7 ms·

Restoring the Everglades to ensure South Florida's freshwater supply

98 points by DoreenMichele 3y ago

stevenwoo 3y ago
It talks about warding off rising sea levels but does not mention what happens if all or most of the everglades is under sea water, which looks possible in the lifetime of people who are children now.
- chadash 3y ago
  The NOA predicts sea level rise of 2 feet by 2100. There might be small chunks of the Everglades on the Southern tip of Florida that are 2 feet or lower, but I believe the vast majority of the Everglades are 10 feet or higher. We probably won't see that in our lifetimes. This isn't to downplay climate change or the risk of rising sea levels. These are very real, but I think that many people overestimate it. Even for Miami, which is very elevation, I don't think we will see it underwater... but we will see lots of flooding since the sewage systems won't be able to drain when the ocean level gets too close to the land. This already happens, but it will get worse.
  - hanniabu 3y ago
    Under normal conditions it won't flood, but there's definitely a risk during extreme weather like a hurricane where there's tidal swells
  - throwawaaarrgh 3y ago
    Everglades restoration would also help the aquifer fight off rising seas that make it vulnerable to saltwater intrusion and pollution caused by run-off from agricultural lands and residential areas. “Restoration is key because when water can once again move north to south, more clean water can fill up the Everglades and the aquifer, allowing fresh water to push back the salt water,” Crowl says.
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]
  - mistrial9 3y ago
    > Even for Miami, which is very elevation I was going to make a refined criticism but this typo makes it clear - neither you nor anyone else knows what is happening with sea level rise. Why question "NOA" - named NOAA ? because of recent activity in the western antarctic ice shelf. sorry to dismiss this comforting thought, but no, nobody knows what the sea levels will be in the year 2100 -- this is a serious situation and it is getting worse now.
    - deleted 3y ago
      [deleted]
    - pstuart 3y ago
      I'm guessing the models are extra conservative and there's going to be some oopsies in how it plays out. I'm not a climate scientist but it's already clear that things are happening faster than earlier predictions. What's doubly distressing is that it's been so highly politicized. I'm not $ure why that i$...
  - stevenwoo 3y ago
    Is this the report you are referring to? https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/hazards/sealevelrise/sealevelrise-tech-report.html https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/hazards/sealevelrise/sealevelr... It carefully says two feet if we curb emissions in the future - are they claiming we could agree on a freeze in the USA (as we are number one!) and developing large nations(China), but it will be many times higher but unpredictably so otherwise. It's also a year old and doesn't reflect the latest news on Greenland and Antarctic glaciers melting much faster than expected.
  - ddhhyy 3y ago
    I don't know what your source is for the 2 ft number, as any predictions of future sea level are dependent on emissions scenarios. Further, sea level is local--that is, different areas of the world will experience different amounts of local sea-level rise in the future, based on regional conditions. In south Florida, the estimated sea-level rise for the intermediate-high emissions scenario is approximately 5.5 feet by 2100. Attaining 2 feet of SLR requires an intermediate-low scenario. The high scenario results in 7 feet. A nice viewer is here: https://coast.noaa.gov/slr https://coast.noaa.gov/slr
    - magicalhippo 3y ago
      Storms will also get worse and more frequent, so I assume storm surges will get worse as well.
      - dataviz1000 3y ago
        Worse and less frequent https://sciencecouncil.noaa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/1.1_SOS_Atlantic_Hurricanes_Climate.pdf https://sciencecouncil.noaa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/1...
        magicalhippo 3y ago
        I was imprecise. I meant the worse storms would get more frequent. My point was that more frequent bad storms combined with modest sea level increase meant greater chance for overrun compared to just the sea level increase. This is noted in the document you linked to, where they mention most of the models project an increase in of Atlantic hurricanes reaching Category 4 or 5 even at an optimistic 2 degree C rise. They do note it's somewhat uncertain though, I'll give you that.
  - smt88 3y ago
