4 ms·

How is it defendable? How do you defend 10x? What about 11x? Why not 3.5x? This is complete bullshit.

• jstummbillig 3y ago
  > How is it defendable? How do you defend 10x? Uncertainty. Given incomplete information it is common practice to make assumptions about things to give us some starting point from which to act. In this context a round integer value pretty much implies: They are estimating, and they might be completely off. I guess you could say, "Instead of making assumptions with uncertainty, let's not assume anything", but that makes progress in new and uncertain areas really hard.
  • Barrin92 3y ago
    It's a common and bad practice because quantitative language belongs in the domain of risk, not uncertainty. Two very different things. Risk is the world of stationary laws and empirical data. Fluid markets, mortality stats, that kind of thing. The "10x AI productivity boost" is about as real as the "10x engineer", that's to say, the PR department made it up. It's just vibes, but it's a symptom of a culture that unduly reveres anything that sounds "mathy".
    • YetAnotherNick 3y ago
      I think it's pedantic argument. Obviously he meant that his bet is the future is something and willing to work for it. No need to scratch your head. 10x is not maths 10x and no one thinks it is literally 10.0x.