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And that's exactly why private markets do not work for electricity and will never work. The grid needs to work 100% of the time and the policies should reflect

And that's exactly why private markets do not work for electricity and will never work. The grid needs to work 100% of the time and the policies should reflect that.

bruce511 3y ago
On the one hand I agree on the other hand I think this is an issue with nuclear, not markets. For example, the market may complement cheap solar with cheap storage. Certainly cracking grid-level storage coupled with cheap solar, will change the game. (And be very profitable) If you start a new nuclear plan today you're betting the storage problem won't be solved for 15 years (until nuclear operational) or 40 odd years after that (payback period.) That's a bold bet. All it takes us for compressed-air-in-old-mines (or whatever) to work well, and you're out of luck. The private market will exhaust storage ideas before investing in new nuclear. Which is your point. Which means a govt betting on storage failure. That's a bet I'm not sure govt wants to make.
- Mawr 3y ago
  The bold, bold bet of building time proven solutions instead of hoping we'll come up with better tech just in the nick of time. Don't build nuclear, don't build rail, just cross your fingers and pray we'll solve mass energy storage and self driving in time.
- realusername 3y ago
  There's no cheap storage being able to sustain grid loads, that doesn't exist regardless of what the futuristic articles will tell you on the internet. That might happen for sure but if we go that route of non existing tech, there's even better than the magical storage, there's fusion and unlike the magical storage tech, we know for sure that it exists. > If you start a new nuclear plan today you're betting the storage problem won't be solved for 15 years (until nuclear operational) or 40 odd years after that (payback period.) That's a bold bet. If you bet on a full renewable grid, you're betting that some unknown tech will appear in the next decade to solve all your problems, yeah no thanks, that's not how you plan infrastructure on the long term. R&D and deployment are two very different things. And while you are waiting, any cost to sustain the load (like gas plant) is unrecoverable. > The private market will exhaust storage ideas before investing in new nuclear. Which is your point. Hence why I'm saying we don't need the private market which is creating more problems than solutions here. The private market solution was to use more gas which is bad for climate change and bad for the diplomatic relationships as seen in the EU during the Russian war.
  - oezi 3y ago
    By picking gas as the backup solution and solar (+ some wind) as the main source of electricity, Europe has picked the most likely overall winners of the energy transition. Many countries in Europe are rapidly approaching 100% solar electricity and the plans are looking to vastly overprovision today's demand because we need to reduce the non-electricity fossil consumption next. This market has very different needs than the 100% grid stability of today's electricity usage. We might for instance not be able to charge cars in winter nights if there is no wind. Gas peaking plants will be there but their consumption of gas will become much less.
    - realusername 3y ago
      it sounds like a parallel universe, in todays Europe (the reality), the grid got almost shut down by the Russian war in Ukraine and its gas dependency. The only salvation went from some even dirtier gas imported from the US and there's further talks with Algeria, Qatar and Azerbaidjan to increase gas imports (all great democracies aligned with the EU that won't cause any issue I'm sure). The renewable policies in the EU were a diplomatic and an environmental failure. And for now it's "only" the gas dependencies causing issues, everybody can just pray that China doesn't block panel exports to make the situation even more explosive than it already is. > We might for instance not be able to charge cars in winter nights if there is no wind. The issue with wind is that when it's down, it's really really down to single digits. It's not just about charging electric cars or not but bringing something else to stabilize the grid.
    - lm28469 3y ago
      > Many countries in Europe are rapidly approaching 100% solar electricity What ? Spain is barely at 25% solar and it's basically a desert with sun all year round.... can't find a better place for it. Try that in Sweden lol https://www.euronews.com/green/2022/11/09/the-netherlands-germany-and-spain-which-european-countries-are-leading-the-solar-revolutio#:~:text=Looking%20at%20the%20percentage%20of,cent%20respectively%20during%20summer%202022 https://www.euronews.com/green/2022/11/09/the-netherlands-ge....
    - KptMarchewa 3y ago