    > I believe the vast majority of the Everglades are 10 feet or higher The Everglades are 0-8 ft[1] above sea level and average depth of the water is 4-5 ft[2]. If that elevation is measured at the surface of the water, then it would only take a few feet of sea-level rise to contaminate the Everglades. > Even for Miami, which is very elevation, I don't think we will see it underwater Most of Miami-Dade County was projected to be under water by 2060[3], and that was before the recent discovery that glaciers are melting much faster than we expected[4]. 1. https://www.nps.gov/ever/learn/news/parkstatistics.htm https://www.nps.gov/ever/learn/news/parkstatistics.htm 2. http://www.waterencyclopedia.com/En-Ge/Everglades.html http://www.waterencyclopedia.com/En-Ge/Everglades.html 3. https://www.cbsnews.com/miami/news/scientists-warn-south-florida-coastal-cities-will-be-affected-by-sea-level-rise/ https://www.cbsnews.com/miami/news/scientists-warn-south-flo... 4. https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/05/08/sea-level-rise-greenland-glacier-melt/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/05/0...
  - TSiege 3y ago
    As others have noted 2 feet is the low end of the estimate, but the threat isn't just from land lost to sea level rise, that's the. The first thing you'll notice living in Florida is coastal flooding, but the imminent and more pressing danger is salt water intrusion. You don't need to cover all the surface of land with water for that happen. If sea levels rise only 2 feet the fresh water sources along the coasts are threatened from salt water coming in from the sides. Florida is particularly vulnerable because it has very porous limestone geology. This geology allows for deeper interior advancement of salt water compared to other coastal areas, meaning less sea level rise is required for large fresh water impacts Here's a good visualization on what salt water intrusion is https://blogs.egu.eu/network/gfgd/2018/02/12/saltwater-intrusion-causes-impacts-and-mitigation/ https://blogs.egu.eu/network/gfgd/2018/02/12/saltwater-intru... Here's an article specifically about the threat to Florida's drinking water https://cnsmaryland.org/2020/11/23/salt-levels-in-floridas-groundwater-rising-at-alarming-rates-nuke-plant-is-one-cause/ https://cnsmaryland.org/2020/11/23/salt-levels-in-floridas-g...
throwawaaarrgh 3y ago
I'm not sure if people realize this, but major corporations have been (and continue to) focus on concentrating their power to own access to and distribution/sales of fresh water in the US, as a business strategy. They are actively betting on the water running out and planning long term to control your water. You can't live without fresh water, so it's not like you're not going to pay the exorbitant prices they'll be able to charge when it really starts getting tight.
- deadmutex 3y ago
  Sounds risky. Actively betting against RO not getting more efficient before water supplies dwindle down to the level mentioned in the comment
  - oh_sigh 3y ago
    Also betting that municipalities can't/won't just pull an eminent domain to regain access to the water. Honestly it sounds like a conspiracy theory to me. I'm sure companies are buying rights to water, but I suspect it's for straightforward near term interests, like, say, Poland Spring's owners buying water rights so they can sell bottles of water - not because they think they will be our overlords in 20 years or whatever.
    - melagonster 3y ago
      in another side, this same as people/companies spending money in real estate market, they trust they can earn money in future.
    - throwawaaarrgh 3y ago
      You underestimate the power of corporations, and the logistical and political difficulty of supplanting them. I receive internal company newsletters that talk about the need to get more water contracts due to climate change and the opportunities/competition ahead. It's not conspiracy, it's commerce. Like real estate, you buy it now when it's cheap because you predict it'll be worth a fortune in a decade or two.
xrd 3y ago
The scientist talks about reducing phosphorus but I live in Central Florida and see trains almost every day carrying phosphorus. At least they converted an old phosphorus mine (Alafia State Park) to bike trails, apparently the only bike trails with any kind of elevation in Florida.
- jessi25879 3y ago
  Sm-free
paltman 3y ago
https://floridapolitics.com/archives/629611-south-florida-farmers-hit-63-phosphorus-reduction-in-latest-sfwmd-report/ https://floridapolitics.com/archives/629611-south-florida-fa... "With nearly 30 years of data showing significant progress, it’s clear that farmers in the EAA have done more to improve water quality in South Florida than any other private group in state history."

