7 ms·

Several hours? Wind is down to a small fraction for several days regularly [1]. Electricity outage should never happen, so you need to protect against a very hi

by cm2187 3y ago

Several hours? Wind is down to a small fraction for several days regularly [1]. Electricity outage should never happen, so you need to protect against a very high percentile of adverse events. 8h of storage won't do. [1] just look at wind production in the UK for this year or last year https://gridwatch.co.uk/ https://gridwatch.co.uk/

pydry 3y ago
>Graham says that the CSIRO modelling showed that at very high levels of wind and solar, a maximum of half a day’s average demand was needed for storage. In some areas of the grid, only around three hours might be needed. >This is an important point, because some renewable critics say that about a week’s worth of storage is needed https://reneweconomy.com.au/much-storage-needed-solar-wind-powered-grid-47605/ https://reneweconomy.com.au/much-storage-needed-solar-wind-p... Something a lot of people forget or don't notice is that solar and wind anticorrelate. The model takes this into account and doesn't assume a 100% wind grid. That would require a lot more storage, but isn't realistic. There will be some differences between Australia and the UK but it's not going to be hours vs. weeks.
- cm2187 3y ago
  It defies common sense that you can make up for wind energy being down to almost nothing for days with 8h worth of energy. Solar will never produce much in the uk, and will produce zero during the cold UK winter nights when consumption is maximal.
  - pydry 3y ago
    >will produce zero during the cold UK winter It currently is a cold winter day in the UK and solar is right now providing 1.8GW of power - almost as much as two small nuclear power plants. Do you have a more realistic mathematical model than the one above to cite?
    - cm2187 3y ago
      No need for a sophisticated mathematical model. Look at wind production last year per grid watch [1], the two peaks in term of energy consumption (around Feb 2022 and Nov 2022 in the "Last Year (Day Averages)" chart correspond to times when wind was low (and therefore gas was high), some days going to near zero. And last winter was an unusualy warm winter. If I can find examples just looking at one year's worth of data, how is this going to survive a once in 25 or 50 years weather event with no wind for something like 3 weeks? [1] https://gridwatch.co.uk/ https://gridwatch.co.uk/
      - pydry 3y ago
        >No need for a sophisticated mathematical model There is definitely a need for a model. Even more so if you start making wild claims about the weather. >how is this going to survive a once in 25 or 50 years You think the sun going out and the wind stops blowing for an entire month once every 25 years? That's quite a brave claim. >And last winter was an unusualy warm winter. I remember. Solar power was unusually productive last winter, heating requirements were a lot lower than usual. The wind didn't stop blowing for a month though.
        cm2187 3y ago
        It only needs to stop blowing for a week for your 8h battery to result in blackouts. And that happens almost every year.
        pydry 3y ago
        If you assume solar panels don't exist perhaps.

by cm2187 3y ago

pydry 3y ago

>Graham says that the CSIRO modelling showed that at very high levels of wind and solar, a maximum of half a day’s average demand was needed for storage. In some areas of the grid, only around three hours might be needed. >This is an important point, because some renewable critics say that about a week’s worth of storage is needed https://reneweconomy.com.au/much-storage-needed-solar-wind-powered-grid-47605/ https://reneweconomy.com.au/much-storage-needed-solar-wind-p... Something a lot of people forget or don't notice is that solar and wind anticorrelate. The model takes this into account and doesn't assume a 100% wind grid. That would require a lot more storage, but isn't realistic. There will be some differences between Australia and the UK but it's not going to be hours vs. weeks.

cm2187 3y ago
It defies common sense that you can make up for wind energy being down to almost nothing for days with 8h worth of energy. Solar will never produce much in the uk, and will produce zero during the cold UK winter nights when consumption is maximal.
- pydry 3y ago
  >will produce zero during the cold UK winter It currently is a cold winter day in the UK and solar is right now providing 1.8GW of power - almost as much as two small nuclear power plants. Do you have a more realistic mathematical model than the one above to cite?
  - cm2187 3y ago
    No need for a sophisticated mathematical model. Look at wind production last year per grid watch [1], the two peaks in term of energy consumption (around Feb 2022 and Nov 2022 in the "Last Year (Day Averages)" chart correspond to times when wind was low (and therefore gas was high), some days going to near zero. And last winter was an unusualy warm winter. If I can find examples just looking at one year's worth of data, how is this going to survive a once in 25 or 50 years weather event with no wind for something like 3 weeks? [1] https://gridwatch.co.uk/ https://gridwatch.co.uk/
    - pydry 3y ago
      >No need for a sophisticated mathematical model There is definitely a need for a model. Even more so if you start making wild claims about the weather. >how is this going to survive a once in 25 or 50 years You think the sun going out and the wind stops blowing for an entire month once every 25 years? That's quite a brave claim. >And last winter was an unusualy warm winter. I remember. Solar power was unusually productive last winter, heating requirements were a lot lower than usual. The wind didn't stop blowing for a month though.
      - cm2187 3y ago
        It only needs to stop blowing for a week for your 8h battery to result in blackouts. And that happens almost every year.
        pydry 3y ago
        If you assume solar panels don't exist perhaps.