9 ms·

Spain also has the lowest fertility rate in Europe at 1.28. Not sure how much apartment living is cause or effect on that but it's a grim number. Every genera

by treis 3y ago

Spain also has the lowest fertility rate in Europe at 1.28. Not sure how much apartment living is cause or effect on that but it's a grim number. Every generation is only 60% the size of the one that came before it.

alfonsodev 3y ago
Does it take in account population age ? Spain absorbs a lot of European elderly that decide to retire in Spain.
- foliveira 3y ago
  The UN report shared by the sibling poster, has a graph that distinguishes the rates between Spanish and non-Spanish nationals, so I think that’s a positive answer to your question
jack_riminton 3y ago
That was shocking so had to look it up, and it seems to be true. UN article on it here: https://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/events/pdf/expert/24/Policy_Briefs/PB_Spain.pdf https://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/events/pdf...
- emptyfile 3y ago
  [dead]
codr7 3y ago
You'll find similar patterns in many countries. The population explosion isn't happening very much, quite the opposite.
Lord-Jobo 3y ago
This is slightly aside, but the concerns over fertility rates in the first world really seem REALLY misplaced to me. Population growth concerns are easily mitigated with immigration which will stay in demand until the rest of the worlds fertility rates catch up(40+ years), and the population growth concerns themselves are a reflection of an outdated (or soon to be outdated) economic model that we should probably focus on replacing or phasing out? Im not sure why THAT isnt the next step, and instead we have so many whackos in government trying to force pregnancies and other wild policies. Yeah, its a hard, big, complex problem and will probably require a decade of modeling/testing like what is happening with UBI testing in small cities. Maybe its just a reflection of the times when the people we elect reach for the most insane heavy handed solutions for every problem, and proceed to publicly fill their pants at the very concept of change.
- Unearned5161 3y ago
  I'm curious to hear what sort of economic models you have in mind that works with a non-growing or declining population
  - cies 3y ago
    We can look at "prosperous" (let's find some happiness index) countries that have seen declining population for a while. Japan comes to mind. It's not like Japan deteriorated into some extreme poverty because of it, right? So maybe it's not that bad, "to be in decline" (in population number, or related GDP), as we are meant to believe?
    - rootusrootus 3y ago
      > Japan comes to mind. I think it's a little too early to draw conclusions. Japan reached their peak population in about 2010, and the decline since has been mild.
    - luckydata 3y ago
      give it time, they will have issues taking care of their aging population without a sufficient number of people of age that can provide economic output and care. It's a problem that eventually fixes itself but until we work through the "backlog" it will be pretty painful.
      - cies 3y ago
        Do we have examples of this? I know these arguments, but I wonder if that will really happen. Maybe public care will shrink, but still many of the aging boom generation will afford private care, or not need much of it. > ...pretty painful. How will the subjected population notice that you reckon? Prices change, sure, but many of us on earth also live in a lot more luxury than 200 years ago: so we have some fat on our bones.
- analognoise 3y ago
  “We made it terrible for our own people to make families, but don’t worry! We can keep the party going by importing loads of people due to economic forces!” Sounds so incredibly shitty. If an economic system works so poorly for people they have to be imported (I.e. locals who want to form families can’t) it should be dismantled. I care about “global capital” far less than I care about my compatriots ability to form strong families. We should absolutely be worried by terrible birth rates.
2-718-281-828 3y ago
i don't see why that should be grim. having more people around isn't beneficial in and off itself.
- avgcorrection 3y ago
  It might be “grim” due to demographic skew in terms of age over the long term.
  - 2-718-281-828 3y ago
    you don't like old folks?
    - avgcorrection 3y ago
      Contemporary societal culture is biased against old folks—little respect, not valued for their wisdom and experience—but the problem with more older people is higher costs for retirement, healthcare, and a smaller pool of tax payers.
      - 2-718-281-828 3y ago
        i'm sure the oldies will figure something out and it can be assumed that societal culture will shift in their favor if demographics change towards them.
      - cies 3y ago
        Where I live I feel old folks make the rules, and make 'm well for their home-owning, investment portfolio having, pension fund living, selves. Look in the US? Pressie is near senile, senate is full grey. Not all countries are this bad, but where I live it's similar. But culturally oldies need more respect?
        avgcorrection 3y ago
        Both of these things are true. Your first paragraph is most relevant. The thing about the pressie and senators is only relevant to the miniscule minority of the most powerful people.
avgcorrection 3y ago
It’s also far from the most densely populated European country so your interjection seems out of left-field. (But: it might be pretty “urban” for that matter since some countries have a lot of empty spaces which bring down the population density.)
rewmie 3y ago
> Spain also has the lowest fertility rate in Europe at 1.28. Not sure how much apartment living is cause or effect on that but it's a grim number. Spain's economy is very screwed up. Unemployment rate tends to hover above 20% and I think it has the highest rate of students dropping out of basic education. To top things off, cost of living in urban centers is way way above the median income, specially nowadays. Young families have to make do with either sharing apartments/renting rooms or living way outside city centers in small apartments. In some cases the only affordable option is renting rooms way outside the urban centers. So the average Spanish couple has to make very hard decisions on if/when to start a family. Quite often the decision tends towards "not right now, we can't afford it." Marketing brochures tend to emphasize Spain's "terraza" lifestyle, as in people hanging out in cafes/bars/restaurants in the afternoon, evening, and even night, and brag about the fantastic social life that sprouts from there, but the ugly truth is that one important factor of that pattern is the fact that housing is very expensive and very low-quality to the point that staying indoors in one of those flats can have a huge detrimental impact on your mental health, and the only way to avoid that is to minimize the amount of time you spend indoors.
- jvican 3y ago
  > Unemployment rate tends to hover above 20% and I think it has the highest rate of students dropping out of basic education. The first claim is true, but there's a lot of under-reported economic activity, and a lot of fraud (people claiming they don't work when they actually do), so the unemployment rate figure can't be trusted. Your second claim around the highest rate of students dropping out of basic education needs a citation.
  - rewmie 3y ago
    > but there's a lot of under-reported economic activity, I'm sorry, but that's just hand-waving over the problem to pretend it isn't there. > Your second claim around the highest rate of students dropping out of basic education needs a citation. I learned that fact because the Spanish Government posts tv ad campaigns on how Spain has the highest rate if students dropping out of basic education, and how they should instead explore options such as pursuing trade education. If you really are interested on the topic, you could start by checking what OECD has to say about Spain's education problem, including how 27% of its 25-34 yo cohort (i.e., the latest generation entering the workforce) did not complete basic studies and does not have postsecondary education. Spain also boasts a NEET rate of 17%. https://www.oecd.org/education/education-at-a-glance/ https://www.oecd.org/education/education-at-a-glance/ Spain's astronomical dropout rate is not a secret. The issue was even reported in Swedish news outlets. https://www.thelocal.es/20221003/spain-has-the-eus-highest-rate-of-high-school-dropouts https://www.thelocal.es/20221003/spain-has-the-eus-highest-r... It's also noteworthy that Spain's horeca industry started to rely on heavy influxes of immigrants from South America to meet their demand, in spite of Spain having one of the highest unemployment rates in Europe.
tspike 3y ago
Grim from an economic perspective, perhaps. Meanwhile, the biggest thing you can do to impact climate change is have fewer children.
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
ajmurmann 3y ago
Not sure if you are from the US, but apartments in the US will give you a very different idea of apartment living than you can get in other countries. Due to restrictive fire cods, US apartment either are terrible or terribly expensive. https://www.niskanencenter.org/how-to-build-more-family-sized-apartments/ https://www.niskanencenter.org/how-to-build-more-family-size...

