Alternative hypothesis: they knew of the impending valuation, and were waiting for a valuation, so they could easily make a convincing offer without overshootin

Alternative hypothesis: they knew of the impending valuation, and were waiting for a valuation, so they could easily make a convincing offer without overshooting and wasting money. It's possible Facebook wanted Instagram before the valuation but thought they would end up with a lower price after the valuation, if only due to the caution required in the former case. And giving any indication that they were ready to buy Instagram would have ruined the plan. With that said, my idea is no better than the article's, and possibly worse in several aspects...