And that's exactly why private markets do not work for electricity and will never work. The grid needs to work 100% of the time and the policies should reflect that.

bruce511 3y ago

On the one hand I agree on the other hand I think this is an issue with nuclear, not markets. For example, the market may complement cheap solar with cheap storage. Certainly cracking grid-level storage coupled with cheap solar, will change the game. (And be very profitable) If you start a new nuclear plan today you're betting the storage problem won't be solved for 15 years (until nuclear operational) or 40 odd years after that (payback period.) That's a bold bet. All it takes us for compressed-air-in-old-mines (or whatever) to work well, and you're out of luck. The private market will exhaust storage ideas before investing in new nuclear. Which is your point. Which means a govt betting on storage failure. That's a bet I'm not sure govt wants to make.

Mawr 3y ago
The bold, bold bet of building time proven solutions instead of hoping we'll come up with better tech just in the nick of time. Don't build nuclear, don't build rail, just cross your fingers and pray we'll solve mass energy storage and self driving in time.
realusername 3y ago
There's no cheap storage being able to sustain grid loads, that doesn't exist regardless of what the futuristic articles will tell you on the internet. That might happen for sure but if we go that route of non existing tech, there's even better than the magical storage, there's fusion and unlike the magical storage tech, we know for sure that it exists. > If you start a new nuclear plan today you're betting the storage problem won't be solved for 15 years (until nuclear operational) or 40 odd years after that (payback period.) That's a bold bet. If you bet on a full renewable grid, you're betting that some unknown tech will appear in the next decade to solve all your problems, yeah no thanks, that's not how you plan infrastructure on the long term. R&D and deployment are two very different things. And while you are waiting, any cost to sustain the load (like gas plant) is unrecoverable. > The private market will exhaust storage ideas before investing in new nuclear. Which is your point. Hence why I'm saying we don't need the private market which is creating more problems than solutions here. The private market solution was to use more gas which is bad for climate change and bad for the diplomatic relationships as seen in the EU during the Russian war.
- oezi 3y ago
  By picking gas as the backup solution and solar (+ some wind) as the main source of electricity, Europe has picked the most likely overall winners of the energy transition. Many countries in Europe are rapidly approaching 100% solar electricity and the plans are looking to vastly overprovision today's demand because we need to reduce the non-electricity fossil consumption next. This market has very different needs than the 100% grid stability of today's electricity usage. We might for instance not be able to charge cars in winter nights if there is no wind. Gas peaking plants will be there but their consumption of gas will become much less.
  - realusername 3y ago
    it sounds like a parallel universe, in todays Europe (the reality), the grid got almost shut down by the Russian war in Ukraine and its gas dependency. The only salvation went from some even dirtier gas imported from the US and there's further talks with Algeria, Qatar and Azerbaidjan to increase gas imports (all great democracies aligned with the EU that won't cause any issue I'm sure). The renewable policies in the EU were a diplomatic and an environmental failure. And for now it's "only" the gas dependencies causing issues, everybody can just pray that China doesn't block panel exports to make the situation even more explosive than it already is. > We might for instance not be able to charge cars in winter nights if there is no wind. The issue with wind is that when it's down, it's really really down to single digits. It's not just about charging electric cars or not but bringing something else to stabilize the grid.
  - lm28469 3y ago
    > Many countries in Europe are rapidly approaching 100% solar electricity What ? Spain is barely at 25% solar and it's basically a desert with sun all year round.... can't find a better place for it. Try that in Sweden lol https://www.euronews.com/green/2022/11/09/the-netherlands-germany-and-spain-which-european-countries-are-leading-the-solar-revolutio#:~:text=Looking%20at%20the%20percentage%20of,cent%20respectively%20during%20summer%202022 https://www.euronews.com/green/2022/11/09/the-netherlands-ge....
  - KptMarchewa 3y ago