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Looking online I see reports that FTX owes its creditors $3B. If Anthropic has 6.5x then the initial $500 million is now worth $3.25B. Is it actually possible

Looking online I see reports that FTX owes its creditors $3B. If Anthropic has 6.5x then the initial $500 million is now worth $3.25B. Is it actually possible that all creditors will get their money back? Pretty crazy if so.

brucethemoose2 3y ago
In a slightly different universe, the literally criminal risk might have worked a little longer. Then again, GenAI perhaps undermines the notion of NFTs and "digital art/assets as valuable fungible commodities." It was really wierd seeing Stable Diffusion take off as NFTs were collapsing... so maybe there is no universe where FTX fakes it until they make it.
- PretzelPirate 3y ago
  Keep in mind that "NFTs representing digital art" are a subset of what NFTs are. GenAI might have impacted art tokens, but wouldn't affect NFTs as a whole.
  - godzillabrennus 3y ago
    That’s right, NFT’s are a tool for low talent charlatans to grift at scale off of laypeople by claiming they will make money buying them. The digital art was just one such con.
    - zoklet-enjoyer 3y ago
      The concept of NFTs for art is pretty new. I first heard about the idea of NFTs in 2013 and that was using them for things like deeds to land and vehicles.
      - simonw 3y ago
        ... which remains a terrible idea, because what happens to your land or vehicle if you lose your keys / forget your pass phrase? Or if someone else phishes you?
      - adgjlsfhk1 3y ago
        which is incredibly stupid because a nft is fundamentally incapable of solving these challenges (owning the nft means nothing if a court determines someone else owns the house)
        derivagral 3y ago
        what about an org that issues them as e.g. season tickets, and makes a market for them?
  - brucethemoose2 3y ago
    The whole idea of GenAI is to make purely digital content "cheap." And that's basically NFT's niche, as I understand it. Why bother commoditizing the digital space when (according to GenAI acolytes) digital scarcity is going to disappear anyway? I dunno about NFTs representing real world assets either. It feels like the order is fundamentally lost once that jump to the real world made.
    - marssaxman 3y ago
      > digital scarcity is going to disappear anyway? Digital scarcity is an artificial creation of copyright law, bought by people who had a vested interest in porting analog rules over to the new world after the infinitely error-free replicability of digital goods threatened their profit model. If generative AI puts them back in the same quandary, they will simply buy more laws and continue protecting their wealth.
      - tsimionescu 3y ago
        Copyright law has the exact same purpose for digital goods as it did for physical books. Copying books has not really been hard since the 1450s or so. Copyright has always been about maintaining the value of books and other art works in the face of vastly cheaper copying. The only important difference between physical copyright and digital copyright is the fact that you aren't allowed, in most jurisdictions, to sell on your legally obtained digital copy of something the same way you are for a physical copy. And even this is understandable. The big problem with copyright is not the existence of it. It's the absurd terms it has gotten to. If copyright maxxed out at, say, 10 years, or even 20, we would live in a much better place than either today or even than a world with no copyright at all.
peter422 3y ago
Much like the infamous FTT token, just because it’s worth that much on paper doesn’t mean that is what you could sell it for today. I say this as a person with chunks of stock in a few private companies. And obviously for the people impacted, it’s quite a loss to get all your money over a year after you tried to withdraw it, even if you do get it all.
- wrsh07 3y ago
  I am fairly confident there is private money that would gladly buy 3.5 billion worth of anthropic at the current price But 100%, it's not just about getting repaid. Yes that helps, but not having your money last year might have mattered to some ftx customers
nerdbert 3y ago
Can a $3B nominal stake in Anthropic actually be liquidated for $3B?
- nyssos 3y ago
  Openly, and all at once? No chance whatsoever.
  - bertil 3y ago
    AI market is hot. What makes you say that: no one has that kind of cash?
    - duskwuff 3y ago
      Well, the most obvious problem is that Anthropic isn't a publicly traded company.
      - dboreham 3y ago
        It can be privately traded.
        s1artibartfast 3y ago
        why do you assume that? Many stocks have riders to prevent private trading.
        bertil 3y ago
        I’m assuming, given the circumstances, that you can ask all the investors if they are willing to help.
        s1artibartfast 3y ago
        What do you mean Buy help? Do you mean ask investors like Google if they want to purchase another 3 billion of shares from the FTX creditors?
FireBeyond 3y ago
If I'm a creditor in FTX, it's a pretty big gamble, and I'm definitely not sure I'd be willing to settle for "sure, give me some shares in some AI company...". A significant chance that value craters, after all.
- ramraj07 3y ago
  As long as you’re able to sell those shares immediately, a bunch of money loaded investors will be waiting to get your fraction of the AI pie from you.
  - bertil 3y ago
    I think that’s the most likely outcome: look for a buyer willing to take all the shares at market value, but also willing to offer shares to creditors willing to keep some Anthropic at a private valuation. Not sure if there’s a risk they’ll be more than a thousand people, triggering the need for an IPO — which presumably Anthropic would oppose.
  - nyssos 3y ago
    > As long as you’re able to sell those shares immediately You can't. Trades in even the most liquid private companies can still take weeks to close, if not longer. Add on the transfer restrictions that Anthropic almost certainly has, and you're going to be holding those shares for a long time.
    - quickthrower2 3y ago
      Bankruptcy must have powers though. In theory a corporation/trust could carry on owning those shares and then that entity gets sold on.
- yieldcrv 3y ago
  you would settle for cash after the FTX trustees sell those shares on private secondary markets
arolihas 3y ago
Someone has to buy and liquidate all that stock. Seems unlikely.
- CamelCaseName 3y ago
  Seeing as Google and Amazon just closed billion dollar deals buying up Anthropic equity, it seems quite likely in my opinion.
  - arolihas 3y ago
    They're buying it and holding it for the long run. Maybe it is as simple as letting them and other privileged parties buy more from FTX's stake and then redirecting the proceeds to each creditor.

brucethemoose2 3y ago

In a slightly different universe, the literally criminal risk might have worked a little longer. Then again, GenAI perhaps undermines the notion of NFTs and "digital art/assets as valuable fungible commodities." It was really wierd seeing Stable Diffusion take off as NFTs were collapsing... so maybe there is no universe where FTX fakes it until they make it.

