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> Most of the planet has below-replacement birth rates currently in a rapidly declining trend. No, most of the planet has above-replacement birth rates. The d

by vkou 3y ago

> Most of the planet has below-replacement birth rates currently in a rapidly declining trend. No, most of the planet has above-replacement birth rates. The developed world has below-replacement birth rates. People migrate from the former to the latter, resulting in net population growth in ~nearly country in the world. There are only a handful of countries experiencing population decline. Japan, Venezuela (Shocker), Russia (Shocker), Ukraine (Also a shocker...), and now that I think of it, almost all of the rest are other former Soviet Block countries. Their populations are declining, because people are actively getting the hell out of them, and nobody wants to/is allowed to move into them.

carlosjobim 3y ago
Have you actually looked at the data or are you just repeating things that were true in the last century? Here is the data: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN
- vkou 3y ago
  Yes, I have. [1] Have you? Have you considered that the countries at the top of the chart you linked have a lot more people in them, than the countries at the bottom of the chart you linked? Which is why the average # of births per woman, world-wide, is 2.3? There are exactly 19 countries that had a population decline between 2015 and 2020. 13 of them were former Soviet states. One is a failed state. [2] One isn't even a country, it's a territory of the US, and anyone in it can just buy a plane ticket, and move somewhere better[3]. Three are Western European, and one is Japan. All but two (Italy and Japan) have high numbers of people trying to leave them. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_decline#Contemporary_decline_by_country https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_decline#Contemporar... [2] Or so I hear on the news. [3] For some definitions of better, that include 'Having electricity at some point within 11 months of a hurricane making landfall.'
  - carlosjobim 3y ago
    The discussion is about real estate. Look at the world map, most of the world is below replacement levels. Exactly what I said. Even countries like India are just at replacement levels and will soon be below as well.
    - vkou 3y ago
      For real estate, it doesn't matter if your birth rate is below replacement levels, when your population keeps growing. Real estate doesn't care how people got into your country, it just cares that they did.
      - carlosjobim 3y ago
        I'm not going to argue with facts against faith. If you think it's realistic to literally colonize the entire planet with people from but a few countries, then you do. My interpretation is that real estate prices will fall to reach equilibrium.

by vkou 3y ago

carlosjobim 3y ago

Have you actually looked at the data or are you just repeating things that were true in the last century? Here is the data: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN

vkou 3y ago
Yes, I have. [1] Have you? Have you considered that the countries at the top of the chart you linked have a lot more people in them, than the countries at the bottom of the chart you linked? Which is why the average # of births per woman, world-wide, is 2.3? There are exactly 19 countries that had a population decline between 2015 and 2020. 13 of them were former Soviet states. One is a failed state. [2] One isn't even a country, it's a territory of the US, and anyone in it can just buy a plane ticket, and move somewhere better[3]. Three are Western European, and one is Japan. All but two (Italy and Japan) have high numbers of people trying to leave them. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_decline#Contemporary_decline_by_country https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_decline#Contemporar... [2] Or so I hear on the news. [3] For some definitions of better, that include 'Having electricity at some point within 11 months of a hurricane making landfall.'
- carlosjobim 3y ago
  The discussion is about real estate. Look at the world map, most of the world is below replacement levels. Exactly what I said. Even countries like India are just at replacement levels and will soon be below as well.
  - vkou 3y ago
    For real estate, it doesn't matter if your birth rate is below replacement levels, when your population keeps growing. Real estate doesn't care how people got into your country, it just cares that they did.
    - carlosjobim 3y ago
      I'm not going to argue with facts against faith. If you think it's realistic to literally colonize the entire planet with people from but a few countries, then you do. My interpretation is that real estate prices will fall to reach equilibrium.