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Something that didn't occur to me until reading this is that the Russia-Ukraine war is giving Western allies an opportunity to test weapons and strategies on a

by cedws 3y ago

Something that didn't occur to me until reading this is that the Russia-Ukraine war is giving Western allies an opportunity to test weapons and strategies on a real battlefield. That must surely be anxiety inducing for China that has no such opportunity. I'm surprised Russia and China are allies, considering Russia kicked the hornet's nest and will make annexation of Taiwan harder.

fnordpiglet 3y ago
It’s also depleting western stocks and distracting forces, as is Gaza. If Iran, China, and North Korea were to simultaneously iron out their grievances, the west could not stop them.
- AnimalMuppet 3y ago
  The west could not stop all of them. They probably could stop whoever moved first. As Iran, China, and North Korea are not really allies, nobody wants to be the one who goes first. (And if the one who went first wasn't China, they would probably be not only stopped but stomped.)
- audunw 3y ago
  The artillery being sent to Ukraine isn’t very relevant for Taiwan. And much of what is sent to Ukraine is old stock that was about to expire anyway. If anything, this has given western countries an excuse to ramp up production of new modern stocks that wouldn’t otherwise have been accepted by its citizens. Not sure how Iran and Koreas is relevant. If Iran latched out at its neighbours and that region is plunged into chaos, it’ll hurt China more than USA. China is desperately dependent on oil from that region. USA is a net exporter. There’s not much we could do for South Korea regardless. Seoul will be flattened by artillery before we have time to react. And in the medium term I think what’s left of South Korea could wipe out the North on their own. Not good for China either. Would open a land bridge from a US ally to Chinas mainland. The drone boats Ukraine is developing is a disaster for Chinas invasion plans as well I think. Chinas plan depends on overwhelming Taiwan with thousands of ships, many of which will not have advanced anti ship weapons. If Taiwan can take out most of them with cheap drone boats or even small drone submarines, Chinas plans aren’t viable. I’m sure Taiwan is studying Ukraines solutions closely.
Workaccount2 3y ago
China and Russia are not allies. They are enemies who have some overlapping goals.

by cedws 3y ago

fnordpiglet 3y ago

It’s also depleting western stocks and distracting forces, as is Gaza. If Iran, China, and North Korea were to simultaneously iron out their grievances, the west could not stop them.

AnimalMuppet 3y ago
The west could not stop all of them. They probably could stop whoever moved first. As Iran, China, and North Korea are not really allies, nobody wants to be the one who goes first. (And if the one who went first wasn't China, they would probably be not only stopped but stomped.)
audunw 3y ago
The artillery being sent to Ukraine isn’t very relevant for Taiwan. And much of what is sent to Ukraine is old stock that was about to expire anyway. If anything, this has given western countries an excuse to ramp up production of new modern stocks that wouldn’t otherwise have been accepted by its citizens. Not sure how Iran and Koreas is relevant. If Iran latched out at its neighbours and that region is plunged into chaos, it’ll hurt China more than USA. China is desperately dependent on oil from that region. USA is a net exporter. There’s not much we could do for South Korea regardless. Seoul will be flattened by artillery before we have time to react. And in the medium term I think what’s left of South Korea could wipe out the North on their own. Not good for China either. Would open a land bridge from a US ally to Chinas mainland. The drone boats Ukraine is developing is a disaster for Chinas invasion plans as well I think. Chinas plan depends on overwhelming Taiwan with thousands of ships, many of which will not have advanced anti ship weapons. If Taiwan can take out most of them with cheap drone boats or even small drone submarines, Chinas plans aren’t viable. I’m sure Taiwan is studying Ukraines solutions closely.

Workaccount2 3y ago

China and Russia are not allies. They are enemies who have some overlapping goals.