4 ms·

I stopped listening to Ray Dalio when he trotted out the meme about out of control crime in big cities at the beginning of one interview or another. I don't kno

I stopped listening to Ray Dalio when he trotted out the meme about out of control crime in big cities at the beginning of one interview or another. I don't know if he's lazy, or out of touch, but I don't like it when people are fast and loose with extremely verifiable information. Like, maybe you have expert intuition the future of inflation, that's great; but if you're going to talk about extremely verifiable information, like per-capita crime rates in American cities, then you should have your facts straight.

kyleyeats 3y ago
Would you say that believability is very important to you?
- cjohnson318 3y ago
  I think that supporting an argument with accepted facts is a good way to build trust.
deleted 3y ago
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gottorf 3y ago
> if you're going to talk about extremely verifiable information, like per-capita crime rates in American cities, then you should have your facts straight. To be fair, if his claim is "out of control crime" and you interpret it as "out of control crime rates", you're talking about different things. There's enough anecdotal evidence to suggest that in some big cities, the occurrence of certain kinds of crime (like cars being broken into) is up, yet reporting is down, leading to a lower crime rate that doesn't reflect the street-level reality accurately. Of course, this isn't a problem limited to this domain.
- immibis 3y ago
  [flagged]
  - wolverine876 3y ago
    What are you talking about? Do you know that person?
  - scottyah 3y ago
    I haven't heard about this, do you have a source on what crime-generating activities he was involved in?
- wolverine876 3y ago
  > To be fair, if his claim is "out of control crime" and you interpret it as "out of control crime rates", you're talking about different things. There's enough anecdotal evidence to suggest that in some big cities, the occurrence of certain kinds of crime (like cars being broken into) is up, yet reporting is down, leading to a lower crime rate that doesn't reflect the street-level reality accurately. That's too easy to just type; and therefore means nothing. If you think you have an argument, make a claim for what the rates are and show evidence for that. Show evidence that published rates are unusually low. In the Internet, post-truth era, anecodetal evidence - if you even have that - is less reliable than ever; we swim in oceans of misinformation and disinformation. People post their takes, repeat others, etc. endlessly. My anecdotal evidence, based on much time spent in cities that are depicted (by right-wing media - let's be honest) as crime ridden, and IME they are almost wonderful, there almost couldn't be a better time to be in them. Crime is low, cities are clean, streets are busy with people and energy, and people go about their days without much of a care. Is that true in every neighborhood? No; but that's not a realistic standard.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]

kyleyeats 3y ago

Would you say that believability is very important to you?

cjohnson318 3y ago
I think that supporting an argument with accepted facts is a good way to build trust.

deleted 3y ago

[deleted]

gottorf 3y ago

> if you're going to talk about extremely verifiable information, like per-capita crime rates in American cities, then you should have your facts straight. To be fair, if his claim is "out of control crime" and you interpret it as "out of control crime rates", you're talking about different things. There's enough anecdotal evidence to suggest that in some big cities, the occurrence of certain kinds of crime (like cars being broken into) is up, yet reporting is down, leading to a lower crime rate that doesn't reflect the street-level reality accurately. Of course, this isn't a problem limited to this domain.

immibis 3y ago
[flagged]
- wolverine876 3y ago
  What are you talking about? Do you know that person?
- scottyah 3y ago
  I haven't heard about this, do you have a source on what crime-generating activities he was involved in?
wolverine876 3y ago
> To be fair, if his claim is "out of control crime" and you interpret it as "out of control crime rates", you're talking about different things. There's enough anecdotal evidence to suggest that in some big cities, the occurrence of certain kinds of crime (like cars being broken into) is up, yet reporting is down, leading to a lower crime rate that doesn't reflect the street-level reality accurately. That's too easy to just type; and therefore means nothing. If you think you have an argument, make a claim for what the rates are and show evidence for that. Show evidence that published rates are unusually low. In the Internet, post-truth era, anecodetal evidence - if you even have that - is less reliable than ever; we swim in oceans of misinformation and disinformation. People post their takes, repeat others, etc. endlessly. My anecdotal evidence, based on much time spent in cities that are depicted (by right-wing media - let's be honest) as crime ridden, and IME they are almost wonderful, there almost couldn't be a better time to be in them. Crime is low, cities are clean, streets are busy with people and energy, and people go about their days without much of a care. Is that true in every neighborhood? No; but that's not a realistic standard.
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]