PretzelPirate 3y ago
Keep in mind that "NFTs representing digital art" are a subset of what NFTs are. GenAI might have impacted art tokens, but wouldn't affect NFTs as a whole.
- godzillabrennus 3y ago
  That’s right, NFT’s are a tool for low talent charlatans to grift at scale off of laypeople by claiming they will make money buying them. The digital art was just one such con.
  - zoklet-enjoyer 3y ago
    The concept of NFTs for art is pretty new. I first heard about the idea of NFTs in 2013 and that was using them for things like deeds to land and vehicles.
    - simonw 3y ago
      ... which remains a terrible idea, because what happens to your land or vehicle if you lose your keys / forget your pass phrase? Or if someone else phishes you?
    - adgjlsfhk1 3y ago
      which is incredibly stupid because a nft is fundamentally incapable of solving these challenges (owning the nft means nothing if a court determines someone else owns the house)
      - derivagral 3y ago
        what about an org that issues them as e.g. season tickets, and makes a market for them?
- brucethemoose2 3y ago
  The whole idea of GenAI is to make purely digital content "cheap." And that's basically NFT's niche, as I understand it. Why bother commoditizing the digital space when (according to GenAI acolytes) digital scarcity is going to disappear anyway? I dunno about NFTs representing real world assets either. It feels like the order is fundamentally lost once that jump to the real world made.
  - marssaxman 3y ago
    > digital scarcity is going to disappear anyway? Digital scarcity is an artificial creation of copyright law, bought by people who had a vested interest in porting analog rules over to the new world after the infinitely error-free replicability of digital goods threatened their profit model. If generative AI puts them back in the same quandary, they will simply buy more laws and continue protecting their wealth.
    - tsimionescu 3y ago
      Copyright law has the exact same purpose for digital goods as it did for physical books. Copying books has not really been hard since the 1450s or so. Copyright has always been about maintaining the value of books and other art works in the face of vastly cheaper copying. The only important difference between physical copyright and digital copyright is the fact that you aren't allowed, in most jurisdictions, to sell on your legally obtained digital copy of something the same way you are for a physical copy. And even this is understandable. The big problem with copyright is not the existence of it. It's the absurd terms it has gotten to. If copyright maxxed out at, say, 10 years, or even 20, we would live in a much better place than either today or even than a world with no copyright at all.

peter422 3y ago

Much like the infamous FTT token, just because it’s worth that much on paper doesn’t mean that is what you could sell it for today. I say this as a person with chunks of stock in a few private companies. And obviously for the people impacted, it’s quite a loss to get all your money over a year after you tried to withdraw it, even if you do get it all.

wrsh07 3y ago
I am fairly confident there is private money that would gladly buy 3.5 billion worth of anthropic at the current price But 100%, it's not just about getting repaid. Yes that helps, but not having your money last year might have mattered to some ftx customers

nerdbert 3y ago

Can a $3B nominal stake in Anthropic actually be liquidated for $3B?

nyssos 3y ago
Openly, and all at once? No chance whatsoever.
- bertil 3y ago
  AI market is hot. What makes you say that: no one has that kind of cash?
  - duskwuff 3y ago
    Well, the most obvious problem is that Anthropic isn't a publicly traded company.
    - dboreham 3y ago
      It can be privately traded.
      - s1artibartfast 3y ago
        why do you assume that? Many stocks have riders to prevent private trading.
        bertil 3y ago
        I’m assuming, given the circumstances, that you can ask all the investors if they are willing to help.
        s1artibartfast 3y ago
        What do you mean Buy help? Do you mean ask investors like Google if they want to purchase another 3 billion of shares from the FTX creditors?

FireBeyond 3y ago

If I'm a creditor in FTX, it's a pretty big gamble, and I'm definitely not sure I'd be willing to settle for "sure, give me some shares in some AI company...". A significant chance that value craters, after all.

ramraj07 3y ago
As long as you’re able to sell those shares immediately, a bunch of money loaded investors will be waiting to get your fraction of the AI pie from you.
- bertil 3y ago
  I think that’s the most likely outcome: look for a buyer willing to take all the shares at market value, but also willing to offer shares to creditors willing to keep some Anthropic at a private valuation. Not sure if there’s a risk they’ll be more than a thousand people, triggering the need for an IPO — which presumably Anthropic would oppose.
- nyssos 3y ago
  > As long as you’re able to sell those shares immediately You can't. Trades in even the most liquid private companies can still take weeks to close, if not longer. Add on the transfer restrictions that Anthropic almost certainly has, and you're going to be holding those shares for a long time.
  - quickthrower2 3y ago
    Bankruptcy must have powers though. In theory a corporation/trust could carry on owning those shares and then that entity gets sold on.
yieldcrv 3y ago
you would settle for cash after the FTX trustees sell those shares on private secondary markets

arolihas 3y ago

Someone has to buy and liquidate all that stock. Seems unlikely.

CamelCaseName 3y ago
Seeing as Google and Amazon just closed billion dollar deals buying up Anthropic equity, it seems quite likely in my opinion.
- arolihas 3y ago
  They're buying it and holding it for the long run. Maybe it is as simple as letting them and other privileged parties buy more from FTX's stake and then redirecting the proceeds to each creditor.