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Prediction markets : Have a system where people can make predictions in semi serious fashion in any field, record them with reasoning and probability numbers an
by passion__desire 3y ago
Prediction markets : Have a system where people can make predictions in semi serious fashion in any field, record them with reasoning and probability numbers and match them later on. Atleast this will prove how deeply they know about a field they are interested in. Tagline: Prediction is Intelligence
- pavlov 3y agoHow do you compare the results? Most of the time you can’t know the actual probability of events being predicted even after they happen, and so it’s apples and oranges. If you predict that it will rain on Friday, and I predict an alien invasion before Christmas, and both actually happen… Does that mean I was smarter because my event was vastly more unlikely? How would you score these two successful predictions and what possible value could those scores have? Where was intelligence applied here?
- passion__desire 3y agoIt would atleast show both of you are good in your respective fields. Also the predictions could be mild in nature since everything is based on hunch, we want the guy who gets the best hunches.