4 ms·

Sorry short and messy, ask an actuary. The probability of a breakthrough is IMO much the same as for an afterlife, not very high. There are lots of quacks about

• reasonattlm 15y ago
  Breakthroughs in science are a myth - what does happen in reality is that steady research that you and most of the rest of the world weren't paying attention to starts to achieve results. http://www.fightaging.org/archives/2011/07/there-is-no-such-thing-as-a-scientific-breakthrough.php http://www.fightaging.org/archives/2011/07/there-is-no-such-... "The point I want to make with all of this is that longevity science, work that will lead to biotechnologies capable of human rejuvenation, is no different. It is a process of incremental advances, requiring a large research community for any sort of reliable progress, and in which the nature of forthcoming discoveries are telegraphed by the nature of the work today. If you think that scientific breakthroughs are the way in which the world works, then you might be sitting there expecting significant advances in engineered human longevity to arrive no matter what the state of the present research community. Because some people are working on it, right? And it's just a few scientists and a eureka moment, right? Sadly not. One of the biggest challenges facing us today is that there is no large rejuvenation research community, and if we want to see real progress, that community must come into being - large enough and vigorous enough to match the stem cell research community pace for pace." The seed of the rejuvenation research community of tomorrow is the SENS Foundation and its allies, advisors, and supporters in the life science community. Much of their work today is not just in producing research progress, but laying the groundwork for the next twenty years of work: the people who build the applied technologies of mitochondrial repair, biomedical remediation of amyloid and AGEs, rejuvenation of the lysosome, and so forth, are in college today. That is why programs like the SENS Foundation Academic Initiative are so important: http://sens.org/academic-initiative http://sens.org/academic-initiative Check out their student research projects: http://sens.org/academic-initiative/research-projects http://sens.org/academic-initiative/research-projects