3 ms·

I worked with an older fart many years ago who taught me some of my best investment strategy. He said that one time his 4 year old niece asked for an IPod for

I worked with an older fart many years ago who taught me some of my best investment strategy. He said that one time his 4 year old niece asked for an IPod for Christmas. He said that he didn’t know what that was; but if a 4 year old did, then it was probably gonna be big. So basically if common folks in your network interact with a particular product; then there is a good chance that it’s a billion dollar product. The inverse is the same, in that if few people have heard of a product, then it’s probably not a unicorn. Applying that logic to both WeWork and Theranos back when Uber was at peak, I asked around within my network if people knew of the anyone who had experience with either company. People said nope; never heard of it or used it. I thought that was very strange considering how often both companies were dominating HN at the time with mindshare about their insane success. If it walks like a duck, and talks like a duck; it’s probably a duck.

tim333 3y ago
Not sure that test works well with WeWork. Where I was in London most people had heard of WeWork as they had lots of events with free beer. Obviously it didn't seem to make them much money.
- BobaFloutist 3y ago
  You need to ask people in different circles though. A cross section of people in your age bracket, people in your neighborhood, people in your family, people you work with, and people you buy things from should give you better info than just one of those groups.
- hoofhearted 3y ago
  It did work for WeWork actually lol.. I kept seeing them pop up in strange places as I traveled the country for work; but I hadn’t ever met any business who used them, and I kept seeing them headline HN about being the next great unicorn. I thought it was strange that I didn’t know at least a single person in my business network with any experience of WeWork; most said “Who?” Then I later asked some of my non tech common folk friends if they knew anyone with any type of experience with WeWork. Same response lol.. Wasn’t long after that headlines started to come up in the news about turmoil. Rule 1: If everyone loves it including toddlers; it’s a good buy Rule 2: If your gut tells you something isn’t right; prod around and get some feedback on your instinct. If things aren’t adding up, just stay away. It’s not worth the risk or effort if things are fishy. Things might not unravel immediately, but usually where there is smoke, there is fire. If it walks like a duck, and talks like a duck, and even looks like a duck… It’s probably a duck honk honk :)
- hoofhearted 3y ago
  London and other major cities are a positive signal of growth and product market fit. Doesn’t mean there is stability within. Then analyze the inverse of this as a control test. It claims to be a unicorn, and is dominating major cities… But the people in the suburbs and sticks have never heard of said company before. Starting to look like more a duck, rather than a unicorn.

tim333 3y ago

Not sure that test works well with WeWork. Where I was in London most people had heard of WeWork as they had lots of events with free beer. Obviously it didn't seem to make them much money.

BobaFloutist 3y ago
You need to ask people in different circles though. A cross section of people in your age bracket, people in your neighborhood, people in your family, people you work with, and people you buy things from should give you better info than just one of those groups.
hoofhearted 3y ago
It did work for WeWork actually lol.. I kept seeing them pop up in strange places as I traveled the country for work; but I hadn’t ever met any business who used them, and I kept seeing them headline HN about being the next great unicorn. I thought it was strange that I didn’t know at least a single person in my business network with any experience of WeWork; most said “Who?” Then I later asked some of my non tech common folk friends if they knew anyone with any type of experience with WeWork. Same response lol.. Wasn’t long after that headlines started to come up in the news about turmoil. Rule 1: If everyone loves it including toddlers; it’s a good buy Rule 2: If your gut tells you something isn’t right; prod around and get some feedback on your instinct. If things aren’t adding up, just stay away. It’s not worth the risk or effort if things are fishy. Things might not unravel immediately, but usually where there is smoke, there is fire. If it walks like a duck, and talks like a duck, and even looks like a duck… It’s probably a duck honk honk :)
hoofhearted 3y ago
London and other major cities are a positive signal of growth and product market fit. Doesn’t mean there is stability within. Then analyze the inverse of this as a control test. It claims to be a unicorn, and is dominating major cities… But the people in the suburbs and sticks have never heard of said company before. Starting to look like more a duck, rather than a unicorn.