4 ms·

AI is at step 4, transitioning to 5

baggachipz 3y ago
You could argue ML is at step 4, but LLMs (called "AI" for some reason) are most definitely in the major hype/dumb money being chucked at it step.
- baq 3y ago
  “Some reason” is you talk to the thing about anything and it answers and a lot of the time its answers make sense. I’d like to remind you that one year ago this was sci-fi!
- Yoric 3y ago
  Incidentally, "AI" (the original field called AI, not the latest definition of the term) definitely made it to 5. Except these days, we call some parts of it "SQL", other parts "the Web".
  - jowea 3y ago
    I once read an old book talking about AI including something called "expert systems" which are.... human-written if-then-else trees. The saying that we stop calling things "AI" when they become well-understood is real.
- GaggiX 3y ago
  It just happens that they are extremely useful for millions of people.
- deckard1 3y ago
  I'd definitely say LLMs are stuck on step 3: "Failure to live up to the hype" They are certainly impressive, but their utility-to-hype/gimmick ratio is incredibly low right now, which could cause a crash. The greater the disappointment the greater the crash. I'm reminded of 3D TVs. Remember those? Avatar came out in 2009. By 2016 the trend was dead. Despite the cries of "this time it's different." Of course, that time it was not different. The tech was impressive. Much more than the previous time the fad was around in the '80s. Remember the blue/red glasses? Absolutely not a single person talks about 3D TV today. The 3D TV was a technical success but it was too much of a gimmick that it died out. My Facebook feed is a never-ending stream of AI generated garbage. I think people are going to tire of it, realize the images it makes are about as goofy as a 2004 MySpace page, and maybe it will stick around to fill out the useless corporate email and document bureaucracy and boilerplate framework code monkey BS. But ChatGPT isn't writing Breaking Bad or The Sopranos anytime soon.
potatolicious 3y ago
When every LinkedIn thoughtfluencer is writing 3-page screeds about how they're thoughtfluencing through AI you really know you're firmly in step 2. Likewise when breathless reporters keep asking non-AI companies what their AI strategy is, you know you're firmly in step 2. Remember when Walmart was expected to have a "metaverse strategy"? Also worth noting that many (most?) technologies do not have a step 4 or 5. They're just permanently/indefinitely dead after the hype train goes off the rails (see: personal jetpacks)
- zirgs 3y ago
  Some AI tools like AI upscaling are firmly at step 4-5. Pretty much all the latest games are using DLSS or FSR.
  - johnnyanmac 3y ago
    This is why I hate the term "AI". Ai pathfinding, ai upscaling, and generative art are completely different pieces of technology that falls under the same marketing term. Strictly speaking, the decades of machine learning that's been going on in acedemia is also all "AI" as well. we need to drawn more disctint lines.
  - potatolicious 3y ago
    Yeah, I think "AI" as a term has always been super compromised to the point of uselessness. ML in general is firmly in steps 4-5 - it's integrated into our lives in so many places and generally without the users having to think about it. Car crash detection, automatic photo editing, heart rate sensing, etc. We use this stuff daily but there's generally little hype about the underlying tech (though some hype about specific applications). What's in step 2 is "Generative AI", which IMO is also a misnomer for "large language models". The viability and uses of these models is far from proven out yet.
  - coffeebeqn 3y ago
    The LLM hype is maybe blinding us to all the other use cases that the new powerful GPUs will provide. Maybe the real progress was the ability to train increasingly large models. I don’t think LLMs will solve most problems but there will be other models that can learn from their success

You could argue ML is at step 4, but LLMs (called "AI" for some reason) are most definitely in the major hype/dumb money being chucked at it step.

baq 3y ago
“Some reason” is you talk to the thing about anything and it answers and a lot of the time its answers make sense. I’d like to remind you that one year ago this was sci-fi!
Yoric 3y ago
Incidentally, "AI" (the original field called AI, not the latest definition of the term) definitely made it to 5. Except these days, we call some parts of it "SQL", other parts "the Web".
- jowea 3y ago
  I once read an old book talking about AI including something called "expert systems" which are.... human-written if-then-else trees. The saying that we stop calling things "AI" when they become well-understood is real.
GaggiX 3y ago
It just happens that they are extremely useful for millions of people.
deckard1 3y ago
I'd definitely say LLMs are stuck on step 3: "Failure to live up to the hype" They are certainly impressive, but their utility-to-hype/gimmick ratio is incredibly low right now, which could cause a crash. The greater the disappointment the greater the crash. I'm reminded of 3D TVs. Remember those? Avatar came out in 2009. By 2016 the trend was dead. Despite the cries of "this time it's different." Of course, that time it was not different. The tech was impressive. Much more than the previous time the fad was around in the '80s. Remember the blue/red glasses? Absolutely not a single person talks about 3D TV today. The 3D TV was a technical success but it was too much of a gimmick that it died out. My Facebook feed is a never-ending stream of AI generated garbage. I think people are going to tire of it, realize the images it makes are about as goofy as a 2004 MySpace page, and maybe it will stick around to fill out the useless corporate email and document bureaucracy and boilerplate framework code monkey BS. But ChatGPT isn't writing Breaking Bad or The Sopranos anytime soon.

potatolicious 3y ago

When every LinkedIn thoughtfluencer is writing 3-page screeds about how they're thoughtfluencing through AI you really know you're firmly in step 2. Likewise when breathless reporters keep asking non-AI companies what their AI strategy is, you know you're firmly in step 2. Remember when Walmart was expected to have a "metaverse strategy"? Also worth noting that many (most?) technologies do not have a step 4 or 5. They're just permanently/indefinitely dead after the hype train goes off the rails (see: personal jetpacks)

zirgs 3y ago
Some AI tools like AI upscaling are firmly at step 4-5. Pretty much all the latest games are using DLSS or FSR.
- johnnyanmac 3y ago
  This is why I hate the term "AI". Ai pathfinding, ai upscaling, and generative art are completely different pieces of technology that falls under the same marketing term. Strictly speaking, the decades of machine learning that's been going on in acedemia is also all "AI" as well. we need to drawn more disctint lines.
- potatolicious 3y ago
  Yeah, I think "AI" as a term has always been super compromised to the point of uselessness. ML in general is firmly in steps 4-5 - it's integrated into our lives in so many places and generally without the users having to think about it. Car crash detection, automatic photo editing, heart rate sensing, etc. We use this stuff daily but there's generally little hype about the underlying tech (though some hype about specific applications). What's in step 2 is "Generative AI", which IMO is also a misnomer for "large language models". The viability and uses of these models is far from proven out yet.
- coffeebeqn 3y ago
  The LLM hype is maybe blinding us to all the other use cases that the new powerful GPUs will provide. Maybe the real progress was the ability to train increasingly large models. I don’t think LLMs will solve most problems but there will be other models that can learn from their success