98 points by DoreenMichele 3y ago

It talks about warding off rising sea levels but does not mention what happens if all or most of the everglades is under sea water, which looks possible in the lifetime of people who are children now.

chadash 3y ago
The NOA predicts sea level rise of 2 feet by 2100. There might be small chunks of the Everglades on the Southern tip of Florida that are 2 feet or lower, but I believe the vast majority of the Everglades are 10 feet or higher. We probably won't see that in our lifetimes. This isn't to downplay climate change or the risk of rising sea levels. These are very real, but I think that many people overestimate it. Even for Miami, which is very elevation, I don't think we will see it underwater... but we will see lots of flooding since the sewage systems won't be able to drain when the ocean level gets too close to the land. This already happens, but it will get worse.
- hanniabu 3y ago
  Under normal conditions it won't flood, but there's definitely a risk during extreme weather like a hurricane where there's tidal swells
- throwawaaarrgh 3y ago
  Everglades restoration would also help the aquifer fight off rising seas that make it vulnerable to saltwater intrusion and pollution caused by run-off from agricultural lands and residential areas. “Restoration is key because when water can once again move north to south, more clean water can fill up the Everglades and the aquifer, allowing fresh water to push back the salt water,” Crowl says.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- mistrial9 3y ago
  > Even for Miami, which is very elevation I was going to make a refined criticism but this typo makes it clear - neither you nor anyone else knows what is happening with sea level rise. Why question "NOA" - named NOAA ? because of recent activity in the western antarctic ice shelf. sorry to dismiss this comforting thought, but no, nobody knows what the sea levels will be in the year 2100 -- this is a serious situation and it is getting worse now.
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]
  - pstuart 3y ago
    I'm guessing the models are extra conservative and there's going to be some oopsies in how it plays out. I'm not a climate scientist but it's already clear that things are happening faster than earlier predictions. What's doubly distressing is that it's been so highly politicized. I'm not $ure why that i$...
- stevenwoo 3y ago
  Is this the report you are referring to? https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/hazards/sealevelrise/sealevelrise-tech-report.html https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/hazards/sealevelrise/sealevelr... It carefully says two feet if we curb emissions in the future - are they claiming we could agree on a freeze in the USA (as we are number one!) and developing large nations(China), but it will be many times higher but unpredictably so otherwise. It's also a year old and doesn't reflect the latest news on Greenland and Antarctic glaciers melting much faster than expected.
- ddhhyy 3y ago
  I don't know what your source is for the 2 ft number, as any predictions of future sea level are dependent on emissions scenarios. Further, sea level is local--that is, different areas of the world will experience different amounts of local sea-level rise in the future, based on regional conditions. In south Florida, the estimated sea-level rise for the intermediate-high emissions scenario is approximately 5.5 feet by 2100. Attaining 2 feet of SLR requires an intermediate-low scenario. The high scenario results in 7 feet. A nice viewer is here: https://coast.noaa.gov/slr https://coast.noaa.gov/slr
  - magicalhippo 3y ago
    Storms will also get worse and more frequent, so I assume storm surges will get worse as well.
    - dataviz1000 3y ago
      Worse and less frequent https://sciencecouncil.noaa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/1.1_SOS_Atlantic_Hurricanes_Climate.pdf https://sciencecouncil.noaa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/1...
      - magicalhippo 3y ago
        I was imprecise. I meant the worse storms would get more frequent. My point was that more frequent bad storms combined with modest sea level increase meant greater chance for overrun compared to just the sea level increase. This is noted in the document you linked to, where they mention most of the models project an increase in of Atlantic hurricanes reaching Category 4 or 5 even at an optimistic 2 degree C rise. They do note it's somewhat uncertain though, I'll give you that.
- smt88 3y ago
  > I believe the vast majority of the Everglades are 10 feet or higher The Everglades are 0-8 ft[1] above sea level and average depth of the water is 4-5 ft[2]. If that elevation is measured at the surface of the water, then it would only take a few feet of sea-level rise to contaminate the Everglades. > Even for Miami, which is very elevation, I don't think we will see it underwater Most of Miami-Dade County was projected to be under water by 2060[3], and that was before the recent discovery that glaciers are melting much faster than we expected[4]. 1. https://www.nps.gov/ever/learn/news/parkstatistics.htm https://www.nps.gov/ever/learn/news/parkstatistics.htm 2. http://www.waterencyclopedia.com/En-Ge/Everglades.html http://www.waterencyclopedia.com/En-Ge/Everglades.html 3. https://www.cbsnews.com/miami/news/scientists-warn-south-florida-coastal-cities-will-be-affected-by-sea-level-rise/ https://www.cbsnews.com/miami/news/scientists-warn-south-flo... 4. https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/05/08/sea-level-rise-greenland-glacier-melt/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/05/0...
- TSiege 3y ago
  As others have noted 2 feet is the low end of the estimate, but the threat isn't just from land lost to sea level rise, that's the. The first thing you'll notice living in Florida is coastal flooding, but the imminent and more pressing danger is salt water intrusion. You don't need to cover all the surface of land with water for that happen. If sea levels rise only 2 feet the fresh water sources along the coasts are threatened from salt water coming in from the sides. Florida is particularly vulnerable because it has very porous limestone geology. This geology allows for deeper interior advancement of salt water compared to other coastal areas, meaning less sea level rise is required for large fresh water impacts Here's a good visualization on what salt water intrusion is https://blogs.egu.eu/network/gfgd/2018/02/12/saltwater-intrusion-causes-impacts-and-mitigation/ https://blogs.egu.eu/network/gfgd/2018/02/12/saltwater-intru... Here's an article specifically about the threat to Florida's drinking water https://cnsmaryland.org/2020/11/23/salt-levels-in-floridas-groundwater-rising-at-alarming-rates-nuke-plant-is-one-cause/ https://cnsmaryland.org/2020/11/23/salt-levels-in-floridas-g...

