4 ms·

That's actually only partially true; there's quite a bit of work that attempts to capture this idea, particularly in taxa that have relatively well-understood a

That's actually only partially true; there's quite a bit of work that attempts to capture this idea, particularly in taxa that have relatively well-understood adaptive dynamics. Here's a good general example: https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rspb.2017.0386 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rspb.201... You are correct that much of these dynamics aren't captured in long-time-scale climate models, though. But it's being modeled quite frequently in different contexts, especially ecological ones.

loceng 3y ago
And then there's the unknown of what genetics might show up down the line once increased CO2 being present starts to be selected for; including I doubt taking into account externalized factors that may occur in larger steps, like once there's more plant life to capture CO2, then animals will become larger with more food (plant and other animals), which then captures-stores more CO2, etc. Is it even remotely possible to accurately extrapolate to what the end points all may look like? It's highly likely it's not unless you're monitoring "everything" for 100s or 1000s of years to see just how far cycles will propagate.
- kuhewa 3y ago
  > then animals will become larger with more food But see the "temperature size rule". There's too much uncertainty in most aspects of a climate forecast that far out for it to be a meaningful exercise. The same way long term climate average is a more accurate forecasts than attempting to use a weather model two weeks out.
- tony_cannistra 3y ago
  As with many real-world modeling exercises, it's perhaps a fool's errand to attempt to capture the entire space of possibility, unless the pure notion of capturing the domain is what's interesting. In reality there are a number of practical constraints that place limits on the search space for these kinds of models, including ones that are likely genuinely decoupled from CO2 concentrations (think of things like mutation rates).

loceng 3y ago

And then there's the unknown of what genetics might show up down the line once increased CO2 being present starts to be selected for; including I doubt taking into account externalized factors that may occur in larger steps, like once there's more plant life to capture CO2, then animals will become larger with more food (plant and other animals), which then captures-stores more CO2, etc. Is it even remotely possible to accurately extrapolate to what the end points all may look like? It's highly likely it's not unless you're monitoring "everything" for 100s or 1000s of years to see just how far cycles will propagate.

kuhewa 3y ago
> then animals will become larger with more food But see the "temperature size rule". There's too much uncertainty in most aspects of a climate forecast that far out for it to be a meaningful exercise. The same way long term climate average is a more accurate forecasts than attempting to use a weather model two weeks out.
tony_cannistra 3y ago
As with many real-world modeling exercises, it's perhaps a fool's errand to attempt to capture the entire space of possibility, unless the pure notion of capturing the domain is what's interesting. In reality there are a number of practical constraints that place limits on the search space for these kinds of models, including ones that are likely genuinely decoupled from CO2 concentrations (think of things like mutation rates).