effective altruism is a question" (which I believe is more or less the original interpretation): how can you do the most (in my opinion, reasonable) good (within a budget)? It's trying to separate feeling good about doing a small act, versus simply pausing to think about what is effective. Sure, people will converge on claimed solutions to that question. But you can give your own solution[1] (I myself am an EA and disagree on some points, including giving locally in my third world country, and volunteering). The perspective is really valuable I think. Now that said indeed, don't try to make money at all costs in order to donate. First that can easily fail and be a direct net negative, and second there are secondary effects like losing trust and unexpected side effects on other people. Being honest and trustworthy is a really good idea. [1] Recently Give Directly dropped out of Givewell's top charities, for probably understandable reasons; I still like Give Directly and still give. Just get informed and give well! (to Givewell or not :P)

neilk 3y ago

You should look into how Futurism, the cultural movement, preceded fascism. Our era may seem frustrating. I guarantee that accelerating the causes of pain does not lessen the pain. Giving the reins to strongmen, to technology-enriched businessmen, to impersonal processes of capital investment and profit - there is no chance we end up anywhere good. I would rather not go through another World War to prove this idea wrong again. https://www.wired.com/story/italy-futurist-movement-techno-utopians/ https://www.wired.com/story/italy-futurist-movement-techno-u...

suoduandao3 3y ago
Technology can also empower the individual though. Look at the gunpowder revolution [1]. [1] https://www.britannica.com/technology/military-technology/The-gunpowder-revolution-c-1300-1650 https://www.britannica.com/technology/military-technology/Th...

BobaFloutist 3y ago

I think that's a very good metaphor, because, statistically speaking, there are very very few cliffs where pressing the gas gives you higher chances of survival than trying to brake and turn. And on top of that, "well we're already aimed at the cliff and going to fast" is a very good way for the people that put us in that situation to force the issue in the direction they want. "Well how bad can it be? You can't know it's going to be bad until we try it." -> "Ok, it's looking a little scary, but let's get a little closer." -> "Ok, this is probably a bad idea, but it's not an emergency yet, so let's chill out, ok?" -> "Ok there's still time to turn stop freaking out." -> "Ok now it's an emergency but it's too late to turn so we might as well go full speed ahead and hope it works out."

suoduandao3 3y ago
Yeah, with a car and a cliff hitting the brakes is a good decision. Civilizations have a lot more momentum than cars though. There's an analysis saying that if the Titanic had hit the iceberg head on, it wouldn't have sunk. I like the car analogy because there's opportunities for passengers to bail and thereby lighten the car for those who want to clear the cliff, but in terms of ability to turn or stop an ocean liner is probably the better metaphor.