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No disagreement. This is only relevant for the AI-bro fantasy of AI becoming exponentially smarter than humans.

• vidarh 3y ago
  I don't think it's clear whether or not extrapolation in a sense that'd clear that bar is of much relevance to becoming smart at all.
  • simbolit 3y ago
    The AI-bro fantasy is of AI building a smarter AI, which then builds an even smarter one. If this isn't extrapolation, does it exist?
    • vidarh 3y ago
      I'm not sure whether that requires extrapolation or not. It depends on what you consider extrapolation. I'd be pretty sceptical of the notion that it requires extrapolation on the basis of a use of the term as extreme as the one above. (And btw., if that is what you consider the "AI-bro fantasy" then I'm firmly in that camp. There is no logical reason to assume that's not possible; short of identifying a non-deterministic, non-materialistic source of intelligence in human brains that violates known physics and that we can't emulate, it's just a question of when, not if, and the reason for not going full tilt on that right now is down to a variant of the Wait Calculation, not a need for intelligence to kick it off - that is, trying to kickstart that now is likely to be more expensive and not be any faster than trying to kickstart it next year, and so on, and the question is guessing at when that stops being true)