We'll see, but I would argue that at least for most of the conversations worth having, fragmentation is good. It is of course annoying and not what anyone wants

We'll see, but I would argue that at least for most of the conversations worth having, fragmentation is good. It is of course annoying and not what anyone wants in the short term, but it's also the only thing that has been observed in practice to semi-reliably prevent a social space from going to shit. Broad reach implies the strength of any one social relationship going to zero, and you have to multiply that small value by a big number to get any value worth the effort. And we all know where that logic leads. On the other hand, people will probably do everything they can to "fix" it or work around it and broaden their reach, so it's hard to say anything about any specific technology or frontend.