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It seems like the World Energy Outlook report the fossil fuel industry gets a lot of airtime. In the 2018 report[1] most of the sections are dedicated to oil an

It seems like the World Energy Outlook report the fossil fuel industry gets a lot of airtime. In the 2018 report[1] most of the sections are dedicated to oil and gas topic and the section on renewables is very skeptical on the viability of renewables. [1] https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2018/ https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2018/

philwelch 3y ago
Based on the recent history of the Texas power grid, the skepticism is more than warranted. The cost per megawatt of capacity for renewables is lower than other sources, but the power only gets generated when the sun is shining or the wind is blowing, which means more reliable energy sources are priced out of being added to the grid. Our most recent near-miss at a statewide outage happened because of unexpectedly low wind. It’s happening in Texas first because we have a smaller grid and it’s deregulated to the point where cheap but unreliable renewables can crowd out other sources of generation. The eastern and western grids will face the same problems in the long run the more and more renewables come to replace other sources of power.
- acdha 3y ago
  That’s how the fossil fuel industry describes it, yes, but that’s just them trying to avoid competition. For example, the 2021 winter outages were caused by power plant operators not wanting to spend money making their plants more robust. During this summer’s heat dome, solar was reliable on days when gas, coal and nuclear power plants were offline due to the heat.
  - philwelch 3y ago
    > That’s how the fossil fuel industry describes it, yes, but that’s just them trying to avoid competition. Renewables, especially construction of new renewables, is a big, lucrative, growing business of its own. That’s actually a direct implication of the triumphant statistics people keep sharing about how much renewable power generation gets built out every year. So the “fossil fuel industry” is not unique in its vested interest to propagandize against its competition. And this incentive is only increased by the movement towards ESG in finance. But if we’re done accusing each other of being shills, let’s get to the substance of the matter at hand here. > For example, the 2021 winter outages were caused by power plant operators not wanting to spend money making their plants more robust. This included the renewables too, of course, along with the entire rest of the state’s infrastructure. But the near outage this summer was directly caused by low wind. There are probably issues with solar as well—heat, and cooling demand along with it, peak in the early evening just as sunlight starts to diminish—but usually wind manages to cover that gap. That doesn’t always happen though.
    - acdha 3y ago
      The near outage this summer was more accurately described as wind being low enough that it almost wasn't able to fill the gap caused by the gas, coal, and nuclear plants going offline. Unlike wind and solar those are quite heat sensitive so you can get nasty correlated failures at peak summer demand, especially if the same weather system causes any kind of interruption to the cooling water supply. And, yes, renewables are becoming a big industry but it’s nowhere near as big as the fossil fuel industry and orders of magnitude less lavishly subsidized. Texas Republicans tried to ban wind and solar expansion because that party has been owned by the oil industry for decades and the renewable industry has nowhere near the same level of lobbying clout.
      - philwelch 3y ago
        > The near outage this summer was more accurately described as wind being low enough that it almost wasn't able to fill the gap caused by the gas, coal, and nuclear plants going offline. I can’t find any good source about your claim of thermal plants going offline in the September incident. ERCOT’s statements consistently blame the combination of high demand and low wind. The federal Department of Energy even issued an order authorizing Texas power plants to exceed normal emissions limits in such an emergency, which is inconsistent with your claim that they “go offline” in these conditions: https://www.ercot.com/about/legal/doe202c https://www.ercot.com/about/legal/doe202c > And, yes, renewables are becoming a big industry but it’s nowhere near as big as the fossil fuel industry and orders of magnitude less lavishly subsidized. I thought we were done accusing each other of being shills. I’ll just point out that there’s significantly more propaganda in favor of renewable energy than in favor of natural gas or nuclear. But this is Hacker News and I am assuming good faith of you rather than accusing you of parroting talking points that were fed to you by Chinese photovoltaic manufacturers or annoying Swedish teenagers. And I am simply asking the same courtesy from you. > Texas Republicans tried to ban wind and solar expansion because that party has been owned by the oil industry for decades I think there is a good faith reason for such a policy. And while I do live in Texas and usually vote for Republicans, I am asking you to engage with me in good faith instead of calling me a shill. Are you capable of that or is the idea that someone can disagree with you about energy policy in good faith beyond your comprehension? Because you seem to be using this idea as a thought-terminating cliche.
Reason077 3y ago
Seems like recent IEA reports have taken a more upbeat and optimistic view in renewables: https://www.iea.org/reports/renewable-energy-market-update-june-2023/executive-summary https://www.iea.org/reports/renewable-energy-market-update-j...

