4 ms·

There is a better case against the airlines since like you said, Sprint was clearly about to go bust had the merger not happened, and there still would’ve been

There is a better case against the airlines since like you said, Sprint was clearly about to go bust had the merger not happened, and there still would’ve been three cell phone companies.

lotsofpulp 3y ago
Pre consolidation airlines were not any more stable than Sprint. Even now, JetBlue is about to get merged with Spirit.
- bobthepanda 3y ago
  JetBlue and Spirit are both profitable. IIRC the deal is more about the fact that they share a common aircraft type, and Airbus’ order backlog is measured in years.
  - lotsofpulp 3y ago
    JetBlue and Spirit do not have profits in recent years: https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/JBLU/jetblue-airways/net-income https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/JBLU/jetblue-airwa... https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/SAVE/spirit-airlines/net-income https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/SAVE/spirit-airlin... I am not an expert in airlines, and I am sure there are COVID effects, but it seems like the other domestic airlines have bounced back quicker since they are showing profits. But more importantly, I remember Jetblue wanting to provide a better than average flying experience when the airline started, so I presume the only reason they would want to merge with Spirit, a company who does the exact opposite, is because they are facing financial headwinds.
    - bobthepanda 3y ago
      Plane availability. Jetblue and Spirit both have a strategy of lowering costs by only running one aircraft type, the Airbus A320 family, which means that their pilots, flight attendants, mechanics, only need training on one type of aircraft and can be flexibly deployed, they only maintain one set of spare parts, etc. The Airbus order backlog is several years long. If you need planes earlier than that, your only recourse is to buy someone else's planes. --- FWIW, Q2 2023, JBLU reported highest quarterly net profit: https://simpleflying.com/jetblue-record-quarterly-revenues-q2-2023/ https://simpleflying.com/jetblue-record-quarterly-revenues-q...
      - atlasunshrugged 3y ago
        That's the strategy that Southwest pioneered right?
        bobthepanda 3y ago
        Southwest, Ryanair, EasyJet etc. At this point it is the bread and butter of a low cost carrier. JBLU originally started as one. Legacy carriers are more likely to get different types of planes for different missions, and pit the duopolists against each other to secure better pricing.
      - selectodude 3y ago
        JetBlue has been flying the E190 for like two decades now.
        bobthepanda 3y ago
        They’ve also committed to phasing them out by 2026 to go all in on Airbus. Still, the two aircraft fleet is a lot smaller than what you would see on a legacy carrier.
    - blessedwhiskers 3y ago
      JetBlue also has pretty limited landing slots on the west coast, and missed out on purchasing Virgin Atlantic to Alaska a few years ago, which would have allowed them to diversify more outside the eastern US. Spirit isn't a perfect match (different market segments), but otherwise they use the same model of aircraft and have some operational efficiencies. I'd hazard a guess Spirit's branding and low cost model will be tossed out in favor of JetBlue's operating model, and that segment of the market will be left to Frontier.
    - paul7986 3y ago
      Spirit is a fine airline if you fly and travel lightly(belongings in book bag)! Per my ten flights this year with them (out of BWI, Miami, Vegas & Reno) it's a Pay less and get out the airport quickest experience. Their planes i flown on are new planes with seats that are a bit less comfortable. Their refund policy is awful ..just don't cancel. Theres tons of negative press about them and I bet a lot of it is stirred up by fake news marketing via their competitors. TikTok has lots of influencers / social media professionals trashing them with their fake news marketing videos (like a few such tikTok(ers) have millions of followers). If JetBlue buys them no more cheap good flights and that cuts out a lot people who can afford to fly with them now and that's crap..flying/traveling should be affordable for many not just middle to upper class!
      - vinaypai 3y ago
        > Theres tons of negative press about them and I bet a lot of it is stirred up by fake news marketing What are some examples of this "fake news marketing" that you're claiming?
      - metiscus 3y ago
        Spirit is very hit or miss depending on the route. I flew from Orlando to Pensacola and back three times in two weeks earlier this year and was delayed an average of 3 hours every single flight. The reported cause of the delay was "aircraft maintenance" although in two cases the aircraft had been at the airport overnight. The pilot explained to us during announcements that sometimes they skip longer maintenance when planes are there overnight. Otherwise, I've had okay experiences with Spirit prior to this year but I won't be flying with them again since it is shorter to drive than suffer their constant delays.
cma 3y ago
> Sprint was clearly about to go bust had the merger not happened, and there still would’ve been three cell phone companies. Or alternatively, Sprint's shareholders would have been wiped out, and its creditors could have continued operating it after taking a loss on their loans, preserving competition in the cellular service market. My source is that they reported they were set to be cash flow positive (meaning profitable outside of servicing debt) in 2019: https://seekingalpha.com/news/3413933-sprint-cfo-sees-t-mobile-deal-progressing-positive-cash-flow-ahead https://seekingalpha.com/news/3413933-sprint-cfo-sees-t-mobi... That still might have been untenable for their shareholders, but it is misleading to say the alternative was still three cellular service companies.
- paulddraper 3y ago
  Or the creditors would have sold assets to TMobile anyway.
silisili 3y ago
There's not three: do not forget Dish. They bought a ton of spectrum prior, and got Boost, spectrum, and partnership with TMo after the merger. Despite a brutal earnings call yesterday, they are expanding network aggressively. They have the bankroll to ramp up, unlike Sprint who was circling the drain. I think ultimately there will be 4 healthy competitors, not 3.
- bobthepanda 3y ago
  I legitimately did not know Dish had a phone network. (I also don’t have TV.) Best of luck to them, some disruption would be nice. I would like at least one cell provider to not have dead zones in my area.

