3 ms·

> You're talking about sudden short-term variance in supply, which is easy to deal with- just build more renewables. Easy as in simple, but I think this dramat

> You're talking about sudden short-term variance in supply, which is easy to deal with- just build more renewables. Easy as in simple, but I think this dramatically skews the price viability. If I need 2x overcapacity then the price to the consumer is 2x per MW of base capacity, and it’s no longer viable to use solar over gas. > It's definitely not a tech problem I disagree. I’m aware of some existing options, my claim is that with a bigger delta, more options become viable to research and implement. For example there was a thread recently where we discussed modulating energy usage in aluminum smelting, which requires a new design for the furnace to keep the temperatures stable. (This tech already exists, but AFAICT it’s not cost-effective to deploy widely.) There are lots of industrial processes which could conceivably modulate their power consumption, but it’s not currently cost-effective to even design these improvements at current levels of peak premium. Tech is downstream of incentives, is what I am saying, and price signals can be a good incentive; many claim that 100% renewable is not viable because of the cost of closing that last 1% of daily variability, I am hypothesizing that the system as a whole could, with appropriate price signals, build the tech to make the demand curve much more mutable. This gets at seasonal variability; if we have a week with lower energy production, then the peak-premium goes up, and maybe we turn off the marginal industrial, residential, and commercial consumers.

bluGill 3y ago
You need most of that over capacity anyway. They still keep generators from the 1920s operational just in case a storm cuts off one town from the grid, turn on those generators and let the linemen fix it a week later
- theptip 3y ago
  I’d like to see numbers backing up this assertion, because everything I have seen suggests the opposite at grid scale. Sure, remote towns will have backups, but the major metro areas do not run at substantial overcapacity ratios. (Else, peakers would not be a thing.)
  - bluGill 3y ago
    It would be really hard. Many businesses in a metro area will have their own private backup generators which contributes to over capacity but doesn't get tracked by utility numbers. Sometimes utilities have programs where a business will on demand switch to their backup generator while the grid is on, thus getting that business off the grid. (private residences also have generators at times, it is common for businesses but both would have to be tracked.)
thaumasiotes 3y ago
> I am hypothesizing that the system as a whole could, with appropriate price signals, build the tech to make the demand curve much more mutable. This is an interesting concept. We used to live in a way that was much more directly connected to the amount of energy we could capture each year; in a good year, everyone would have a lot of food, and in a bad year, there would be famines. Making ourselves dependent on an energy harvest seems like a way to intentionally reintroduce the problem of mass deaths when the harvest doesn't turn out as hoped. Is that something we want?

bluGill 3y ago

You need most of that over capacity anyway. They still keep generators from the 1920s operational just in case a storm cuts off one town from the grid, turn on those generators and let the linemen fix it a week later

theptip 3y ago
I’d like to see numbers backing up this assertion, because everything I have seen suggests the opposite at grid scale. Sure, remote towns will have backups, but the major metro areas do not run at substantial overcapacity ratios. (Else, peakers would not be a thing.)
- bluGill 3y ago
  It would be really hard. Many businesses in a metro area will have their own private backup generators which contributes to over capacity but doesn't get tracked by utility numbers. Sometimes utilities have programs where a business will on demand switch to their backup generator while the grid is on, thus getting that business off the grid. (private residences also have generators at times, it is common for businesses but both would have to be tracked.)

thaumasiotes 3y ago

> I am hypothesizing that the system as a whole could, with appropriate price signals, build the tech to make the demand curve much more mutable. This is an interesting concept. We used to live in a way that was much more directly connected to the amount of energy we could capture each year; in a good year, everyone would have a lot of food, and in a bad year, there would be famines. Making ourselves dependent on an energy harvest seems like a way to intentionally reintroduce the problem of mass deaths when the harvest doesn't turn out as hoped. Is that something we want?