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EVs are working great. The market keeps on growing by healthy percentages quarter on quarter, year on year. This year is no exception to that. The trouble for s
by jillesvangurp 3y ago
EVs are working great. The market keeps on growing by healthy percentages quarter on quarter, year on year. This year is no exception to that. The trouble for some manufacturers is that they aren't able to tap into that growth and are under-performing.
GM, Toyota, and Ford talk a lot about EVs but they struggle to build a lot of them. Upstarts like Rivian are actually threatening to displace these companies in terms of volume production of EVs. That's how bad it is. And of course Tesla and a range of Korean, Vietnamese, and Chinese manufacturers are already running circles around the legacy manufacturers with about an order of magnitude difference in volume production. And profits.
It's just the legacy manufacturers that are struggling to keep up. Some are further than others. But they all are burdened by supply chains that are mismatched with their EV strategy, legacy business units and product lines that are facing a steep cliff in terms of competitiveness and profitability, and just the reality of having to basically transition away from that on an accelerated timeline. And they are trying to figure out how to manufacture competitive EVs at scale and aren't as far as they'd like to be relative to their competition.
The strategy of building transitional vehicles that can be delivered in ICE, hybrid, or bev versions is flopping hard. They are compromise vehicles and just not as good as pure battery electric vehicles. More expensive to make, less efficient with space, weight, etc. Less desirable to own. Less competitive in what is a pretty competitive market. And priced unrealistically high to "protect" the "cheaper" hybrid and ICE range.
That was all fine until the macroeconomic circumstances changed. Some countries are already in a recession and others are pondering the semantics of whether they are or aren't in a recession. Interest rates have gone up and the cheap capital needed to bootstrap new EV manufacturing capacity is evaporating rapidly. And on top of that the new entrants in this market have started a price war in China. And of course sales are down in a recession. EVs are affected. Ice vehicles are affected more. And that's what legacy manufacturers depend on for revenue. Despite this, the EV market is still growing. But weaker companies might not make it. And the likes of the companies mentioned in the article are looking weak. It wouldn't be the first time for GM to go bankrupt. And they might need to do that again to cut loose from their legacy business.
The next few years are going to be brutal for these companies. The US is lagging other countries a bit but basically, like elsewhere, EVs are going from single digit (most of the US) to double digit percentage (much of northern Europe) market share to eventually a majority market share (Norway). Price points are coming down too. Sub 20k$ vehicles are already on the market. Just not in the US because of import regulations. But the world market is where the money is. It's going to be a massacre there for ICE vehicle manufacturers. All that EV growth is going to come out of their revenue. Unless they figure out how to take a cut of that, they are going to be going out of business.