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I would bet that electricity demand goes up, not down. When a good becomes cheaper/more efficient, demand increases.
by vlovich123 3y ago
I would bet that electricity demand goes up, not down. When a good becomes cheaper/more efficient, demand increases.
- hwillis 3y ago1. They're talking about all energy (cars, heat, and electricity), not just electricity. 2. Demand is up in this scenario, not supply, because of all the things being electrified.
- bluGill 3y agoBut the change is not a 1:1 linear ratio. Demand increases, but only if there is pain that more could use. Once a room is bright enough you won't add more light.
- vlovich123 3y agoSure, but you may not be as diligent turning off the lights.
- bluGill 3y agoExactly, but the improved efficiency is more than the loss from leaving it on.
- vlovich123 3y ago> Exactly, but the improved efficiency is more than the loss from leaving it on. The improved efficiency needs to be more than the drop in marginal cost which is what governs demand, nothing to do with how much more electricity you use today. And even then, that relationship isn't linear because a 30% reduction in cost can drive a 60% increase in demand because that reduction puts it in a new price bracket where a lot more people can afford it (since wealth is non-linear). This stuff is super non trivial and has all sorts of higher order effects.
- bluGill 3y agoSometimes others there is no change. HVAC systems won't change demand at all when upgraded to more efficiency .
- lmm 3y agoIt usually isn't. Jevons Paradox.
- nl 3y agoIf prices go down this makes a lot of sense. But there isn't any real reason to think this is implied under a "high renewable" scenario. In-fact, some of efficiency gains are probably driven by increased costs.