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You've managed to nail my point exactly in your pugnacious response. A year from now, when Toshiba, Dell, and everyone else have pivoted and are talking up even

You've managed to nail my point exactly in your pugnacious response. A year from now, when Toshiba, Dell, and everyone else have pivoted and are talking up even better screen resolution, Apple's going to move the eight-ball again: maybe to 7 inch tablets, maybe to cores, nobody knows but Tim & Jon. Did you even read my post? I don't think Apple is "better" - I think they're great at wagging the dog, the dog being us consumers.

nkassis 15y ago
I believe it's only a matter of time before tablets become commoditized like the smartphone market is doing right now. Amazon is working hard on that. Some will still care for the Apple brand and whatever quality advantage it has but in the end Apple won't be forever selling 5 times what it's competitors are selling. You don't have to be the best at this point, just managed to sell enough to make some money per run.
- dreadsword 15y ago
  You're missing one point - if tablets become commoditized, Apple still wins because they're establishing ownership of the ecosystem today. You're spot on identifying Amazon as Apple's only real competitor.
  - huggyface 15y ago
    You're spot on identifying Amazon as Apple's only real competitor. Amazon was, however nowadays Google sells music, rents and sells movies, sells books, and of course sells apps. The reason they rebranded the Android market to Google Play is because of this ecosystem.
    - dreadsword 15y ago
      Fair enough; I'd say outside of apps Google has a credibility curve to climb however. The market doesn't perceive google as a content provider the same way it does apple or amazon, and both apple and amazon worked for many years to achieve the perception that they have today. So - my counter point would be that Google will be a competitor in time.
- jad 15y ago
  > I believe it's only a matter of time before tablets become commoditized like the smartphone market is doing right now. Why wouldn't tablets be more like, say, the iPod than the iPhone? The phone market is significantly warped by carriers. When people's contract are up, they walk into their carrier store and ask the salesperson what phone to buy. Articles about the Lumia 900 launch indicate AT&T is planning to push it as their primary high-end phone[1]. In this regard Apple does not control their sales channel as they do with all of their other products. This is significant, as recent data show that the vast majority of iPhone buyers purchased their device at the carrier's store[2]. The only real vulnerability Apple has in tablets right now is price, but I think the chances they'll leave a price umbrella where people can continue to swoop in at $199 and undercut the iPad is very small. I expect their pricing to play out like the iPod, where eventually there was a model at every price point from $50 to like $400 at $50 increments. They've also done this with the iPhone, where what started out as either a $500 or $600 phone is now sold for $300, $200, $100, or $0. If the quality of competing tablets does not improve significantly, there is nothing at all inevitable about the tablet market playing out like the phone market. 1: http://techcrunch.com/2012/04/09/att-going-big-with-lumia-900-advertising-could-spend-as-much-as-150-million/ http://techcrunch.com/2012/04/09/att-going-big-with-lumia-90... 2: http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/technology/apple-only-sells-2percent-more-iphones-than-best-buy/2012/03/23/gIQAIvEoWS_print.html http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/technology/apple-only...
  - huggyface 15y ago
    The phone market is significantly warped by carriers. When people's contract are up, they walk into their carrier store and ask the salesperson what phone to buy. The phone market is indeed significantly warped by subsidies from the carriers. If carrier subsidies didn't exist (if people didn't fall for it being subsumed into the cost of plans) the iPhone market would never have taken off (Ballmer in his original dismissal of the iPhone was actually right -- people won't pay $600 for a phone. They will, however, pay $149 and pay the rest over the contract period while acting blind to it). Those value options would decimate it. Aside from that whole "carriers against Apple" bit (completely opposite of reality), the tablet market already is playing out like the smartphone industry. With each successive quarter Apple's share drops (while their volume increases just as in smartphones). They once had it in the bag, and now account for about 1/2 of tablets, heading ever downwards.
huggyface 15y ago
A year from now, when Toshiba, Dell, and everyone else have pivoted and are talking up even better screen resolution Your point isn't even coherent. Apple made the increased resolution the primary selling point of the iPad 3rd gen: Everyone knew they would, and it was the worst kept secret in technology (indeed it was expected almost a year earlier!). Just as with the iPhone 4(s), no one is chasing them: Sure, there are products coming out somewhere in between (the 3rd gen iPad -- love mine, btw -- has a resolution far past the point of diminished returns owing to a naive scaling system), but no one is going to even bother trying to match them because...why. I can't follow your core narrative because it makes no sense. Somehow Toshiba making different screen sizes is bizarrely behind Apple? What?
- dreadsword 15y ago
  - Apple sets the market - Toshiba talking about screen sizes as a differentiator is not speaking to the market that apple has largely defined, and is highly unlikely to redefine the market. I'm not sure how much more clear I can make it. Enjoy your new iPad!

