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The problem is those prices are wrong; they are pricing the hard thing. Renewable sells when it wants to, for dirt cheap. And they don't sell when they don't w

The problem is those prices are wrong; they are pricing the hard thing. Renewable sells when it wants to, for dirt cheap. And they don't sell when they don't want to. At that point, today, typically natural gas picks up the ball. Other storage is as much in its infancy as SMRs, as is "demand response". The pricing people compare so favorably isn't pure renewables, it's that renewables + fall back fossil mix.

matthewdgreen 3y ago
This is true. And it also highlights what the part I don't understand about these nuclear investments. Absent massive government subsidies, any nuclear-based solution has to compete against the renewable + fossil mix, which is dramatically cheaper than any nuclear solution. That means any nuclear investments will have to operate in a pretty unfavorable market until renewables reach a saturation point (maybe 50% of energy generation or more.) That point is still somewhere in the future. It's not clear when that saturation point will arrives (or if it will), but when that happens today's nuclear investors will also have to "bet" that storage costs won't have dropped to the point where storage eats a big chunk of the market for nuclear generation. And finally: in the course of taking this risky long term bet, nuclear manufacturers will have to build out huge amounts of manufacturing capacity so they can actually meet market demand. Anyway, the whole thing seems like a pretty risky bet. Maybe not such a risky bet if the technology was mature, but very risky given the fact that storage is relatively mature and basically needs a lot of manufacturing and process tweaks to wipe out the benefits of nuclear.
ZeroGravitas 3y ago
Renewables have a lumpy profile of energy provided. Nuclear has a flat profile. But demand is also lumpy, so the issues of matching supply to load are basically identical. What do you think France uses all the gas on its grid for? Why do they have excess electricity in the middle of the night that they need to tempt people to use domestically or export to other countries?
- Ericson2314 3y ago
  My understanding is that newer nuclear is better and ramping up and down? Perhaps SMRs can also help with this too? (e.g. turning on and off individual SMRs as a sort of "dithering".)

matthewdgreen 3y ago

This is true. And it also highlights what the part I don't understand about these nuclear investments. Absent massive government subsidies, any nuclear-based solution has to compete against the renewable + fossil mix, which is dramatically cheaper than any nuclear solution. That means any nuclear investments will have to operate in a pretty unfavorable market until renewables reach a saturation point (maybe 50% of energy generation or more.) That point is still somewhere in the future. It's not clear when that saturation point will arrives (or if it will), but when that happens today's nuclear investors will also have to "bet" that storage costs won't have dropped to the point where storage eats a big chunk of the market for nuclear generation. And finally: in the course of taking this risky long term bet, nuclear manufacturers will have to build out huge amounts of manufacturing capacity so they can actually meet market demand. Anyway, the whole thing seems like a pretty risky bet. Maybe not such a risky bet if the technology was mature, but very risky given the fact that storage is relatively mature and basically needs a lot of manufacturing and process tweaks to wipe out the benefits of nuclear.

ZeroGravitas 3y ago

Renewables have a lumpy profile of energy provided. Nuclear has a flat profile. But demand is also lumpy, so the issues of matching supply to load are basically identical. What do you think France uses all the gas on its grid for? Why do they have excess electricity in the middle of the night that they need to tempt people to use domestically or export to other countries?

Ericson2314 3y ago
My understanding is that newer nuclear is better and ramping up and down? Perhaps SMRs can also help with this too? (e.g. turning on and off individual SMRs as a sort of "dithering".)