by treis 3y ago

alfonsodev 3y ago

Does it take in account population age ? Spain absorbs a lot of European elderly that decide to retire in Spain.

foliveira 3y ago
The UN report shared by the sibling poster, has a graph that distinguishes the rates between Spanish and non-Spanish nationals, so I think that’s a positive answer to your question

jack_riminton 3y ago

That was shocking so had to look it up, and it seems to be true. UN article on it here: https://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/events/pdf/expert/24/Policy_Briefs/PB_Spain.pdf https://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/events/pdf...

emptyfile 3y ago
[dead]

codr7 3y ago

You'll find similar patterns in many countries. The population explosion isn't happening very much, quite the opposite.

Lord-Jobo 3y ago

This is slightly aside, but the concerns over fertility rates in the first world really seem REALLY misplaced to me. Population growth concerns are easily mitigated with immigration which will stay in demand until the rest of the worlds fertility rates catch up(40+ years), and the population growth concerns themselves are a reflection of an outdated (or soon to be outdated) economic model that we should probably focus on replacing or phasing out? Im not sure why THAT isnt the next step, and instead we have so many whackos in government trying to force pregnancies and other wild policies. Yeah, its a hard, big, complex problem and will probably require a decade of modeling/testing like what is happening with UBI testing in small cities. Maybe its just a reflection of the times when the people we elect reach for the most insane heavy handed solutions for every problem, and proceed to publicly fill their pants at the very concept of change.

Unearned5161 3y ago
I'm curious to hear what sort of economic models you have in mind that works with a non-growing or declining population
- cies 3y ago
  We can look at "prosperous" (let's find some happiness index) countries that have seen declining population for a while. Japan comes to mind. It's not like Japan deteriorated into some extreme poverty because of it, right? So maybe it's not that bad, "to be in decline" (in population number, or related GDP), as we are meant to believe?
  - rootusrootus 3y ago
    > Japan comes to mind. I think it's a little too early to draw conclusions. Japan reached their peak population in about 2010, and the decline since has been mild.
  - luckydata 3y ago
    give it time, they will have issues taking care of their aging population without a sufficient number of people of age that can provide economic output and care. It's a problem that eventually fixes itself but until we work through the "backlog" it will be pretty painful.
    - cies 3y ago
      Do we have examples of this? I know these arguments, but I wonder if that will really happen. Maybe public care will shrink, but still many of the aging boom generation will afford private care, or not need much of it. > ...pretty painful. How will the subjected population notice that you reckon? Prices change, sure, but many of us on earth also live in a lot more luxury than 200 years ago: so we have some fat on our bones.
analognoise 3y ago
“We made it terrible for our own people to make families, but don’t worry! We can keep the party going by importing loads of people due to economic forces!” Sounds so incredibly shitty. If an economic system works so poorly for people they have to be imported (I.e. locals who want to form families can’t) it should be dismantled. I care about “global capital” far less than I care about my compatriots ability to form strong families. We should absolutely be worried by terrible birth rates.