There is a better case against the airlines since like you said, Sprint was clearly about to go bust had the merger not happened, and there still would’ve been three cell phone companies.

lotsofpulp 3y ago

Pre consolidation airlines were not any more stable than Sprint. Even now, JetBlue is about to get merged with Spirit.

bobthepanda 3y ago
JetBlue and Spirit are both profitable. IIRC the deal is more about the fact that they share a common aircraft type, and Airbus’ order backlog is measured in years.
- lotsofpulp 3y ago
  JetBlue and Spirit do not have profits in recent years: https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/JBLU/jetblue-airways/net-income https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/JBLU/jetblue-airwa... https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/SAVE/spirit-airlines/net-income https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/SAVE/spirit-airlin... I am not an expert in airlines, and I am sure there are COVID effects, but it seems like the other domestic airlines have bounced back quicker since they are showing profits. But more importantly, I remember Jetblue wanting to provide a better than average flying experience when the airline started, so I presume the only reason they would want to merge with Spirit, a company who does the exact opposite, is because they are facing financial headwinds.
  - bobthepanda 3y ago
    Plane availability. Jetblue and Spirit both have a strategy of lowering costs by only running one aircraft type, the Airbus A320 family, which means that their pilots, flight attendants, mechanics, only need training on one type of aircraft and can be flexibly deployed, they only maintain one set of spare parts, etc. The Airbus order backlog is several years long. If you need planes earlier than that, your only recourse is to buy someone else's planes. --- FWIW, Q2 2023, JBLU reported highest quarterly net profit: https://simpleflying.com/jetblue-record-quarterly-revenues-q2-2023/ https://simpleflying.com/jetblue-record-quarterly-revenues-q...
    - atlasunshrugged 3y ago
      That's the strategy that Southwest pioneered right?
      - bobthepanda 3y ago
        Southwest, Ryanair, EasyJet etc. At this point it is the bread and butter of a low cost carrier. JBLU originally started as one. Legacy carriers are more likely to get different types of planes for different missions, and pit the duopolists against each other to secure better pricing.
    - selectodude 3y ago
      JetBlue has been flying the E190 for like two decades now.
      - bobthepanda 3y ago
        They’ve also committed to phasing them out by 2026 to go all in on Airbus. Still, the two aircraft fleet is a lot smaller than what you would see on a legacy carrier.
  - blessedwhiskers 3y ago
    JetBlue also has pretty limited landing slots on the west coast, and missed out on purchasing Virgin Atlantic to Alaska a few years ago, which would have allowed them to diversify more outside the eastern US. Spirit isn't a perfect match (different market segments), but otherwise they use the same model of aircraft and have some operational efficiencies. I'd hazard a guess Spirit's branding and low cost model will be tossed out in favor of JetBlue's operating model, and that segment of the market will be left to Frontier.
  - paul7986 3y ago
    Spirit is a fine airline if you fly and travel lightly(belongings in book bag)! Per my ten flights this year with them (out of BWI, Miami, Vegas & Reno) it's a Pay less and get out the airport quickest experience. Their planes i flown on are new planes with seats that are a bit less comfortable. Their refund policy is awful ..just don't cancel. Theres tons of negative press about them and I bet a lot of it is stirred up by fake news marketing via their competitors. TikTok has lots of influencers / social media professionals trashing them with their fake news marketing videos (like a few such tikTok(ers) have millions of followers). If JetBlue buys them no more cheap good flights and that cuts out a lot people who can afford to fly with them now and that's crap..flying/traveling should be affordable for many not just middle to upper class!
    - vinaypai 3y ago
      > Theres tons of negative press about them and I bet a lot of it is stirred up by fake news marketing What are some examples of this "fake news marketing" that you're claiming?
    - metiscus 3y ago
      Spirit is very hit or miss depending on the route. I flew from Orlando to Pensacola and back three times in two weeks earlier this year and was delayed an average of 3 hours every single flight. The reported cause of the delay was "aircraft maintenance" although in two cases the aircraft had been at the airport overnight. The pilot explained to us during announcements that sometimes they skip longer maintenance when planes are there overnight. Otherwise, I've had okay experiences with Spirit prior to this year but I won't be flying with them again since it is shorter to drive than suffer their constant delays.

cma 3y ago

> Sprint was clearly about to go bust had the merger not happened, and there still would’ve been three cell phone companies. Or alternatively, Sprint's shareholders would have been wiped out, and its creditors could have continued operating it after taking a loss on their loans, preserving competition in the cellular service market. My source is that they reported they were set to be cash flow positive (meaning profitable outside of servicing debt) in 2019: https://seekingalpha.com/news/3413933-sprint-cfo-sees-t-mobile-deal-progressing-positive-cash-flow-ahead https://seekingalpha.com/news/3413933-sprint-cfo-sees-t-mobi... That still might have been untenable for their shareholders, but it is misleading to say the alternative was still three cellular service companies.

paulddraper 3y ago
Or the creditors would have sold assets to TMobile anyway.

silisili 3y ago

There's not three: do not forget Dish. They bought a ton of spectrum prior, and got Boost, spectrum, and partnership with TMo after the merger. Despite a brutal earnings call yesterday, they are expanding network aggressively. They have the bankroll to ramp up, unlike Sprint who was circling the drain. I think ultimately there will be 4 healthy competitors, not 3.

bobthepanda 3y ago
I legitimately did not know Dish had a phone network. (I also don’t have TV.) Best of luck to them, some disruption would be nice. I would like at least one cell provider to not have dead zones in my area.