5 ms·

Why do I pay eye watering rents to live in a shoebox while my parents pay 0 rent to live in a massive house? France's electricity prices will either sky rocket

by pydry 3y ago

Why do I pay eye watering rents to live in a shoebox while my parents pay 0 rent to live in a massive house? France's electricity prices will either sky rocket when their paid off 70s nuclear plants finally age out or they will keep running them and open up an exciting new world of nuclear disaster risks. Germany, meanwhile, will be sitting pretty once it has paid off the capex on its far cheaper green energy.

realusername 3y ago
> Germany, meanwhile, will be sitting pretty once it has paid off the capex on its far cheaper green energy. Well no, not really. what's preventing that is the low lifespan of renewables. They are close to 0% of the way of their 2050 goals and will understand the meaning of exponential installation pretty soon.
- pydry 3y ago
  This is just wrong. They produce roughly 50% from renewables. The lifespan is baked into LCOE - the measure where nuclear power is 5x as expensive.
  - realusername 3y ago
    That's exactly what I said yes, everything (or very close to) will be decommissioned by 2050. If you have 50GW of renewables installed and you have a goal of 100GW, you need to install ... 100GW.
    - cinntaile 3y ago
      The renewables they have right now of course count towards their 2050 goals, that they need to get replaced eventually is a given but doesn't zero out their current contribution towards that goal.
      - realusername 3y ago
        No they don't for the most majority since they have to be decommissioned. They have to install renewables every month just to keep the existing capacity running, not even talking about expanding it.
        cinntaile 3y ago
        You can just look at the data to see they're constantly expanding so I'm not sure where you got this from?
        realusername 3y ago
        The data is going the exact same way as I'm saying, they are planning an exponential install curve to counter the low lifespan effect. Next year, they double the solar installation rate compared to last year, then by 2025, they almost double it again.
        cinntaile 3y ago
        The install curve has been exponential since the beginning. The thing I responded to wasn't really that though, it was your peculiar conclusion they had come nowhere, 0% as you called it, towards their 2050 goals. And the reason for that was the EOL renewables that needed to be reinstalled.
        realusername 3y ago
        I didn't say that they have come nowhere, just that they'll have to do it all over again by 2050 which is often forgotten.
        pydry 3y ago
        The projected lifetime of these assets is baked into the LCOE and the LCOE is still 5x lower. Theres also very little risk to continuing to run solar panels or wind turbines past their projected lifespans whereas if you do that with a nuclear plant the risks of disaster start increasing exponentially. Germany will probably find that a lot of their green energy built today will last a lot longer than projected and this will reduce their electricity prices.

by pydry 3y ago

realusername 3y ago

> Germany, meanwhile, will be sitting pretty once it has paid off the capex on its far cheaper green energy. Well no, not really. what's preventing that is the low lifespan of renewables. They are close to 0% of the way of their 2050 goals and will understand the meaning of exponential installation pretty soon.

pydry 3y ago
This is just wrong. They produce roughly 50% from renewables. The lifespan is baked into LCOE - the measure where nuclear power is 5x as expensive.
- realusername 3y ago
  That's exactly what I said yes, everything (or very close to) will be decommissioned by 2050. If you have 50GW of renewables installed and you have a goal of 100GW, you need to install ... 100GW.
  - cinntaile 3y ago
    The renewables they have right now of course count towards their 2050 goals, that they need to get replaced eventually is a given but doesn't zero out their current contribution towards that goal.
    - realusername 3y ago
      No they don't for the most majority since they have to be decommissioned. They have to install renewables every month just to keep the existing capacity running, not even talking about expanding it.
      - cinntaile 3y ago
        You can just look at the data to see they're constantly expanding so I'm not sure where you got this from?
        realusername 3y ago
        The data is going the exact same way as I'm saying, they are planning an exponential install curve to counter the low lifespan effect. Next year, they double the solar installation rate compared to last year, then by 2025, they almost double it again.
        cinntaile 3y ago
        The install curve has been exponential since the beginning. The thing I responded to wasn't really that though, it was your peculiar conclusion they had come nowhere, 0% as you called it, towards their 2050 goals. And the reason for that was the EOL renewables that needed to be reinstalled.
        realusername 3y ago
        I didn't say that they have come nowhere, just that they'll have to do it all over again by 2050 which is often forgotten.
        pydry 3y ago
        The projected lifetime of these assets is baked into the LCOE and the LCOE is still 5x lower. Theres also very little risk to continuing to run solar panels or wind turbines past their projected lifespans whereas if you do that with a nuclear plant the risks of disaster start increasing exponentially. Germany will probably find that a lot of their green energy built today will last a lot longer than projected and this will reduce their electricity prices.