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The consequences were in fact catastrophic for SBF, so this surely can't be a demonstration that consequentialism is bad. If a magic oracle (that's always been
by Smaug123 3y ago
The consequences were in fact catastrophic for SBF, so this surely can't be a demonstration that consequentialism is bad. If a magic oracle (that's always been right before) had told SBF that this was going to happen, he presumably wouldn't have done it, because as a good consequentialist he would recognise that its consequences were bad for him.
He literally told us the problem, at least once, when he appeared on Conversations with Tyler well before all this came out. He said himself that he would fall victim to the St Petersburg paradox:
> COWEN: Then you keep on playing the game. So, what’s the chance we’re left with anything? Don’t I just St. Petersburg paradox you into nonexistence?
> BANKMAN-FRIED: Well, not necessarily. Maybe you St. Petersburg paradox into an enormously valuable existence. That’s the other option.
(When I listened to it at the time, I didn't believe he could possibly believe this, because it's so patently absurd. I even remember exactly where I was at the time that I heard him say this on the podcast, it stuck out so badly. But it turns out he did believe it!)