philwelch 3y ago

Based on the recent history of the Texas power grid, the skepticism is more than warranted. The cost per megawatt of capacity for renewables is lower than other sources, but the power only gets generated when the sun is shining or the wind is blowing, which means more reliable energy sources are priced out of being added to the grid. Our most recent near-miss at a statewide outage happened because of unexpectedly low wind. It’s happening in Texas first because we have a smaller grid and it’s deregulated to the point where cheap but unreliable renewables can crowd out other sources of generation. The eastern and western grids will face the same problems in the long run the more and more renewables come to replace other sources of power.

acdha 3y ago
That’s how the fossil fuel industry describes it, yes, but that’s just them trying to avoid competition. For example, the 2021 winter outages were caused by power plant operators not wanting to spend money making their plants more robust. During this summer’s heat dome, solar was reliable on days when gas, coal and nuclear power plants were offline due to the heat.
- philwelch 3y ago
  > That’s how the fossil fuel industry describes it, yes, but that’s just them trying to avoid competition. Renewables, especially construction of new renewables, is a big, lucrative, growing business of its own. That’s actually a direct implication of the triumphant statistics people keep sharing about how much renewable power generation gets built out every year. So the “fossil fuel industry” is not unique in its vested interest to propagandize against its competition. And this incentive is only increased by the movement towards ESG in finance. But if we’re done accusing each other of being shills, let’s get to the substance of the matter at hand here. > For example, the 2021 winter outages were caused by power plant operators not wanting to spend money making their plants more robust. This included the renewables too, of course, along with the entire rest of the state’s infrastructure. But the near outage this summer was directly caused by low wind. There are probably issues with solar as well—heat, and cooling demand along with it, peak in the early evening just as sunlight starts to diminish—but usually wind manages to cover that gap. That doesn’t always happen though.
  - acdha 3y ago
    The near outage this summer was more accurately described as wind being low enough that it almost wasn't able to fill the gap caused by the gas, coal, and nuclear plants going offline. Unlike wind and solar those are quite heat sensitive so you can get nasty correlated failures at peak summer demand, especially if the same weather system causes any kind of interruption to the cooling water supply. And, yes, renewables are becoming a big industry but it’s nowhere near as big as the fossil fuel industry and orders of magnitude less lavishly subsidized. Texas Republicans tried to ban wind and solar expansion because that party has been owned by the oil industry for decades and the renewable industry has nowhere near the same level of lobbying clout.
    - philwelch 3y ago
      > The near outage this summer was more accurately described as wind being low enough that it almost wasn't able to fill the gap caused by the gas, coal, and nuclear plants going offline. I can’t find any good source about your claim of thermal plants going offline in the September incident. ERCOT’s statements consistently blame the combination of high demand and low wind. The federal Department of Energy even issued an order authorizing Texas power plants to exceed normal emissions limits in such an emergency, which is inconsistent with your claim that they “go offline” in these conditions: https://www.ercot.com/about/legal/doe202c https://www.ercot.com/about/legal/doe202c > And, yes, renewables are becoming a big industry but it’s nowhere near as big as the fossil fuel industry and orders of magnitude less lavishly subsidized. I thought we were done accusing each other of being shills. I’ll just point out that there’s significantly more propaganda in favor of renewable energy than in favor of natural gas or nuclear. But this is Hacker News and I am assuming good faith of you rather than accusing you of parroting talking points that were fed to you by Chinese photovoltaic manufacturers or annoying Swedish teenagers. And I am simply asking the same courtesy from you. > Texas Republicans tried to ban wind and solar expansion because that party has been owned by the oil industry for decades I think there is a good faith reason for such a policy. And while I do live in Texas and usually vote for Republicans, I am asking you to engage with me in good faith instead of calling me a shill. Are you capable of that or is the idea that someone can disagree with you about energy policy in good faith beyond your comprehension? Because you seem to be using this idea as a thought-terminating cliche.

Reason077 3y ago

Seems like recent IEA reports have taken a more upbeat and optimistic view in renewables: https://www.iea.org/reports/renewable-energy-market-update-june-2023/executive-summary https://www.iea.org/reports/renewable-energy-market-update-j...