2-718-281-828 3y ago

i don't see why that should be grim. having more people around isn't beneficial in and off itself.

avgcorrection 3y ago
It might be “grim” due to demographic skew in terms of age over the long term.
- 2-718-281-828 3y ago
  you don't like old folks?
  - avgcorrection 3y ago
    Contemporary societal culture is biased against old folks—little respect, not valued for their wisdom and experience—but the problem with more older people is higher costs for retirement, healthcare, and a smaller pool of tax payers.
    - 2-718-281-828 3y ago
      i'm sure the oldies will figure something out and it can be assumed that societal culture will shift in their favor if demographics change towards them.
    - cies 3y ago
      Where I live I feel old folks make the rules, and make 'm well for their home-owning, investment portfolio having, pension fund living, selves. Look in the US? Pressie is near senile, senate is full grey. Not all countries are this bad, but where I live it's similar. But culturally oldies need more respect?
      - avgcorrection 3y ago
        Both of these things are true. Your first paragraph is most relevant. The thing about the pressie and senators is only relevant to the miniscule minority of the most powerful people.

avgcorrection 3y ago

It’s also far from the most densely populated European country so your interjection seems out of left-field. (But: it might be pretty “urban” for that matter since some countries have a lot of empty spaces which bring down the population density.)

rewmie 3y ago

> Spain also has the lowest fertility rate in Europe at 1.28. Not sure how much apartment living is cause or effect on that but it's a grim number. Spain's economy is very screwed up. Unemployment rate tends to hover above 20% and I think it has the highest rate of students dropping out of basic education. To top things off, cost of living in urban centers is way way above the median income, specially nowadays. Young families have to make do with either sharing apartments/renting rooms or living way outside city centers in small apartments. In some cases the only affordable option is renting rooms way outside the urban centers. So the average Spanish couple has to make very hard decisions on if/when to start a family. Quite often the decision tends towards "not right now, we can't afford it." Marketing brochures tend to emphasize Spain's "terraza" lifestyle, as in people hanging out in cafes/bars/restaurants in the afternoon, evening, and even night, and brag about the fantastic social life that sprouts from there, but the ugly truth is that one important factor of that pattern is the fact that housing is very expensive and very low-quality to the point that staying indoors in one of those flats can have a huge detrimental impact on your mental health, and the only way to avoid that is to minimize the amount of time you spend indoors.

jvican 3y ago
> Unemployment rate tends to hover above 20% and I think it has the highest rate of students dropping out of basic education. The first claim is true, but there's a lot of under-reported economic activity, and a lot of fraud (people claiming they don't work when they actually do), so the unemployment rate figure can't be trusted. Your second claim around the highest rate of students dropping out of basic education needs a citation.
- rewmie 3y ago
  > but there's a lot of under-reported economic activity, I'm sorry, but that's just hand-waving over the problem to pretend it isn't there. > Your second claim around the highest rate of students dropping out of basic education needs a citation. I learned that fact because the Spanish Government posts tv ad campaigns on how Spain has the highest rate if students dropping out of basic education, and how they should instead explore options such as pursuing trade education. If you really are interested on the topic, you could start by checking what OECD has to say about Spain's education problem, including how 27% of its 25-34 yo cohort (i.e., the latest generation entering the workforce) did not complete basic studies and does not have postsecondary education. Spain also boasts a NEET rate of 17%. https://www.oecd.org/education/education-at-a-glance/ https://www.oecd.org/education/education-at-a-glance/ Spain's astronomical dropout rate is not a secret. The issue was even reported in Swedish news outlets. https://www.thelocal.es/20221003/spain-has-the-eus-highest-rate-of-high-school-dropouts https://www.thelocal.es/20221003/spain-has-the-eus-highest-r... It's also noteworthy that Spain's horeca industry started to rely on heavy influxes of immigrants from South America to meet their demand, in spite of Spain having one of the highest unemployment rates in Europe.

tspike 3y ago

Grim from an economic perspective, perhaps. Meanwhile, the biggest thing you can do to impact climate change is have fewer children.

deleted 3y ago

[deleted]

ajmurmann 3y ago

Not sure if you are from the US, but apartments in the US will give you a very different idea of apartment living than you can get in other countries. Due to restrictive fire cods, US apartment either are terrible or terribly expensive. https://www.niskanencenter.org/how-to-build-more-family-sized-apartments/ https://www.niskanencenter.org/how-to-build-more-family-size...