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I would rather trust the opinions of experienced criminal lawyers than someone who gets their information by running a "sentencing points" calculator: https://

I would rather trust the opinions of experienced criminal lawyers than someone who gets their information by running a "sentencing points" calculator: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-03/sbf-s-inner-circle-delivered-a-conviction-what-s-next-for-them?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTY5OTAxODg5MywiZXhwIjoxNjk5NjIzNjkzLCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJTMlNLR1lUMVVNMFcwMSIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiI2REU0NzkyMUZBRTE0QTdBODg0NDMxQjMxRDQ0QzQwQiJ9.g4MJJuvvCF_PN7cQ_pwHGmSVdLOu9p2QC-Xms_DYy-I https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-03/sbf-s-inn... "Ellison, Wang and Singh will likely get no or very little prison time for their testimony, several criminal defense lawyers who’ve followed the case said."

galleywest200 3y ago
Defense lawyers who did not sign their name to this prediction?
- verteu 3y ago
  Here's a quote from a former federal prosecutor on the record: https://techcrunch.com/2023/10/24/ex-sdny-prosecutor-says-caroline-ellison-gary-wang-and-nishad-singh-probably-wont-get-jail-time/ https://techcrunch.com/2023/10/24/ex-sdny-prosecutor-says-ca...
semiquaver 3y ago
All the concrete examples in that article are of cooperating witnesses who “only” got five years when they were facing life. Gary wang might not get any time but Caroline Ellison pled to charges carrying 110 years. Leniency for her means 3-5 years incarcerated.
- pclmulqdq 3y ago
  You mean the one concrete example of the mob boss who got 5 years for 19 murders because he cooperated, right? In your mind, are 19 murders equivalent to 7 counts of fraud? Do you realize that those 19 murders likely carried 19 consecutive life sentences as a maximum sentence?
  - scott_w 3y ago
    That's not how sentencing guidelines work. The judge won't look at what was handed out to a murderer to decide how to handle a fraud case. They'll look at fraud cases to decide that.
    - pclmulqdq 3y ago
      The parent commenter had decided that "life for 19 murders = 110 years for fraud," so she would get 3-5 years. I agree with you that they are not analogous. However, all of the expert opinion I have seen on this suggests that there will be no jail time.
      - semiquaver 3y ago
        There was a murder example and a fraud example in the article. Comparison is different than equation.
    - dragonwriter 3y ago
      Well, no, the way the guidelines work is that they’ll look at the guidelines themselves. But presumably there will be at least some effort to secure a substantial downward departure from the guidelines sentence.
      - scott_w 3y ago
        Well yes but that’s kind of a roundabout way of comparing fraud sentences with fraud sentences ;-)
    - AtlasBarfed 3y ago
      And fraud is nonviolent! Plus no repeat offender, and soft slush money and influence that the judicial system is awash in. SBF even if he gets a huge sentence will just get eventually pardoned after 6-10 years. Again, soft slush money.
      - eric_cc 3y ago
tim333 3y ago
There are good and bad reasons for. Ellison getting off. Good - she was SBF's girlfriend and was told what to do by him. Bad - her dad, an MIT economist worked with Gary Gensler, head of the SEC. They probably have connections
- pclmulqdq 3y ago
  That "good" reason sounds pretty sexist to me, when she was also a Stanford-educated Jane Streeter before their polycule ran off to do the kimchi arbitrage and later found FTX. I would agree with you that it's a good reason if there were evidence of the coercion. I don't think we can assume it outright.
  - red-iron-pine 3y ago
    > Jane Streeter before their polycule ran off to do the kimchi arbitrage and later found FTX. what does any of that mean?
    - pclmulqdq 3y ago
      * She worked at Jane Street. * She and a few other people were in relationships with SBF and/or each other at the time. A polycule is generally a connected graph of n > 2 people (the nodes) in romantic/sexual relationships (the edges). * The kimchi arbitrage was a trade where you bought BTC for USD somewhere other than Korea, transferred them from the non-Korean exchange to a private wallet, then sold those BTC for Won in Korea, and then sold those Won for USD (and repeat the cycle). It worked because Korea had strict capital controls for its citizens that meant that the price of bitcoins on native exchanges was substantially higher than outside. It also carried tremendous risk because you had to wait for those bitcoins to settle in your private wallet at each cycle, effectively exposing you to risk associated with fluctuations in the bitcoin price. Physical movement in and out of South Korea is part of the Kimchi arbitrage, so you have to "run off" to do it.
      - mseepgood 3y ago

galleywest200 3y ago

Defense lawyers who did not sign their name to this prediction?

