I'd argue there are even bigger risks in swinging for the fences which is almost by definition a low probability/high reward endeavor. You might not have to rel

I'd argue there are even bigger risks in swinging for the fences which is almost by definition a low probability/high reward endeavor. You might not have to rely on the impact of a Google algorithm change as much, but you've now got to worry about a host of other issues: cofounder problems, hiring employees, raising money, running out of money, dealing with well-funded competitors, etc etc etc. There's risk in both paths. As an aside, this why I like diversifying my portfolio (ie, I'd rather have five apps making $1K/month than one making $5K). There are downsides to this path too, but I think it's a decent way to minimize the risk if you want to do this professionally long term (as I do) and are not relying on an acquisition.