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You may be right of course, but I believe the reason for the slow drop is mostly because most of the battery factories currently under production are not online
by Kon5ole 3y ago
You may be right of course, but I believe the reason for the slow drop is mostly because most of the battery factories currently under production are not online yet and EV makers are still grabbing all the batteries they can get. VW just started building one of their planned 6 last year.
Once the transition to EV's is mostly done and car sales fall to normal levels there will be an immense surplus of battery production capacity.
My understanding is also that LFP batteries have basically eliminated the raw materials bottleneck, which was another development that few analysts (or anyone else) were able to predict just a few years ago.
- tooltalk 3y ago>> My understanding is also that LFP batteries have basically eliminated the raw materials bottleneck, << the casuality between the raw material supply bottleneck and LFP would be difficult to demonstrate. LFP has lower energy density and would have required more lithium to get equivalent KWh than what is normally required by high-energy, high-nickel batteries (eg, NCM/A); therefore higher lithium demand, but ... The price of lithium, and other battery raw materials, however, plunged by 75% since last Novemember peak (still falling) -- it's widely understood that the drop is largely caused by slower than expected EV demand (and oversupply). >> but I believe the reason for the slow drop is mostly because most of the battery factories currently under production are not online yet... << GM forecasted earlier this year that their (Ultium) cell cost would drop to $87/KWh by 2025; just last week, GM reported a 40% drop in their cell cost YoY. Sure, there is 400+GWh new US battery production coming up in 2025-2026 and the commodification/mass-production of made batteries would accelerate further price drop.