nkassis 15y ago

I believe it's only a matter of time before tablets become commoditized like the smartphone market is doing right now. Amazon is working hard on that. Some will still care for the Apple brand and whatever quality advantage it has but in the end Apple won't be forever selling 5 times what it's competitors are selling. You don't have to be the best at this point, just managed to sell enough to make some money per run.

dreadsword 15y ago
You're missing one point - if tablets become commoditized, Apple still wins because they're establishing ownership of the ecosystem today. You're spot on identifying Amazon as Apple's only real competitor.
- huggyface 15y ago
  You're spot on identifying Amazon as Apple's only real competitor. Amazon was, however nowadays Google sells music, rents and sells movies, sells books, and of course sells apps. The reason they rebranded the Android market to Google Play is because of this ecosystem.
  - dreadsword 15y ago
    Fair enough; I'd say outside of apps Google has a credibility curve to climb however. The market doesn't perceive google as a content provider the same way it does apple or amazon, and both apple and amazon worked for many years to achieve the perception that they have today. So - my counter point would be that Google will be a competitor in time.
jad 15y ago
> I believe it's only a matter of time before tablets become commoditized like the smartphone market is doing right now. Why wouldn't tablets be more like, say, the iPod than the iPhone? The phone market is significantly warped by carriers. When people's contract are up, they walk into their carrier store and ask the salesperson what phone to buy. Articles about the Lumia 900 launch indicate AT&T is planning to push it as their primary high-end phone[1]. In this regard Apple does not control their sales channel as they do with all of their other products. This is significant, as recent data show that the vast majority of iPhone buyers purchased their device at the carrier's store[2]. The only real vulnerability Apple has in tablets right now is price, but I think the chances they'll leave a price umbrella where people can continue to swoop in at $199 and undercut the iPad is very small. I expect their pricing to play out like the iPod, where eventually there was a model at every price point from $50 to like $400 at $50 increments. They've also done this with the iPhone, where what started out as either a $500 or $600 phone is now sold for $300, $200, $100, or $0. If the quality of competing tablets does not improve significantly, there is nothing at all inevitable about the tablet market playing out like the phone market. 1: http://techcrunch.com/2012/04/09/att-going-big-with-lumia-900-advertising-could-spend-as-much-as-150-million/ http://techcrunch.com/2012/04/09/att-going-big-with-lumia-90... 2: http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/technology/apple-only-sells-2percent-more-iphones-than-best-buy/2012/03/23/gIQAIvEoWS_print.html http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/technology/apple-only...
- huggyface 15y ago
  The phone market is significantly warped by carriers. When people's contract are up, they walk into their carrier store and ask the salesperson what phone to buy. The phone market is indeed significantly warped by subsidies from the carriers. If carrier subsidies didn't exist (if people didn't fall for it being subsumed into the cost of plans) the iPhone market would never have taken off (Ballmer in his original dismissal of the iPhone was actually right -- people won't pay $600 for a phone. They will, however, pay $149 and pay the rest over the contract period while acting blind to it). Those value options would decimate it. Aside from that whole "carriers against Apple" bit (completely opposite of reality), the tablet market already is playing out like the smartphone industry. With each successive quarter Apple's share drops (while their volume increases just as in smartphones). They once had it in the bag, and now account for about 1/2 of tablets, heading ever downwards.

huggyface 15y ago

A year from now, when Toshiba, Dell, and everyone else have pivoted and are talking up even better screen resolution Your point isn't even coherent. Apple made the increased resolution the primary selling point of the iPad 3rd gen: Everyone knew they would, and it was the worst kept secret in technology (indeed it was expected almost a year earlier!). Just as with the iPhone 4(s), no one is chasing them: Sure, there are products coming out somewhere in between (the 3rd gen iPad -- love mine, btw -- has a resolution far past the point of diminished returns owing to a naive scaling system), but no one is going to even bother trying to match them because...why. I can't follow your core narrative because it makes no sense. Somehow Toshiba making different screen sizes is bizarrely behind Apple? What?

dreadsword 15y ago
- Apple sets the market - Toshiba talking about screen sizes as a differentiator is not speaking to the market that apple has largely defined, and is highly unlikely to redefine the market. I'm not sure how much more clear I can make it. Enjoy your new iPad!