verteu 3y ago
Here's a quote from a former federal prosecutor on the record: https://techcrunch.com/2023/10/24/ex-sdny-prosecutor-says-caroline-ellison-gary-wang-and-nishad-singh-probably-wont-get-jail-time/ https://techcrunch.com/2023/10/24/ex-sdny-prosecutor-says-ca...

semiquaver 3y ago

All the concrete examples in that article are of cooperating witnesses who “only” got five years when they were facing life. Gary wang might not get any time but Caroline Ellison pled to charges carrying 110 years. Leniency for her means 3-5 years incarcerated.

pclmulqdq 3y ago
You mean the one concrete example of the mob boss who got 5 years for 19 murders because he cooperated, right? In your mind, are 19 murders equivalent to 7 counts of fraud? Do you realize that those 19 murders likely carried 19 consecutive life sentences as a maximum sentence?
- scott_w 3y ago
  That's not how sentencing guidelines work. The judge won't look at what was handed out to a murderer to decide how to handle a fraud case. They'll look at fraud cases to decide that.
  - pclmulqdq 3y ago
    The parent commenter had decided that "life for 19 murders = 110 years for fraud," so she would get 3-5 years. I agree with you that they are not analogous. However, all of the expert opinion I have seen on this suggests that there will be no jail time.
    - semiquaver 3y ago
      There was a murder example and a fraud example in the article. Comparison is different than equation.
  - dragonwriter 3y ago
    Well, no, the way the guidelines work is that they’ll look at the guidelines themselves. But presumably there will be at least some effort to secure a substantial downward departure from the guidelines sentence.
    - scott_w 3y ago
      Well yes but that’s kind of a roundabout way of comparing fraud sentences with fraud sentences ;-)
  - AtlasBarfed 3y ago
    And fraud is nonviolent! Plus no repeat offender, and soft slush money and influence that the judicial system is awash in. SBF even if he gets a huge sentence will just get eventually pardoned after 6-10 years. Again, soft slush money.
    - eric_cc 3y ago

tim333 3y ago

There are good and bad reasons for. Ellison getting off. Good - she was SBF's girlfriend and was told what to do by him. Bad - her dad, an MIT economist worked with Gary Gensler, head of the SEC. They probably have connections

pclmulqdq 3y ago
That "good" reason sounds pretty sexist to me, when she was also a Stanford-educated Jane Streeter before their polycule ran off to do the kimchi arbitrage and later found FTX. I would agree with you that it's a good reason if there were evidence of the coercion. I don't think we can assume it outright.
- red-iron-pine 3y ago
  > Jane Streeter before their polycule ran off to do the kimchi arbitrage and later found FTX. what does any of that mean?
  - pclmulqdq 3y ago
    * She worked at Jane Street. * She and a few other people were in relationships with SBF and/or each other at the time. A polycule is generally a connected graph of n > 2 people (the nodes) in romantic/sexual relationships (the edges). * The kimchi arbitrage was a trade where you bought BTC for USD somewhere other than Korea, transferred them from the non-Korean exchange to a private wallet, then sold those BTC for Won in Korea, and then sold those Won for USD (and repeat the cycle). It worked because Korea had strict capital controls for its citizens that meant that the price of bitcoins on native exchanges was substantially higher than outside. It also carried tremendous risk because you had to wait for those bitcoins to settle in your private wallet at each cycle, effectively exposing you to risk associated with fluctuations in the bitcoin price. Physical movement in and out of South Korea is part of the Kimchi arbitrage, so you have to "run off" to do it.
    - mseepgood 3y ago