I feel like I've been reading a copy of this article every six months for the past ten years or so. The problem with this article and its spiritual predecessor

I feel like I've been reading a copy of this article every six months for the past ten years or so. The problem with this article and its spiritual predecessors is essentially that the author never read _Fooled by Randomness_. He's a successful 20-something; right now, his successes and others' failures look intentional to him, like the natural result of hard work, talent or enthusiasm (or lack thereof). Where's he going to be in ten years? Writing those other articles we see every six months, provisionally entitled "how I screwed up and lost everything." Of course, when that happens he'll probably blame his big setback (and others' successes) on randomness rather than on a lack of hard work, talent or enthusiasm.