throwawaaarrgh 3y ago

I'm not sure if people realize this, but major corporations have been (and continue to) focus on concentrating their power to own access to and distribution/sales of fresh water in the US, as a business strategy. They are actively betting on the water running out and planning long term to control your water. You can't live without fresh water, so it's not like you're not going to pay the exorbitant prices they'll be able to charge when it really starts getting tight.

deadmutex 3y ago
Sounds risky. Actively betting against RO not getting more efficient before water supplies dwindle down to the level mentioned in the comment
- oh_sigh 3y ago
  Also betting that municipalities can't/won't just pull an eminent domain to regain access to the water. Honestly it sounds like a conspiracy theory to me. I'm sure companies are buying rights to water, but I suspect it's for straightforward near term interests, like, say, Poland Spring's owners buying water rights so they can sell bottles of water - not because they think they will be our overlords in 20 years or whatever.
  - melagonster 3y ago
    in another side, this same as people/companies spending money in real estate market, they trust they can earn money in future.
  - throwawaaarrgh 3y ago
    You underestimate the power of corporations, and the logistical and political difficulty of supplanting them. I receive internal company newsletters that talk about the need to get more water contracts due to climate change and the opportunities/competition ahead. It's not conspiracy, it's commerce. Like real estate, you buy it now when it's cheap because you predict it'll be worth a fortune in a decade or two.

xrd 3y ago

The scientist talks about reducing phosphorus but I live in Central Florida and see trains almost every day carrying phosphorus. At least they converted an old phosphorus mine (Alafia State Park) to bike trails, apparently the only bike trails with any kind of elevation in Florida.

jessi25879 3y ago
Sm-free

paltman 3y ago

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/629611-south-florida-farmers-hit-63-phosphorus-reduction-in-latest-sfwmd-report/ https://floridapolitics.com/archives/629611-south-florida-fa... "With nearly 30 years of data showing significant progress, it’s clear that farmers in the EAA have done more to improve water quality in South Florida than any other private group in state history."